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22 May 2020




WHAT THE MODELS PREDICT ABOUT COVID-19

Marcus Low and Nathan Geffen
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A number of the models suggest that South Africa will not have enough ICU beds
for everyone who will need one. Picture: Kyodo/via REUTERS


A week ago, many were complaining about the lack of published models by
government to explain the decision-making process around the Covid-19
coronavirus pandemic.

On Thursday, the department of health hosted a Zoom call in which more models
were presented than could fit on a catwalk in Milan. Some models are useful.

If modellers carefully explain their assumptions and present multiple scenarios,
we can get a better understanding of the pandemic’s possible trajectories, or
the potential of different interventions to reduce the number of infections.



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