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MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Reports and forecasts from our economic research team
ECONOMIC REPORTS
Latest analysis on the main economic themes
* BRAZIL
BRAZIL
BRAZIL
Analysis on Brazilian economic themes published by the Central Bank, the
statistics institute IBGE, among others
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* LATAM
LATAM
LATAM
Analysis on economic indicators from other Latam countries covered by Itaú's
economic research team
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* GLOBAL
GLOBAL
GLOBAL
Current macroeconomic outlook for the global economy
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RESEARCH
Sector and publicly-traded company analysis prepared by our team of especialists
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SPECIFIC REPORTS
In-depth reports on macroeconomic issues
* RUSSIA/UKRAINE WAR: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE WAR: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE WAR: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
In this report, we present a preliminary analysis of the Russia/Ukraine war
on the Brazilian economy
Read more
* ANALYTICS, BIG DATA & REAL TIME ECONOMICS
ANALYTICS, BIG DATA & REAL TIME ECONOMICS
ANALYTICS, BIG DATA & REAL TIME ECONOMICS
February 21, 2022
Read more
* 2022 ELECTIONSGUIDE – BRAZIL
2022 ELECTIONSGUIDE – BRAZIL
2022 ELECTIONSGUIDE – BRAZIL
February, 17
Read more
* CHILE: AN ASSESSMENT OF FISCAL DYNAMICS
CHILE: AN ASSESSMENT OF FISCAL DYNAMICS
CHILE: AN ASSESSMENT OF FISCAL DYNAMICS
We expect the incoming administration to face pressure to loosen the fiscal
consolidation path set out in the 2022 budget
Read more
* CHILE: A DEEPER LOOK AT THE ECONOMIC PROGRAM
CHILE: A DEEPER LOOK AT THE ECONOMIC PROGRAM
CHILE: A DEEPER LOOK AT THE ECONOMIC PROGRAM
The president’s economic team will play a key role in negotiating the
breadth, depth and timing of the ambitious structural
Read more
* DISINFLATION IN 22 WITH THE SELIC CONTRACTIONARY
DISINFLATION IN 22 WITH THE SELIC CONTRACTIONARY
DISINFLATION IN 22 WITH THE SELIC CONTRACTIONARY
Disinflation will mainly come from regulated prices and tradables, but there
are risks
Read more
* FISCAL: WHY DID IT IMPROVE IN 2021
FISCAL: WHY DID IT IMPROVE IN 2021
FISCAL: WHY DID IT IMPROVE IN 2021
Reaching the fiscal equilibrium still a challenge
Read more
* WHAT’S NEXT IN CHILE’S CONSTITUTIONAL PROCESS?
WHAT’S NEXT IN CHILE’S CONSTITUTIONAL PROCESS?
WHAT’S NEXT IN CHILE’S CONSTITUTIONAL PROCESS?
Chile is in the process of drafting a new Constitutional text
Read more
* A LOOK AT CHILE’S UPCOMING ELECTIONS
A LOOK AT CHILE’S UPCOMING ELECTIONS
A LOOK AT CHILE’S UPCOMING ELECTIONS
Polarizing election to keep uncertainty elevated
Read more
* HOW WILL INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND REBALANCE?
HOW WILL INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND REBALANCE?
HOW WILL INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND REBALANCE?
Demand for industrial goods is set to decline
Read more
* CHALLENGING FISCAL CONSOLIDATION FOR CHILE IN 22
CHALLENGING FISCAL CONSOLIDATION FOR CHILE IN 22
CHALLENGING FISCAL CONSOLIDATION FOR CHILE IN 22
The fiscal consolidation strategy outlined in Chile’s budget bill for 2022 is
ambitious
Read more
* WATER CRISIS: WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2022
WATER CRISIS: WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2022
WATER CRISIS: WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2022
In case of rationing, we expect slower growth, accelerating inflation and an
increase in interest rates
Read more
* IPCA X TARGET DEVIATION AND MONETARY POLICY
IPCA X TARGET DEVIATION AND MONETARY POLICY
IPCA X TARGET DEVIATION AND MONETARY POLICY
A Selic rate approx. 100 bps above the neutral rate seems consistent with the
current deviation of IPCA
Read more
* WHAT ABOUT THE FISCAL SITUATION IN THE STATES?
WHAT ABOUT THE FISCAL SITUATION IN THE STATES?
WHAT ABOUT THE FISCAL SITUATION IN THE STATES?
