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MARK ROBINSON MAY DELIVER NORTH CAROLINA FOR KAMALA HARRIS

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MARK ROBINSON MAY DELIVER NORTH CAROLINA FOR KAMALA HARRIS


HE MAKES JD VANCE SEEM NORMAL.

Noah Berlatsky
Sep 23, 2024
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MARK ROBINSON MAY DELIVER NORTH CAROLINA FOR KAMALA HARRIS

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Robinson speaks ahead of Trump at an event last month in Asheville. (Grant
Baldwin/Getty)

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Last week, CNN reported that more than a decade ago, North Carolina GOP
gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson referred to himself on a porn forum called
“Nude Africa” as a “Black NAZI.” He also wrote, “Slavery is not bad. Some people
need to be slaves. I wish they would bring it (slavery) back. I would certainly
buy a few.”

Robinson also attacked Martin Luther King Jr., used antisemitic and homophobic
slurs, and admitted he enjoyed pornography featuring trans people despite his
extensive and ugly history of anti-LGBT bigotry. And this is just what CNN was
willing to print! (Screencaps of even more disturbing posts have been
circulating on social media.)

These revelations have, as you’d expect, damaged Robinson’s chances of becoming
governor. Larry Sabato of the Crystal Ball changed the race from lean D to
likely D. Inside Elections moved the rating from “Tilt Democratic” to “Likely
Democratic.” Split Ticket changed from “Lean Democratic” to “Safe Democratic.”
Split Ticket analyst Lakshya Jain explained the decision by noting that, among
other things, Republicans are now unlikely to spend money on a race they have
every reason to believe is a lost cause.

REPUBLICANS AREN'T BEATING THE WEIRDNESS ALLEGATIONS

Stephen Robinson
·
6. Aug.
Read full story

So Robinson is cooked. But what about the presidential race? Could the
spectacular implosion of the GOP’s top candidate push North Carolina over the
line for Kamala Harris?

Figuring out cause and effect in elections isn’t easy. But the presidential race
in North Carolina is very close, Robinson is incredibly toxic, and early voting
in the state has begun — albeit haltingly thanks to confusing court decisions.
There are good reasons to believe Robinson’s scandal could help Harris win the
state.


ROBINSON WAS A NIGHTMARE CANDIDATE EVEN BEFORE THE NUDE AFRICA REVELATIONS


Nobody who has been following Mark Robinson is really surprised by his horrific
comments. His porn forum statements under an alias are very much in line with
his public statements.

In the past, Robinson — the current lieutenant governor of North Carolina — has
embraced numerous antisemitic conspiracy theories and used antisemitic slurs. In
a Facebook post, he once called Michelle Obama a man, echoing far right
transphobic, misogynist, and racist conspiracy theories. He mocked Nancy
Pelosi’s husband after he was brutally attacked by a MAGA supporter with a
hammer. In June, as part of his campaign for governor, Robinson delivered a rant
in which he declared, “Some folks need killing!” The “some folks” included
leftists, socialists, and communists — by which Robinson appears to mean anyone
who opposes the far right. (Watch the video below via New Republic.)



The constant stream of bile and hate dripping out of Robinson has not made him
popular. His polling in a state Trump won by 1.3 points in 2020 has been
abysmal. Even before the latest bombshell, most polls showed Democratic Attorney
General Josh Stein leading Robinson by a healthy margin: 47-42 in a Victory
Insights poll, 48-40 in Emerson, 50-37 in Morning Consult.

The porn forum Robinson comments are in many ways just the final nail in a
coffin already built and largely sealed by non-porn-forum Robinson.

That last nail, though, is a really pointy and loud one. Analyst Harry Enten
reported on CNN that google searches for Mark Robinson in the wake of the
scandal were up nationally by 8,540 percent. In North Carolina, where people
were already aware of and googling their gubernatorial candidate, searches were
still up 4,330 percent.

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REPUBLICANS WON’T DISTANCE THEMSELVES


In most instances, the presidential contest drives local race results rather
than the other way around. But this is a pretty unusual situation. Robinson’s
Nude Africa bigotry is sufficiently outrageous and salacious that it has become
a massive national story. And part of that story is that Republicans, including
Trump, are unwilling to disavow him.

Trump has repeatedly talked up and endorsed Robinson at rallies and campaign
events. He’s called him a “friend” and said he was “one of the hottest
politicians in the United States of America.” He’s also referred to Robinson as
“Martin Luther King on steroids” and said he was “better than Martin Luther
King. I think you are Martin Luther King times two” — comments that are
especially ugly given Robinson’s vicious denigration of King and his work.
(Watch Trump praising Robinson below.)



Robinson has vowed to stay in the race, insisting that Nude Africa account is
not his (even though the account used his full name and an email address known
to be his). This has left the GOP in a bind.

Robinson is no longer appearing at North Carolina Trump events and Trump didn’t
so much as mention him during his rally in the state on Saturday, so there’s
some effort at distancing. But Trump has not rescinded his endorsement, and the
North Carolina Republican Party has doubled down on its support. JD Vance has
hedged, saying of Robinson’s denials, “I don’t not believe him. I don’t believe
him.” (Watch below.)



