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FRAMEWORKS, GUIDELINES & BOUNTIES ALONE WON'T DEFEAT RANSOMWARE

We need more than "do-it-yourself" approaches to threats that clearly rise to
the level of national security issues.

Jon Miller, CEO & Co-Founder, Halcyon

April 9, 2024

4 Min Read
Source: Christophe Coat via Alamy Stock Photo


COMMENTARY

The US government is ramping up efforts to stem the increasingly
disruptive scourge of ransomware attacks. For example, the State Department
recently offered up to $15 million for information on LockBit, and $10 million
for information on the BlackCat/ALPHV or Hive ransomware gangs. 

Where these bounties might be most effective is in enticing operators to "out"
rival threat actors, or disgruntled affiliates to exact some revenge if they are
cheated out of their cut of a ransom. However, the conditions that need to be
met in order to collect these bounties are rigorous, and the payouts represent a
tiny fraction of the revenue ransomware operators and their partners are
realizing, leaving little incentive to cooperate with authorities.



So, is the government doing enough? Is a criminal law enforcement approach to
this threat really going to make a dent in attacks? Are adversarial nations
taking advantage of this big gray area that is the nexus of cybercriminal and
nation-state operations? 




RANSOMWARE OPERATORS AS NATION-STATE PROXIES

We know rogue nations like Russia support ransomware operations, and they
provide a safe harbor for attackers. A recent report by Chainalysis assessed
that 74% of all the illicit revenue generated by ransomware attacks during 2021
went to Russia-linked attackers, the lion's share of ransomware proceeds. 

We cannot discount the potential dual nature of many of today's ransomware
attacks. There is plenty of overlap between cybercriminal activity and
nation-state operations, as evidenced by shared tooling and attack
infrastructure. Using ransomware gangs as proxies provides plausible deniability
for nations like Russia, while leveraging them in a larger geopolitical
strategy. 



Nations like Russia have zero interest in relinquishing such valuable assets to
Western authorities. Don't let the faux "takedowns" the Russian government has
touted fool you — they are purely a publicity stunt, and no more.


DESIGNATING SOME RANSOMWARE ATTACKS AS TERRORISM

Ransomware attacks targeting critical infrastructure providers like healthcare
organizations have crossed the line from cybercriminal activity to a serious
national security threat. It's no longer just speculation as to whether
ransomware attacks are threatening lives. 



When remote attackers disrupt systems critical to care and hold dozens of
healthcare providers and their patients to ransom, we simply call it an IT
security event and the government response is to offer more guidelines and
frameworks. But if hundreds of gunmen coordinating with an adversarial nation
entered dozens of hospitals and held the staff and patients hostage, preventing
the administration of care for days on end, would offering the hospital
guidelines on how to detect gunmen be an acceptable government response?

A recent report by Ponemon found a direct link between ransomware attacks and
negative patient outcomes: 68% of survey respondents said ransomware attacks
disrupted patient care; 46% noted increased mortality rates; 38% noted more
complications in medical procedures. Other research found that between 2016 and
2021, ransomware attacks contributed to between 42 and 67 patient deaths, as
well a staggering 33% increase in death rates per month for hospitalized
Medicare patients. There is definitely a case to be made to designate some of
these attacks as acts of state-supported terrorism. 

Some might argue that the lack of a clearly stated political motive behind
ransomware operations means that, while an attack on a hospital that disrupts
patient care and leads to negative outcomes could be described as inflicting
terror, it would not necessarily meet the definition of terrorism.



However, executive order 13224, issued by the George W. Bush administration in
September 2001, does not support that conclusion, and seems to be clearly
applicable to some ransomware attacks, such as those against healthcare
providers:

"For the purpose of the Order, 'terrorism' is defined to be an activity that (1)
involves a violent act or an act dangerous to human life, property, or
infrastructure; and (2) appears to be intended to intimidate or coerce a
civilian population; to influence the policy of a government by intimidation or
coercion."

Cybercriminal activity is the purview of law enforcement. They investigate,
collect evidence of a crime, indict, and prosecute when possible. So far this
has only resulted in a few arrests, mostly of low-priority suspects. But if we
designate these attacks as threats to national security, there are different
rules of engagement that would go far beyond mere indictments, and can include
offensive actions deemed appropriate and proportional, both cyber and kinetic. 


THE HARD TRUTH: GUIDELINES AND FRAMEWORKS ARE NOT ENOUGH

Organizations that are the victims and potential victims of these attacks have
largely been left to fight this battle on their own while getting little to no
protection from the government. Unless and until the US and allied governments
make this determination, there are few real consequences for these threat actors
while targeted organizations are still left to fend for themselves. While
guidelines and frameworks are useful, they are still "do-it-yourself" approaches
to a threat that clearly rises to the level of a national security issue. 

We need more than vanilla government public relations programs to combat
ransomware attacks. It is imperative that the US government and allied nations
that are the targets of these attacks differentiate at least a portion of them
by reclassifying them as terrorist acts so we can leverage some new tools in
this fight. Otherwise, it will be a long, hard, lonely road ahead for ransomware
victims.





ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)

Jon Miller

CEO & Co-Founder, Halcyon

Jon Miller is the CEO & Co-founder of Halcyon with 25+ years working in the
cybersecurity industry. Prior to Halcyon, Jon was the CEO & Co-founder of
Boldend, a next-generation defense contractor focused on building offensive
tools for the US Government. Previous to Boldend, Jon held the title of Chief
Research Officer of Cylance (now Blackberry) where he focused on malware and
product efficacy. Prior to Cylance, Jon was employee number 70 at Accuvant (now
Optiv) where with a group of others he helped build and lead the largest
technical consultancy at the time Accuvant LABS, working with over 95% of the
Fortune 500 as an offensive security expert. Before Accuvant, Jon was a ten year
veteran penetration tester, serving as one of the first in the industry working
for the Internet Security Systems (now IBM) X-Force.

See more from Jon Miller
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