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REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REPORT


LIGHT ON THE HORIZON?

October 2023



 * Overview
 * Projections Table
 * Africa Special Issue
 * Videos

English
العربية français 中文 português
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REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA



Still emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic, countries in sub-Saharan Africa have
been hit by a sluggish global economy, worldwide inflation, high borrowing
costs, and a cost-of-living crisis. In many cases, inflation is still too high,
borrowing costs are still elevated, exchange-rate pressures persist, and
political instability is an ongoing concern. To ensure that the coming rebound
is more than just a transitory glimpse of sunshine, it is important for
authorities to guard against a premature relaxation of stabilization policies,
while also focusing on reforms to both claw back lost ground from the four-year
crisis and also to create new space to address the region’s pressing development
needs.

 * Full report
 * Africa: Special Issue
 * Press Conference



PROJECTIONS TABLE



ANALYTICAL NOTES

AT A CROSSROADS: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA’S ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH CHINA

Sub-Saharan Africa has forged broadly beneficial economic ties with China over
the last two decades. China has become the region’s largest trading partner, a
major credit provider, and a significant source of foreign direct investment.
However, China’s support to Africa has also faced some criticisms. Recently,
China has retrenched its financing activities in sub-Saharan Africa amid a
growth slowdown and reduced risk appetite. The projected future deceleration in
China’s growth is likely to affect African trading partners negatively over the
medium term, mainly through reduced trade. Therefore, it is crucial that
countries in the region strengthen their resilience and implement structural
reforms to foster economic diversification, deepen intraregional trade, enhance
competitiveness, and catalyze domestic growth.

 * Read the note

DEBT DILEMMAS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: SOME PRINCIPLES AND TRADE-OFFS IN DEBT
RESTRUCTURING

Public debt in sub-Saharan Africa increased significantly over the last decade.
Countries’ fiscal and public investment plans to meet development needs, fiscal
slippages, and a series of shocks including the COVID-19 pandemic,
climate-related events and natural disasters, and high international prices for
food, fuel, and fertilizers after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, all led to
rising debt. More recently, market financing for many sub-Saharan African
countries has dried up or become very expensive as advanced economies have
raised interest rates to fight inflation and international investors grew more
risk averse. Official financing flows are also trending downward relative to
country economic size and financing needs. Scope to roll over maturing debt has
reduced sharply, forcing countries to make difficult policy choices. In this
context possible debt restructuring has come into focus for some countries
managing debt vulnerabilities and risks to debt sustainability. This note
describes the rise in debt and its changing features and explains the challenges
and trade-offs in embarking on debt restructuring.

 * Read the note

THE LONG SQUEEZE: FUNDING DEVELOPMENT IN AN AGE OF AUSTERITY

Sub-Saharan Africa is only now emerging from a series of unprecedented global
shocks and is still in the grips of an acute funding squeeze. On the positive
side, global inflation is receding, and international financial conditions are
starting to ease. But the underlying funding challenge may still endure—the
crisis has demonstrated the risks of relying on volatile private capital markets
for development funding, while other traditional sources such as official
development assistance and bilateral lending are shrinking. Funding for
development seems likely to become increasingly scarce and ever more costly,
making it more difficult for countries to sustain even current levels of per
capita spending on priorities such as health, education, and infrastructure,
much less increasing the spending required to meet the Sustainable Development
Goals. But the region is far from powerless. More patient and less pro-cyclical
private investment inflows remain a critical and underused resource, and there
is significant scope for the region to accelerate investment-climate reforms
while carefully considering the role of added public incentives. Ultimately and
most important, domestic resource mobilization is the key to sustainable
development. Boosting public revenues is clearly vital. But expanding the pool
of private saving is also essential, and to this end, promoting financial market
development and financial inclusion should also be a priority.

 * Read the note

AFRICA: SPECIAL ISSUE

IN PURSUIT OF STRONGER GROWTH AND RESILIENCE

On the occasion of the World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings’ return to the African
continent after 50 years—specifically to Marrakech, Morocco—this Special Issue
on Africa discusses economic developments for the entire continent. After four
years of crises and at the close of another difficult year, recent events,
including the devastating earthquake in Morocco, severe floods in Libya, and the
impact of Cyclone Freddy in Malawi, have underscored the continent’s ongoing
vulnerability to natural disasters and the need to build resilience. In the near
term, there are tentative signs that the outlook in many countries in Africa is
improving. Inflation is generally easing, economic activity is starting to pick
up, and fiscal imbalances are gradually moderating. However, significant
challenges remain, and it is too early to celebrate. For too many countries,
inflation is still too high, debt vulnerabilities remain elevated, and
medium-term growth rates are too low. The international community should
maintain and enhance a cooperative approach to the provision of global public
goods. In the case of Africa, it is essential to support the region’s most
vulnerable climate- and conflict-affected states.

 * Read the Special Issue on Africa

VIDEOS

Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa
IMF African Department Director Abebe Aemro Selassie presents the latest
Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, and answers questions from the
press.


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REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

 * October 13, 2023

 * 00:50:41

Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, October 2023
Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director of the IMF's African Department, presents the
analysis in the latest Regional Economic Outlook.

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REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, OCTOBER 2023

 * October 10, 2023

 * 00:01:46

Africa: Special Issue—In Pursuit of Stronger Growth and Resilience


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AFRICA: SPECIAL ISSUE—IN PURSUIT OF STRONGER GROWTH AND RESILIENCE

 * October 10, 2023

 * 00:32:24



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