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 * Family and household projections: 2018(base)–2043


FAMILY AND HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS: 2018(BASE)–2043

15 December 2021, 10:45am

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Family and household projections indicate the future trends in the size and
broad types of families and households usually living in New Zealand, including
16 regional council areas (regions), 67 territorial authority areas (TAs), and
21 Auckland local board areas (ALBs).

16 December 2022: Statistical area 2 (SA2) household projections are now
available on NZ.Stat:

 * Statistical area 2 household projections, 2018(base)–2043

These projections complement the national and subnational family and household
projections in this release.

SA2 household projections 2018-base – DataInfo+ provides detailed information on
how the SA2 household projections are derived.


DOWNLOAD DATA


 * FAMILY AND HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS: 2018(BASE)–2043
   
   Excel spreadsheet, 120 KB


KEY FACTS

The national projections (medium B) indicate that between 2018 and 2043:

 * the number of households is projected to increase by an average of 0.9
   percent a year, from an estimated 1.79 million households in 2018 to 2.27
   million by 2043 (an increase of 474,000)
 * households containing a family are projected to increase the fastest, at an
   average of 1.1 percent a year, and is the most common household type
 * the average size of households will gradually reduce from 2.7 to 2.6 people
   between 2018 and 2043
 * the number of families is projected to increase by an average of 1.1 percent
   a year, from an estimated 1.38 million families in 2018 to 1.79 million by
   2043 (an increase of 417,000)
 * the most common family type will be two-parent families, which will increase
   by an average of 1.3 percent a year.

The subnational projections (medium) indicate that between 2018 and 2043 there
will likely be:

 * more family and one-person households in most regions, TAs, and all ALBs
 * more one-parent and two-parent families in most regions, TAs, and ALBs
 * a decline in the average household size for all regions, and most TAs and
   ALBs.

These projections are not predictions. They should be used as an indication of
the overall trend, rather than as exact forecasts.

A new methodology was used to produce these 2018-base projections. This involved
a ‘sequential propensity’ method, and a modelled approach, to output future
estimates of living-arrangement type propensities based on 2001–2018 Census
data. See 2018-base family and household projections: Data and methods for more
information.



Text alternative for diagram Population, family, and household projections:
2018(base)–2043

The diagram shows how the population flows into households and families, with
estimates for 2018 and projections for 2043. In 2018, the population was 4.90
million people, with 4.82 million of those people living in 1.79 million
households, and 84,000 people in non-private dwellings. Of households, 1.31
million were family households, housing 1.38 million families. There were also
94,000 other multi-person households, and 393,000 one-person households. The
families included 549,000 couple-without-children families, 589,000 two-parent
families, and 239,000 one-parent families. In 2043 these numbers are all
projected to increase. The projected population is 6.06 million people in 2043,
of which 5.95 million are living in 2.27 million households, and another 106,000
people in non-private dwellings. Of households, 1.70 million will be family
households, housing 1.79 million families. There will also be 99,000 other
multi-person households, and 465,000 one-person households. The families will
include 676,000 couple-without-children families, 813,000 two-parent families,
and 304,000 one-parent families.

 * Important advice for using projections
 * Projection alternatives
 * Nearly half a million more households projected
 * Family households the most common household type
 * More families of all types
 * Smaller average household and family size
 * Breakdowns of family types


IMPORTANT ADVICE FOR USING PROJECTIONS

Family and household projections indicate the future trends in the size and
broad types of families and households usually living in New Zealand, including
16 regional council areas (regions), 67 territorial authority areas (TAs), and
21 Auckland local board areas (ALBs).

A family consists of a couple, with or without child(ren), or one parent with
child(ren), usually living together in a household. Couples include opposite-sex
and same-sex couples. A household is defined as one person usually living alone,
or two or more people usually living together and sharing facilities (for
example, eating facilities, cooking facilities, bathroom and toilet facilities,
a living area) in a private dwelling.

The projections do not give a complete picture of the complexity of family and
household structures. People are allocated to one usual family and household
role based on where they usually live, even though they may have several broad
roles within a given family or household.

Multi-generational families and households are not projected separately, but are
reflected in the number of people living in families or in multi-family
households. For example, parents with children in the same house would count as
one family, and grandparents, as a couple, would count as a second family within
the family household. If a single grandparent lives with a family, they are
counted as an additional person living with a family within a family household.


PROJECTION ALTERNATIVES

The national family and household projections indicate possible outcomes based
on three selected percentiles of the national population projections:

 * low, 5th percentile, which indicates an estimated 5 percent chance that the
   actual results will be lower, and a 95 percent chance that the actual results
   will be higher, than this percentile
 * medium, 50th percentile (median), which indicates an estimated 50 percent
   chance that the actual results will be lower, or higher than this percentile
 * high, 95th percentile, which indicates an estimated 95 percent chance that
   the actual results will be lower, and a 5 percent chance that the actual
   results will be higher, than this percentile.

