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 1. Home
 2. Markets
 3. Distributed Ledger


DISTRIBUTED LEDGER


WHY BITCOIN MAY FACE ANOTHER 20% PLUNGE IN COMING WEEKS, AS ‘RISK IS
HEIGHTENED,’ SAYS PROMINENT TECHNICAL ANALYST: ‘WE’RE WATCHING $37,000.’

Published: Dec. 9, 2021 at 3:22 p.m. ET
By

MARK DECAMBRE

  comments




TERRENCE HORAN, DOW JONES

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REFERENCED SYMBOLS


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BTCUSD
+0.85%
ETHUSD
-0.72%
COIN
-8.20%
MSTR
-7.02%
RIOT
-9.68%
MARA
-11.30%
EBON
-6.99%
OSTK
-4.48%
SQ
-4.12%
TSLA
-6.10%
PYPL
-2.84%
NVDA
-4.20%
AMD
-4.92%
BITO
-6.33%
BTF
-6.25%
XBTF
-6.41%
GBTC
-8.01%

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Hello, there! I’m stepping in this week for MarketWatch’s crypto reporter
Frances Yue.

I’ll walk you through the latest and greatest in digital assets this week so
far, as we enter the week before an important meeting of the Federal Reserve and
consider its possible impact on bitcoin and other crypto, if any. We’ll also
talk about the whipsawing weekend that was and what to expect from here.

Send tips, or feedback, and find us on Twitter at @mdecambre or @FrancesYue_.


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But most important, sign up here to get Distributed Ledger delivered fresh to
your inbox weekly!

CRYPTO MOVERS

Biggest Gainers Price % 7-day Return Near Protocol (NEAR) $9.24 12.42 Terra
(LUNA) $67.26 6.95 BitTorrent (BTT) $0.003313 5.57 UNUS SED LEO (LEO) $3.70 4.3
Huobi Token (HT) $9.86 2.54 Source: CoinMarketCap.com of the top 100 as of Dec.
9

Biggest Decliners Price % 7-day Return Kadena (KDA) $10.48 -36.83 Qtum (QTUM)
$10.01 -33.26 THORChain (RUNE) $7.13 -32.39 Fantom (FTM) $1.45 -30.50 THETA
(THETA) $4.44 -30.26 Source: CoinMarketCap.com of the top 100 as of Dec. 9

AFTER THE CRYPTO CRASH?

MarketWatch’s Distributed Ledger spoke to Katie Stockton, founder of technical
analysis firm Fairfield Strategies, about the crash in crypto over the past
weekend. The declines took bitcoin BTCUSD, +0.85% to around $42,000 and Ether
ETHUSD, -0.72% on the Ethereum blockchain to around $3,500 before those digital
assets bounced back.

Although Fairlead is fairly bullish long term, over the next six months or so,
on the crypto sector, including bitcoin and Ether, Stockton said that some
considerable damage had been done to the uptrend in the short to
intermediate-term, based on her analysis.



A short-term breakdown in trend was confirmed on Sunday, when bitcoin failed to
return to its recent support at $53,000 based on the September high and now that
it is hanging well below that level—it was trading at $47,702 on CoinDesk, down
5.6%—another support level of $44,000 needs to be the next point to monitor,
with the $37,000 serving as secondary technical support area.

“We feel that risk is heightened near term and even over the next two months or
so,” Stockton said.

The popular analyst who uses chart models and gauges of momentum to forecast
moves in assets from stocks to crypto said that she feels that the support level
for bitcoin at $44,000 will likely be breached and the secondary support level,
which defines the recent uptrend in bitcoin, will be a pivotal area for
investors to watch in recent trade.

So is there cause to worry about another flash crash? Stockton says that it’s
impossible to know for sure but believes that much of the tumble that took place
in the wee hours of last Saturday are likely flushed out of the system since it
was underpinned by unwinding in derivatives.

Certainly the bulls are hoping that is the case.

CRYPTO GOES TO WASHINGTON

MarketWatch’s Chris Matthews covered a highly anticipated testimony from some of
the biggest names in crypto in front of Washington lawmakers.


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Crypto execs, including those from popular digital-asset exchange Coinbase
Global Inc. COIN, -8.20%, made the case that their technologies hold promise for
the future, and that the growth of their more than $2 trillion industry
shouldn’t be impeded by wrongheaded legislation.

