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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




ROUBINI WARNS "THE MOTHER OF ALL ECONOMIC CRISES LOOMS"

by Tyler Durden
Saturday, Dec 03, 2022 - 03:30 PM

Authored by Nouriel Roubini via Project Syndicate,

After years of ultra-loose fiscal, monetary, and credit policies and the onset
of major negative supply shocks, stagflationary pressures are now putting the
squeeze on a massive mountain of public- and private-sector debt. The mother of
all economic crises looms, and there will be little that policymakers can do
about it.






The world economy is lurching toward an unprecedented confluence of economic,
financial, and debt crises, following the explosion of deficits, borrowing, and
leverage in recent decades.

In the private sector, the mountain of debt includes that of households (such as
mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, personal loans), businesses
and corporations (bank loans, bond debt, and private debt), and the financial
sector (liabilities of bank and nonbank institutions). In the public sector, it
includes central, provincial, and local government bonds and other formal
liabilities, as well as implicit debts such as unfunded liabilities from
pay-as-you-go pension schemes and health-care systems – all of which will
continue to grow as societies age.

Just looking at explicit debts, the figures are staggering. Globally, total
private- and public-sector debt as a share of GDP rose from 200% in 1999 to 350%
in 2021. The ratio is now 420% across advanced economies, and 330% in China. In
the United States, it is 420%, which is higher than during the Great Depression
and after World War II.

Of course, debt can boost economic activity if borrowers invest in new capital
(machinery, homes, public infrastructure) that yields returns higher than the
cost of borrowing. But much borrowing goes simply to finance consumption
spending above one’s income on a persistent basis – and that is a recipe for
bankruptcy. Moreover, investments in “capital” can also be risky, whether the
borrower is a household buying a home at an artificially inflated price, a
corporation seeking to expand too quickly regardless of returns, or a government
that is spending the money on “white elephants” (extravagant but useless
infrastructure projects).

Such over-borrowing has been going on for decades, for various reasons. The
democratization of finance has allowed income-strapped households to finance
consumption with debt. Center-right governments have persistently cut taxes
without also cutting spending, while center-left governments have spent
generously on social programs that aren’t fully funded with sufficient higher
taxes. And tax policies that favor debt over equity, abetted by central banks’
ultra-loose monetary and credit policies, has fueled a spike in borrowing in
both the private and public sectors.

Years of quantitative easing (QE) and credit easing kept borrowing costs near
zero, and in some cases even negative (as in Europe and Japan until recently).
By 2020, negative-yielding dollar-equivalent public debt was $17 trillion, and
in some Nordic countries, even mortgages had negative nominal interest rates.

The explosion of unsustainable debt ratios implied that many borrowers –
households, corporations, banks, shadow banks, governments, and even entire
countries – were insolvent “zombies” that were being propped up by low interest
rates (which kept their debt-servicing costs manageable). During both the 2008
global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis, many insolvent agents that
would have gone bankrupt were rescued by zero- or negative-interest-rate
policies, QE, and outright fiscal bailouts.



But now, inflation – fed by the same ultra-loose fiscal, monetary, and credit
policies – has ended this financial Dawn of the Dead. With central banks forced
to increase interest rates in an effort to restore price stability, zombies are
experiencing sharp increases in their debt-servicing costs. For many, this
represents a triple whammy, because inflation is also eroding real household
income and reducing the value of household assets, such as homes and stocks. The
same goes for fragile and over-leveraged corporations, financial institutions,
and governments: they face sharply rising borrowing costs, falling incomes and
revenues, and declining asset values all at the same time.

Worse, these developments are coinciding with the return of stagflation (high
inflation alongside weak growth). The last time advanced economies experienced
such conditions was in the 1970s. But at least back then, debt ratios were very
low. Today, we are facing the worst aspects of the 1970s (stagflationary shocks)
alongside the worst aspects of the global financial crisis. And this time, we
cannot simply cut interest rates to stimulate demand.

After all, the global economy is being battered by persistent short- and
medium-term negative supply shocks that are reducing growth and increasing
prices and production costs. These include the pandemic’s disruptions to the
supply of labor and goods; the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on commodity
prices; China’s increasingly disastrous zero-COVID policy; and a dozen other
medium-term shocks – from climate change to geopolitical developments – that
will create additional stagflationary pressures.