North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis tweeted that “we must stay focused on the races
we can win” — but even he didn’t condemn anything that Robinson said or
acknowledge that he was unfit for office. Meanwhile, Robinson’s staffers are
voting with their feet, as all but a few of them resigned over the weekend.

The GOP has normalized conspiracies, bigotry, and hate. It is, therefore, very
difficult for them to distance themselves from a candidate, no matter how
bigoted and hateful their rhetoric. Robinson is toxic, but the GOP can’t and
won’t ditch him. He’s their candidate; this is their party.

That has given Democrats an opportunity and they are gleefully capitalizing on
it. This weekend the DNC saturated Raleigh, Charlotte, and Greensboro with ads
linking Robinson and Trump. The Harris campaign also quickly shared clips and
images online highlighting Trump’s endorsement (“We have to cherish Mark. He’s
like a fine wine”) and Robinson’s horrific statements (“I’d take Hitler over any
of the shit that’s in Washington right now!”).

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WILL IT WORK?


Again, most state and local races do not tend to move national numbers that
much. But there’s evidence that there can be an impact in some circumstances.
Run For Something conducted a study which suggested that Biden’s 2020 win in
Georgia may have been fueled by turnout for downballot elections, including two
major Senate races. The downballot Democrats, Run For Something believes, turned
out an additional 22,000 votes — twice Biden’s 11,000 vote margin of victory.

The race for North Carolina this year could easily be as close as the 2020
result in Georgia, which Biden won by .23 percent. Trump is currently up in
North Carolina by .2 percent in 538’s polling average. If Robinson’s scandal
depresses GOP turnout just slightly or flips a fraction of the vote from Trump
to Biden, that could mean a Harris win. And if Harris wins North Carolina, CNN
analysts believe she has a 95 percent chance of winning the entire election.

Of course, the scandal could fade from the media before election day. But
Robinson is still campaigning, and that means voters will continually be
reminded that he exists and has the endorsement of the GOP.

In addition, voters in North Carolina are already starting to vote. Independent
candidate, Trump ally, and anti-vax kook Robert F. Kennedy Jr. delayed early
voting in the state by trying to get his name off the ballot to help Trump. But
overseas ballots have now been sent. Other absentee ballots are set to be mailed
this Tuesday, September 24.

CHARLIE SYKES ON THE GOP'S TRUMP CULT

Aaron Rupar
·
5. Juli
Read full story

Harris isn’t guaranteed a win in North Carolina. Democrats haven’t flipped the
state since Barack Obama’s sweeping victory in 2008. But Robinson has done
everything he can to turn the state blue, and his efforts may well prove
successful.

Either way, one thing is certain: after his self-immolation, Mark Robinson is
not going to be governor of North Carolina. It turns out that screaming about
how you love Adolf Hitler can, in fact, still matter in a US election. That’s
good news for North Carolina and for the country as well.

Thanks for reading Public Notice! This post is public so feel free to share it.

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MARK ROBINSON MAY DELIVER NORTH CAROLINA FOR KAMALA HARRIS

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DISCUSSION ABOUT THIS POST

Comments
Restacks

Steward Beckham
Nothing New Under the Sun
1 hr ago

I keep thinking about the story not that long ago suggesting Republicans
silently want to lose in hopes of being able to usher in a party-wide reckoning.
The length and impact of that reckoning is unknown and hard to predict as noise
around the immediacy of the 2024 election clouds our political future.

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Susanna J. Sturgis
A Stillness in the Wind
1 hr ago

An angle worth exploring here is the role race plays in the overwhelmingly white
GOP. For understandable reasons African Americans have long gravitated to the
Democratic Party, even when the Democratic Party was mostly ignoring their
priorities. The GOP has to be at least a little bit nervous about this. (Compare
photos of the House Democratic caucus and the House Republican caucus standing
on the Capitol steps. The contrast is glaring.) One result is that Black
politicians can rise faster and farther in the GOP than they can in the
Democratic Party, which has a very, very deep bench. I have a very hard time
imagining a white Republican with Mark Robinson's views becoming the GOP
gubernatorial candidate in a swing state like NC. (I do not, however, have a
hard time imagining a white Republican with Mark Robinson's views, period.)

The Republicans aren't disavowing Robinson now, though they do seem to be
backing off somewhat. How will the situation develop in the longer term? It'll
be interesting to watch. I can imagine the GOP's harder-core white racists
saying, at least in private, "See? This is what happens when you promote Black
candidates." They've probably been thinking this all along.

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Yes, my Twitter account was permanently suspended
Here's what happened.
Dec 16, 2022 • 
Aaron Rupar
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Kamala Harris is cutting off Trump’s political oxygen
She's also not taking the bait from the press.
Sep 3 • 
davidrlurie
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Hunter Biden's revenge
Smear campaigns have consequences.

May 6 • 
Aaron Rupar
 and 
Liz Dye
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HUNTER BIDEN'S REVENGE

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