The nascent industry is hoping to push Congress to create a new regulatory
framework for digital assets that could help them avoid a costly showdown with
the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

“A successful policy framework would allow crypto platforms to offer both spot
and derivatives trading on crypto assets under one unified system, with one rule
book and one technology platform to manage risks related to all trading activity
in customer accounts,” said Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of FTX, told the House
Financial Services Hearing on crypto markets.

Officials from Circle Internet Financial Ltd., issuer of a stablecoin
crypto, bitcoin-mining firm Bitfury Group Ltd., cryptocurrency-payments system,
Stellar Development Foundation, and blockchain firm Paxos Trust Co. also
testified.

The Wall Street Journal reported that one of the main concerns among those
lawmakers wary of crypto is that its rapid growth poses a threat to financial
stability, is rife with fraud and manipulation, and isn’t environmentally
friendly since mining virtual coins uses lots of real energy.

CRYPTO SHARES

In crypto-related company trading, shares of Coinbase Global Inc. traded down 9%
to $287 Thursday afternoon. It was down 1.6% for the past five trading sessions.
Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy Inc. MSTR, -7.02%  traded 6.4% lower on Thursday
to $595.58, and was down 5.5% over the past five days.


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Mining company Riot Blockchain Inc. RIOT, -9.68% shares fell 9.1% to $26,
contributing to an 6.9% loss over the past five days. Shares of Marathon Digital
Holdings Inc. MARA, -11.30% were down nearly 11% to 41.72, but were up 0.3% over
the past five days. Another miner Ebang International Holdings Inc EBON, -6.99%.
fell 7% to $1.33, but was up 2.4% over the past five days.

Overstock.com Inc OSTK, -4.48%.  traded down 3.6% to $78.57. The shares went
down 2.6% over the five-session period.

Square Inc.’s shares SQ, -4.12% fell 4.1% to $186.85, paring its week-to-date
gain to 3.1%. Tesla Inc.’s shares TSLA, -6.10%  traded down 5% to $1,015,
trading flat for the week.

PayPal Holdings Inc. PYPL, -2.84%  fell 2.1% to $192.72, while it recorded a
4.8% gain over the five-session stretch. NVIDIA Corp. NVDA, -4.20% meanwhile,
slumped 3% to $308.72, but was looking at a 0.6% advance over the past five
days.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD, -4.92%  was off 4.3% to $139.04 and logged a
3.5% loss over the past five trading days, as of Thursday afternoon.

In the fund space, ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF BITO, -6.33% were 6.1% lower
to $30.29 Thursday, and was down nearly 11% for the week thus far, while
Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF BTF, -6.25% was down 5.9%, with a week-to-date
skid of nearly 11%. VanEck Bitcoin Strategy ETF XBTF, -6.41% fell 6.4% and was
showing a nearly 11% weekly drop, as of Thursday afternoon.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC, -8.01%  was trading to $37.44, off 7.1%
late-afternoon Thursday, heading for a weekly loss of 10.5%.

Read: Grayscale Investment wants its largest bitcoin trust to be an ETF. A
miscue briefly made its wish come true.

MUST READS

 * There Are Thousands of Different Altcoins. Here’s Why Crypto Investors Should
   Pass on Most of Them (NextAdvisor via Time.com)
 * AVAX’s Ava Labs Among Startups Chosen for Mastercard’s Crypto Accelerator
   (CoinDesk)
 * From bitcoin volatility to multimillion-dollar hacks: 7 crypto updates you
   should know (CNBC)
 * Crypto exchange Coinbase is planning to integrate Ledger hardware wallets,
   bringing users more options for self-custody of their crypto. (CoinDesk)


READ NEXT


READ NEXT


FORGET CRYPTO! SOME ETF PROVIDERS BET THAT THIS $800 BILLION INDUSTRY IN 2024 IS
FUND INVESTING’S NEW FRONTIER

Every week we talk to the most interesting managers and highlight the most
timely ETF news, from new launches to inflows and performance.


MORE ON MARKETWATCH

 * Barron's: Will Apple Stock’s Rally Fizzle Out? Don’t Bet on It.
 * If GameStop earnings looked weak to you, you’re not who GameStop really cares
   about
 * ‘Proceed with caution’: here’s what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S.
   stock market in 2022
 * Barron's: So What Did Happen on 12/9? Tesla Stock Dropped.


ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Mark DeCambre


Mark DeCambre is MarketWatch's markets editor. He is based in New York. Follow
him on Twitter @mdecambre.


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