Unlike in the 2008 financial crisis and the early months of COVID-19, simply
bailing out private and public agents with loose macro policies would pour more
gasoline on the inflationary fire. That means there will be a hard landing – a
deep, protracted recession – on top of a severe financial crisis. As asset
bubbles burst, debt-servicing ratios spike, and inflation-adjusted incomes fall
across households, corporations, and governments, the economic crisis and the
financial crash will feed on each other.

To be sure, advanced economies that borrow in their own currency can use a bout
of unexpected inflation to reduce the real value of some nominal long-term
fixed-rate debt. With governments unwilling to raise taxes or cut spending to
reduce their deficits, central-bank deficit monetization will once again be seen
as the path of least resistance. But you cannot fool all of the people all of
the time. Once the inflation genie gets out of the bottle – which is what will
happen when central banks abandon the fight in the face of the looming economic
and financial crash – nominal and real borrowing costs will surge. The mother of
all stagflationary debt crises can be postponed, not avoided.

138,492234


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HESITANT SANTA



Just a dollar thing?

Bullish or bearish, but the most recent squeeze has got a lot of support from
the falling dollar. The dollar is a huge part of the current macro narrative.



SOURCE: REFINITIV

XBD trying to tell us something?

Broker dealer index, XBD (highly-capitalized companies in the United States
(U.S.) securities broker/dealer industry) has printed new recent highs and is
not far from ATHs. Hartnett explains why to watch this: "...big "breakout"
signals new bull market, "double-top"…bear market has unfinished business."
Charts showing the XBD vs SPX gap...



SOURCE: REFINITIV

Equal-Weight S&P 500 vs SPX continues to make new YTD highs

1. 66% of SPX stocks have outperformed the index since mid-October. More than
90% of members are positive.

2. 6 weeks ago, just 20% of stocks were trading above their 200d Moving Average.
Now it is about 44%. (LT avg is 54%)

3. In November an average 54% of stocks in SPX outperformed the index on a daily
basis. That's slightly above October's 53% average and September's 51% average.



SOURCE: MORGAN STANLEY

Buy the laggards

This is the season for sell-side to come out with their "buy the laggards"
research. Yes - they tend to outperform in Q1 but the numbers are not massively
impressive...Here is Goldman's "Buy-rated Laggards with at least 10% upside
where less than 50% of the Street has a Buy rating" - list...



SOURCE: GOLDMAN

Unstoppable China bull

Chinese internet, KWEB, is beating pretty much everything out there. The KWEB is
up 74% from October lows, a little more than a month ago! Regular readers of TME
are familiar with our KWEB call spread logic outlined in early November. This
strategy has exploded to the upside. Chasing parabolic moves like this one is
hard, but as we wrote earlier this week, make sure to roll those call spreads
dynamically. You want to max out optionality in moves like these. Note KWEB is
breaking above the 200 day moving average for the first time in ages....



SOURCE: REFINITIV

Oil: the sector taking a breather

The sector has underperformed by 6% from its peak in early  November as crude
prices fell back from the mid-USD90’s/b to the mid-USD80’s/b on
economic worries, the prospect of a potential OPEC+ production hike and rising
COVID-19 cases in China. The sector is now back to its mid/late September
relative levels, but with oil and gas prices lower than they were two months
ago.



SOURCE: HSBC

Good luck bringing down inflation...

...with financial conditions this easy.



SOURCE: NORDEA/MACROBOND

Fed is far from done

TS Lombard's excellent Steve Blitz sums it up: "... 75 is on the table for the
Dec meeting, although given all the communication around slowing to 50 it will
be hard for them to back away at this point. Nevertheless, a long tack for
raising rates means a higher terminal rate...The doves still believe in 2%
without a recession. Their base presumption is that the 2012- 19 period remains
the norm that the economy returns to – meaning a funds rate nominally above
inflation slows growth. What if this period was the anomaly not the norm, as I
believe, and we return to 200BP real as neutral for short rates? I still believe
the hawks prevail and recession begins in May, but if not the doves will have
compounded the year ago policy error with another."

Maybe some year end VIX hedges just in case?



SOURCE: TS LOMBARD

Protection - reaching "buy when you can" levels

Santa rally or not, protection is reaching big levels. Leaning into hedges at
these levels has been a good trade in 2022.



SOURCE: REFINITIV

VVIX refuses buying the inverse panic

VVIX is up from recent lows, while VIX has continued printing new recent lows.
The gap between the two is becoming very wide.



SOURCE: REFINITIV

 

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