States are seeing a temporary improvement, but still have a structural
challenge ahead
Read more
* WATER CRISIS AND IPCA FORECAST REVISION
WATER CRISIS AND IPCA FORECAST REVISION
WATER CRISIS AND IPCA FORECAST REVISION
We revised our 2021 inflation forecast to 7.7% from 6.9% previously
Read more
* "PRECATÓRIOS", SPENDING CAP & FISCAL DISCIPLINE
"PRECATÓRIOS", SPENDING CAP & FISCAL DISCIPLINE
"PRECATÓRIOS", SPENDING CAP & FISCAL DISCIPLINE
Fiscal improvements shouldn’t lead to a permanent deterioration in the fiscal
framework
Read more
* AN OVERVIEW OF CHILE’S GOVERNMENT DOLLAR SALES
AN OVERVIEW OF CHILE’S GOVERNMENT DOLLAR SALES
AN OVERVIEW OF CHILE’S GOVERNMENT DOLLAR SALES
The MoF is likely to auction roughly an additional USD 9 billion during
September-December 2021
Read more
* FORMAL LABOR MARKET VS. SERVICE INFLATION
FORMAL LABOR MARKET VS. SERVICE INFLATION
FORMAL LABOR MARKET VS. SERVICE INFLATION
The level of formal employment has fully recovered from the pandemics shock
Read more
* BREAKDOWN OF GLOBAL INFLATION AFTER PANDEMIC
BREAKDOWN OF GLOBAL INFLATION AFTER PANDEMIC
BREAKDOWN OF GLOBAL INFLATION AFTER PANDEMIC
Global inflation: commodities, bottlenecks and, recently, reopening. Core
accelerating in some countries, but still below
Read more
* CORPORATE INCOME TAX REFORM
CORPORATE INCOME TAX REFORM
CORPORATE INCOME TAX REFORM
The proposal brings Brazil closer to the international standard of corporate
taxation
Read more
* PERSONAL INCOME TAX REFORM
PERSONAL INCOME TAX REFORM
PERSONAL INCOME TAX REFORM
The proposal affects around 30 million people
Read more
* 10 FAQS - REFORM OF INCOME AND PROFIT TAXES
10 FAQS - REFORM OF INCOME AND PROFIT TAXES
10 FAQS - REFORM OF INCOME AND PROFIT TAXES
The proposal is being debated in Congress
Read more
* WHEN WILL ECONOMIES RETURN TO PRE-PANDEMIC GDP?
WHEN WILL ECONOMIES RETURN TO PRE-PANDEMIC GDP?
WHEN WILL ECONOMIES RETURN TO PRE-PANDEMIC GDP?
A full GDP recovery will likely be achieved in 2021 in most developed
countries, but not until 2022 or later in EMs (ex. Chi
Read more
* CHINA OUTLOOK
CHINA OUTLOOK
CHINA OUTLOOK
We forecast GDP at 8.5% in 2021 and at 5,8% in 2022
Read more
* ELECTRICITY: RAINFALL AND RATIONING RISKS
ELECTRICITY: RAINFALL AND RATIONING RISKS
ELECTRICITY: RAINFALL AND RATIONING RISKS
Rationing is still very unlikely (probability under 5%)
Read more
* WE FORECAST 5% GDP GROWTH IN 2021
WE FORECAST 5% GDP GROWTH IN 2021
WE FORECAST 5% GDP GROWTH IN 2021
GDP continues to expand in 2021H1
Read more
* 01
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* 05
* 06
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OTHER PRODUCTS
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* PRESENTATIONS
PRESENTATIONS
PRESENTATIONS
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ECONOMIC SERIES
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* FORECASTS
FORECASTS
FORECASTS
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OUR TEAM
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* MARIO MESQUITA
MARIO MESQUITA
MARIO MESQUITA
Chief Economist at Itaú Unibanco, holds a doctorate degree in Economics from
Oxford and was Deputy Governor for the BCB.
* FERNANDO GONÇALVES
FERNANDO GONÇALVES
FERNANDO GONÇALVES
Head of the sell-side area in the Macroeconomic research team, holds a Ph.D.
in Economics from the University of California
* GUILHERME MARTINS
GUILHERME MARTINS
GUILHERME MARTINS
Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University, partner, head of buyside and
economic analysis for Bz, global and analytics
* JOÃO PEDRO RESENDE
JOÃO PEDRO RESENDE
JOÃO PEDRO RESENDE
Is responsible for covering Latin American economies, ex-Brazil. Holds a
master`s degree in Economics from PUC-RJ.
* THIAGO MACRUZ
THIAGO MACRUZ
THIAGO MACRUZ
Responsible for research coverage of Brazilian companies, holds a bachelor in
economics by the University of São Paulo
* 01
* 02
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