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Submitted URL:
https://order.weshield.us/e3t/Ctc/RI+113/cZZj304/VVMFPh3WxrMrW1n1jJW67PfGrW26rJbN4T44QYN7Y8_2S3kWFpV1-WJV7CgVv4W4gHrL18hvh...
Effective URL:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/24/health/covid-19-thanksgiving-bq/index.html?utm_medium=email&_hsmi=236390249&_hsenc=p2...
Submission: On December 12 via manual (December 12th 2022, 7:10:29 am UTC) from IN — Scanned from US

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NEW SUBVARIANTS, FAMILY GATHERINGS MAY BRING MORE COVID-19 AFTER HOLIDAY, BUT
EXPERTS DON’T EXPECT SEVERE SURGE

By Brenda Goodman, CNN
Published 7:17 AM EST, Thu November 24, 2022
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CNN  — 

As millions of Americans travel to gather with friends and family over the next
few days, there’s a good chance that Covid-19 will follow.

Experts expect that Thanksgiving gatherings will stir up social networks and
give new coronavirus subvariants fresh pockets of vulnerable people to infect.
As a result, cases and hospitalizations may tick up after the holiday, as they
have for the past two years.

There are steps we can all take to reduce risk and allow for happy, in-person
reunions over Thanksgiving and other upcoming holidays, says CNN Medical Analyst
Dr. Leana Wen.
FG Trade/E+/Getty Images

Reduce your risk of getting sick this Thanksgiving season

Covid-19 is not unique in this regard. Thanksgiving gatherings have the
potential to amp up the spread of other viruses too, notably respiratory
syncytial virus, or RSV, and influenza, which are both already at high levels
for this time of year.


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“We have seen, in some regions, RSV numbers starting to trend downward. Flu
numbers are still on the rise. And we are concerned that after holiday
gathering, lots of people coming together, that we may see increases in Covid-19
cases as well,” Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the US Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, said Tuesday on CNN.

But things have been relatively quiet on the Covid-19 front. Experts say it may
not stay that way for long.

“Covid positivity is going up,” said Shishi Luo, associate director of
bioinformatics and infectious disease at the genetic testing company Helix,
which has been monitoring coronavirus variants. “It’s increasing fastest among
18- to 24-year-olds” in the Helix sampling.

A Jackson-Hinds Comprehensive Health Center nurse loads a syringe with a Moderna
COVID-19 booster vaccine at an inoculation station next to Jackson State
University in Jackson, Miss., Friday, Nov. 18, 2022. Moderna recently announced
early evidence that its updated booster induced BQ.1.1-neutralizing antibodies.
(AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
Rogelio V. Solis/AP

New boosters add limited protection against Covid-19 illness, first real-world
study shows

It’s the first time test positivity in the Helix data has risen since July.

When test positivity increases, it means a greater proportion of Covid-19 tests
are returning positive results, and it can be an indication that transmission is
on the rise.

“We should expect more cases,” Luo said. “Whether they’re measured in how we
measure cases right now, I don’t know, but I think in general, you should see
more people who are sick. I definitely am.”

Increasing cases may not be picked up as quickly by official counts because
people are mostly testing for Covid-19 at home and not reporting their results –
if they test at all.


WILL NEW SUBVARIANTS DRIVE A WAVE OF CASES?

The BQ subvariants of Omicron have risen to dominate transmission in the US.
BQ.1 and its offshoot BQ.1.1 are descendants of BA.5; they have five and six key
mutations, respectively, in their spike proteins that help them evade immunity
created by vaccines and infections. Because of these changes, they’re growing
more quickly than BA.5 did.

For the week ending Nov. 19, the CDC estimates that BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 were causing
about half of all new Covid-19 cases in the US. But so far, they’ve risen to
predominance without much impact.

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Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths have remained flat for the past four
weeks. But it’s not gone: On average, more than 300 Americans die and 3,400
people are hospitalized each day with Covid-19, according to CDC data.

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci
speaks during the daily press briefing in the James S Brady Press Briefing Room
of the White House in Washington, DC, on November 22, 2022. (Photo by Jim WATSON
/ AFP) (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)
Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

In final White House briefing, Fauci says he hopes he is remembered for giving
it 'everything that I have'

Nobody knows exactly what will happen with the BQ variants. Many experts say
they feel hopeful that we won’t see the big waves of winters past – certainly
nothing like the original Omicron variant, with its jaw-dropping peak of nearly
a million new daily infections.

There’s reason for optimism on a number of fronts.

First, there’s the experience of other countries like the UK, where BQ.1 has
outcompeted its rivals to dominate transmission even as cases, hospitalizations
and deaths have fallen. Something similar happened in France and Germany, notes
Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert who directs the Center for
Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

“Cases went up in France and Germany just before the subvariants came in. Then
the subvariants came in, and cases actually dropped,” he said.

Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health,
thinks our behavior and our social contacts might be bigger determinants of
whether cases will rise this go-round than whatever variant is in the lead.

He thinks it’s likely that we’ll see a rise in cases that may peak around the
second week in January – as it has in years past – but that it won’t have a big
effect on hospitalizations and deaths.

Andrew Pekosz, a virologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public
Health, says that’s probably because BQ.1’s advantages are incremental, not
drastic.

“It’s probably got a bit more of a fitness advantage, so what we’re seeing is
gradual replacement without a massive change in the total number of Covid-19
cases,” he said.


AMERICA LAGS IN VACCINATION

All that’s not to say that BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 won’t have any impact. They’ve shown
marked resistance to the antibodies that are available to protect and treat
people who are vulnerable to severe Covid-19 infections. From that standpoint,
there’s good reason for people to be cautious if they have weakened immune
systems or will be around someone who does.

But these subvariants will land at a time when population immunity is higher
than ever, thanks to vaccines and infections. It’s a very different setting than
the virus encountered when Omicron emerged a year ago, and that should also help
dampen any coming wave, Pekosz says.

AstraZeneca

Many patients with weak immune systems don't realize their Covid-19 medicine
isn't as effective as it used to be

“With lots of people now being boosted and vaccinated and with people having
some immunity from an Omicron infection, it’s also a very, very different sort
of population landscape for a variant to emerge in,” he said. “All the signs
are, I think, the best part of the scenario in terms of not seeing these massive
increases in cases.”

If there’s reason to worry about BQ in the US, it could be this: Americans
aren’t as well-vaccinated or boosted as other countries. CDC data shows that
two-thirds of the population has completed the primary series of the Covid-19
vaccines, and only 11% of those who are eligible have gotten an updated bivalent
booster. In the UK, 89% of the population over age 12 has completed their
primary series, and 70% have been boosted.

New research indicates that a country’s vaccination rate matters more than any
other single factor when it comes to the effects of variants on a population.

Scientists at Los Alamos National Labs recently completed a study delving into
what drove the effects of 13 dominant variants of coronavirus as they
transitioned from one to another in 213 countries. The study includes data up to
the end of September and was published as a preprint ahead of peer review.

Among 14 variables that influenced the speed and height of new Covid-19 waves, a
population’s vaccination rate was by far the most important.

The number of previous cases in a country, the percentage of people who wore
masks, average income and the percentage of the population older than 65 ran a
distant second, third, fourth and fifth, respectively.

How many other variants are in the mix when a new one rises is also an important
factor, says senior study author Bette Korber, a laboratory fellow in the
Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group at Los Alamos.

OLDHAM, UNITED KINGDOM - NOVEMBER 24: A man wearing a protective face mask walks
past an illustration of a virus outside Oldham Regional Science Centre on
November 24, 2020 in Oldham, United Kingdom. England is continuing its second
national coronavirus lockdown. People are still permitted to exercise with one
other person, takeaway food is permitted but bars and restaurants are shut for
sit-in service. Schools will remain open but people are being advised to work
from home where possible and only undertake necessary travel. All non-essential
shops are closed with supermarkets and builders' merchants remaining open.
(Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
Christopher Furlong/Getty Images Europe/Getty Images

'Scrabble variants' now cause the majority of new Covid-19 infections in the US

She points to the Alpha variant, B.1.1.7, and how it behaved in the UK versus
the US.

“When it came through England, it was just extremely fast, but it was much
slower in the Americas,” Korber said.

By the time Alpha reached the United States, we were evolving our own variants
out of California and New York “that were very distinctive and had a competitive
edge compared to what it had to come up against in England,” Korber said, which
probably slowed its roll here.

The CDC is tracking a soup of more than a dozen Omicron subvariants that are
causing cases in the US, and that variety may end up helping dampen any wave
over the winter.

But Korber isn’t making any predictions. She says it’s just too difficult to
know what’s going to happen, pointing to Asia as the source of her uncertainty.

Asian countries have been contending with waves driven by the recombinant XBB, a
subvariant that really hasn’t had much of a presence in the US. The BQ variants
arrived later, but she says they look impressive against XBB, which is also
highly immune-evasive.


GET CNN HEALTH'S WEEKLY NEWSLETTER

Sign up here to get The Results Are In with Dr. Sanjay Gupta every Tuesday from
the CNN Health team.

“BQ is really making a stand there,” Korber said. “So I think it’s not really
possible to be certain yet” what could happen in the US.

“To me, it’s a good time, when it’s possible, to wear masks,” she said. Masks
protect the wearer as well as others around them. “And get the booster if you’re
eligible and it’s the right moment for you,” especially as we gather around the
table to feast with our friends and family.

“It’s a time to exercise a little additional caution to prevent that wave that
we don’t want to see happening, or at least make it a smaller bump,” Korber said


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