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 * ADB Trims Developing Asia Growth Outlook; Warns Of Risk From Rapid US Policy
   Shifts


ADB TRIMS DEVELOPING ASIA GROWTH OUTLOOK; WARNS OF RISK FROM RAPID US POLICY
SHIFTS




RTTNews
Dec. 11, 2024, 02:30 AM










(RTTNews) - The Asian Development Bank downgraded its growth outlook for
developing Asia and cautioned that rapid shifts in US policies could dent
economic growth and boost inflation.

In the latest report released Wednesday, the ADB trimmed the growth forecast for
developing Asia to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent this year. Similarly, the
projection for 2025 was lowered to 4.8 percent from 4.9 percent.

The lender said risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. Larger and
more rapid US policy shifts than assumed in the baseline could worsen the
outlook, as could greater geopolitical tensions or property market fragility in
China.

Growth forecasts for China were maintained at 4.8 percent for 2024 and 4.5
percent for 2025. The ADB observed that the short-term impact of the recent US
election on China was set to be muted and growth could benefit next year from
frontloading of US imports.

The bank noted that adverse impacts of the US tariffs on China are expected to
be felt only beyond the forecast horizon.






Among sub regions, East Asia's growth forecast in 2024 was revised downward
marginally to 4.5 percent from 4.6 percent and remained unchanged at 4.2 percent
for 2025.

Likewise, the growth forecasts for South Asia were downgraded to 5.9 percent for
2024 and 6.3 percent for 2025. The lower forecast for 2024 was mainly due to
India's lower-than-expected second quarter growth, the report showed.

India's growth forecast was reduced to 6.5 percent for the financial year ending
March 2025 and 7.0 percent for next financial year. The ADB said the lowering of
the forecast for FY2024 reflects a deceleration of GDP growth in the second
quarter of FY2024 to 5.4 percent on weaker-than-expected industrial output
growth.

On the other hand, Southeast Asia's growth outlook for 2024 was lifted to 4.7
percent from 4.5 percent, driven by stronger manufacturing exports and public
capital spending in larger economies, the bank said.

The growth projection for the Caucasus and Central Asia was also revised upward
to 4.9 percent from 4.7 percent for 2024 and to 5.3 percent from 5.2 percent for
2025.






At the same time, growth projections for the Pacific were maintained at 3.4
percent in 2024 and 4.1 percent next year.

Further, the ADB adjusted developing Asia's inflation forecasts down to 2.7
percent in 2024 and 2.6 percent in 2025, mainly due to softening global
commodity prices.




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