They are then combined with two variants (A and B) of living-arrangement type
propensity assumptions. The variants are:

 * A, propensity will remain constant at 2018 levels (national projections only)
 * B, estimated living-arrangement type propensities based on 2001–2018 Census
   family coding data.

The subnational projections have three alternatives (low, medium, and high
growth) for each area, indicating possible outcomes based on different
combinations of fertility, mortality, migration, and living-arrangement type
assumptions. The low projection, for example, assumes low fertility, high
mortality, and low net migration. The medium projection is consistent with the
medium B national projection.

At the time of release, we consider the medium B national projection and medium
subnational projection suitable for assessing future family and household
changes, which are consistent with the median/medium projection (50th
percentile) of the National population projections: 2020(base)–2073 (released 8
December 2020) and the Subnational population projections: 2018(base)–2048
(released 31 March 2021).

The following results highlight the main trends from the projections, based on
the medium B national projection and medium subnational projection.


NEARLY HALF A MILLION MORE HOUSEHOLDS PROJECTED

The number of households is projected to increase by 474,000 (an average of 0.9
percent a year), from 1.79 million in 2018 to 2.27 million in 2043. This growth
is similar to the change in the population over the same time period (an average
of 0.9 percent a year), reflecting the trend towards smaller average household
size and the increasing number of non-family households, particularly one-person
households.

The number of households is projected to surpass 2 million under all projection
alternatives. The high B projection suggests that New Zealand would reach 2
million households between 2023 and 2028. In contrast, the low B projection
suggests that the number of households would take 10 more years to reach 2
million.

Subnationally, most regions are projected to have more households in 2043 than
in 2018. The largest increase is projected in the Auckland region, increasing
from 550,000 households in 2018 to 758,000 in 2043, up an average of 1.3 percent
a year. By 2043, 33 percent of all households in New Zealand will be in the
Auckland region, up from 31 percent in 2018. Within Auckland local boards, the
increase in households ranges between 0.5 percent (Kaipātiki) to 2.4 percent
(Rodney) a year.

Among the 67 TAs, almost all are projected to have more households in 2043 than
in 2018. The fastest growing areas between 2018 and 2043 are Selwyn (2.1 percent
a year), Queenstown-Lakes (1.9 percent), and Waikato district (1.6 percent).
This is driven largely by the higher levels of projected population growth in
these areas.

 * Graph
 * Table


Created with Highcharts 5.0.14Territorial authority areaPercentProjected
(medium) annual average household change, top 15 territorial authority areas,
2018(base)–2043Selwyn districtQueenstown-Lakes districtWaikato districtCentral
Otago districtAucklandTauranga cityWaimakariri districtHamilton cityMackenzie
districtWestern Bay of Plenty districtKaipara districtWaipa districtTasman
districtWhangārei districtHastings district00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.822.2Stats
NZ

Projected (medium) annual average household change, top 15 territorial authority
areas, 2018(base)–2043

Created with Highcharts 5.0.14PercentProjected (medium) annual average household
change, top 15 territorial authority areas, 2018(base)–2043Average annual
changeSelwyn districtQueenstown-Lakes districtWaikato districtCentral Otago
districtAucklandTauranga cityWaimakariri districtHamilton cityMackenzie
districtWestern Bay of Plenty districtKaipara districtWaipa districtTasman
districtWhangārei districtHastings district00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.822.2Stats
NZ

Territorial authority areaAverage annual changeSelwyn
district2.13Queenstown-Lakes district1.9Waikato district1.56Central Otago
district1.32Auckland1.29Tauranga city1.28Waimakariri district1.27Hamilton
city1.26Mackenzie district1.15Western Bay of Plenty district1.03Kaipara
district1Waipa district1Tasman district0.95Whangārei district0.93Hastings
district0.91




FAMILY HOUSEHOLDS THE MOST COMMON HOUSEHOLD TYPE

Households consist of the following three broad household types:

 * family household
 * other multi-person household
 * one-person household.

Family households are projected to be the fastest growing household type,
increasing by 396,000 (an average of 1.1 percent a year) from 1.3 million in
2018 to 1.7 million in 2043. They will account for 75 percent of all households
in 2043, up from 73 percent in 2018.

The growth in family households reflects the increase in the size of the adult
population, that is, the growing number of people reaching ages where they form
households. However, it is also impacted by people living with family for longer
in their lives. In 2018, 14 percent of people living with their parents were
aged between 20 and 34 years. This is projected to increase to 18 percent in
2043.

