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 * alain kwenkeu nouho
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 * * Oct 20
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   * 3 min read




WEEKLY ANALYSIS OF THE OIL MARKET.WEEK OF OCTOBER 16, 2023.

In a particularly tense geopolitical context, crude oil prices remained broadly
stable last week before surging nearly $5/bbl last Friday when Iran’s foreign
minister warned that Tehran-backed Hezbollah could open a new front in Israel’s
war against Hamas if the blockade of Gaza continued. On average weekly, Brent
crude oil prices in futures markets gained $0.5/bbl to $87.7/bbl, while WTI lost
$0.2/bbl to $85.3/bbl.



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Weekly analysis of the oil market



Brent stable despite geopolitical tensions and market volatility.



On the spot market, Brent lost $1/bbl to $90.5/bbl. Despite the absence of a
significant influence on oil supply to date, the current geopolitical
instability prompts market players to take measures to protect themselves from
the risk of a possible price increase, that could result from a regional
escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. The oil volatility index
(OVX) has thus risen sharply to exceed 44, its highest level since last March, a
sign of the great uncertainty in the market.



However, the median crude oil price forecast for this quarter and the first
quarter of 2024 has been revised upwards to $87.2/bbl and $87.5/bbl
respectively. At the same time, the high forecasts were revalued by +$7.5/b to
$103.6/b for this quarter.





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IEA vs. OPEC: Two different visions of the global oil market in 2024.



In its latest monthly report, the IEA notes that, barring unforeseen
disruptions, global oil production is expected to average around 101.3 MMb/d in
the fourth quarter, thanks in particular to higher production from Nigeria and
Kazakhstan. Crude oil production is projected to increase by +1.5 MMb/d
year-on-year to an average of 101.6 MMb/d, thanks to the United States, which
will contribute 1.3 Mb/d to global supply growth in 2023, or 65% of total
non-OPEC growth+ (2 Mb/d this year). For next year, the IEA forecasts a
substantial increase in global supply, mainly driven by the US (but to a lesser
extent than this year) and other non-OPEC+ producers such as Brazil, Guyana and
Canada. These four countries will contribute 65% to growth of 1.7 MMb/d in 2024,
bringing global oil production to a new annual peak of 103.3 MMb/d.



In terms of oil demand, the IEA expects a strong growth trajectory to continue
in the fourth quarter. For 2023 as a whole, average growth of 2.3 MMb/d is
expected, bringing global demand to 101.9 Mb/d. According to the IEA, China
remains one of the main drivers of this growth, with a 77% contribution.
Globally, demand for oil is mainly driven by demand for kerosene and
petrochemicals. In 2024, oil demand growth is expected to slow to 0.9 MMb/d, due
to a more challenging economic climate and continued progress in energy
efficiency, bringing global demand to 102.7 MMb/d. In this context, the market
is expected to return to a surplus next year (+1.3 MMb/d in the first half of
the year and +0.6 MMb/d over the year), which could force OPEC+ to maintain or
even strengthen its policy of reducing production.



The IEA scenario differs from that of OPEC, which on the basis of the current
agreements of OPEC+ members leads instead to a supply deficit of 1 MMb/d on
average next year. OPEC estimates that oil demand in 2024 will increase by +2.2
MMb/d to 104.3 MMb/d, driven by solid global economic growth, with continued
improvements in China. Growth is expected mainly in non-OECD countries (+2
MMb/d), particularly in the Middle East and Asia (China, India mostly).





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USA: Crude stocks rise. Oil production at its highest.



Last week, US commercial crude stocks increased by +10.2 million barrels
(against a consensus of -1.4 million barrels/+4.3 million barrels on average
over 5 years. This increase was supported by exports of crude oil down -1.9
MMb/d and an increase in domestic crude production of +300 Mb/d to a record 13.2
MMb/d. On the product side, gasoline and distillate inventories are down,
confirming a slight recovery in demand and exports.





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Europe: relatively stable petroleum products market. Tensions on diesel.



In Europe, on the Rotterdam market, stocks of petroleum products fell slightly
last week, mainly due to lower diesel stocks. The price of petroleum products
increased by 0.2% for petrol and by 0.9% for diesel. The gas oil market in
Europe remains tight, due to the Russian embargo and a decrease in exports from
the United States and Saudi Arabia. In addition, the low water level on the
Rhine puts additional pressure on distribution costs in Europe, bringing them
closer to the peaks reached in July. The European refining margin remained
stable last week at $6.3/bbl.











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 * Brent
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 * OPEC
 * WTI
 * USA
 * Analysis
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