One-person households are projected to increase at 0.7 percent a year, from
393,000 in 2018 to 465,000 in 2043. The growth in one-person households is
mainly due to the increasing number of people at older ages. In 2018 the
population aged 65 plus was 0.7 million and is projected to increase to 1.4
million by 2043. In 2018, just under half of people who lived in one-person
households were aged 65 and over, but this is projected to increase to nearly
two-thirds by 2043.

Other multi-person households, which generally include unrelated people living
together in a household, is increasing slower than other household types (0.2
percent a year). This reflects people potentially not moving into a flatting
type situation, combined with higher population growth in the ages where other
multi-person households are less common.

 * Graph
 * Table


Created with Highcharts 5.0.14NumberFive-year interval gaps apart from seven
years between 2006 and 2013.Number of estimated (1996–2018) and projected
(2023–2043) households by household type, medium Bprojections, at 30 June
1996–2043Number of estimated (1996–2018) and projected (2023–2043) households by
household type, medium B projections, at 30 June 1996–2043Other
multi-personOne-personFamily19962001200620132018(base)2023202820332038204301M2M3MStats
NZ

Number of estimated (1996–2018) and projected (2023–2043) households by
household type, medium B projections, at 30 June 1996–2043

Created with Highcharts 5.0.14NumberNumber of estimated (1996–2018) and
projected (2023–2043) households by household type, medium Bprojections, at 30
June 1996–2043Number of estimated (1996–2018) and projected (2023–2043)
households by household type, medium B projections, at 30 June 1996–2043Other
multi-personOne-personFamily19962001200620132018(base)2023202820332038204301M2M3MStats
NZ

At 30 JuneOther
multi-personOne-personFamily199664,100297,000974,400200161,800328,0001,035,400200668,300362,8001,121,400201368,600392,7001,187,2002018(base)93,700392,8001,308,300202393,600422,1001,415,200202895,900439,6001,493,300203397,500451,9001,574,300203898,900461,6001,643,500204399,000464,6001,704,700




MOST HOUSEHOLDS CONTAIN A FAMILY IN ALL REGIONS

Subnationally, the number of households containing a family (or families) is
projected to increase in almost all regions, TAs, and ALBs. However, the share
of the family households is projected to decrease in some areas. They are
usually areas with an older population, having a higher proportion of one-person
households.

Almost all TAs and ALBs are projected to have more one-person households in 2043
than in 2018. The number in Selwyn district will nearly double (up 90 percent)
over the 25-year period. Other large increases are projected for
Queenstown-Lakes (up 69 percent), and Rodney local board area (up 66 percent).

Other multi-person households only accounted for a small share of the households
in most areas (usually less than 5 percent). They are mostly concentrated in
cities where flatting is more common. Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch
accounted for more than half of other multi-person households in 2018. This is
projected to decrease gradually to just under half by 2043.

The age profile of people living in other multi-person households is also
projected to change, likely a result of population ageing and housing
affordability. In 2018, two-thirds of people in this household type were aged
between 15 and 39. This is projected to decrease to just under half in 2043. In
contrast, in 2018, 1 in 10 people aged 65 years and older lived in an other
multi-person household, which is to projected to increase to 1 in 5 in 2043.


MORE FAMILIES OF ALL TYPES

At a national level, the number of families is projected to increase by 417,000
(an average of 1.1 percent a year) between 2018 and 2043, from 1.38 million to
1.79 million. This exceeds the population growth rate, which will average 0.9
percent a year over the same period.

Like population growth, growth in the number of families is expected to slow
over the projection period – from an average of 22,000 a year between 2018–2023
to 13,000 a year between 2038–2043.

Families consist of the following three broad family types:

 * couple-without-children family
 * two-parent family
 * one-parent family.

All three family types are projected to increase in number over the period to
2043.

The number of two-parent families (589,000 in 2018) is projected to grow by an
average of 1.3 percent a year to 813,000 by 2043, and account for just over half
of the growth in the number of families.

Couple-without-children families will account for just under one-third of the
growth in the number of families, rising 128,000 from 549,000 in 2018 to 676,000
in 2043 (an average growth of 0.8 percent a year). Couple-without-children
families include couples who will never have children, couples who will have
children in the future, and couples whose children have left the parental home.

Growth in the number of couples whose children have left the parental home is
expected to be the most significant, as the children of the large number of
people born during the 1950s to early 1970s reach adulthood and start to leave
home. An increasing proportion of couples who will never have children is also
likely to contribute to the growing number of couple-without-children families,
but to a much lesser extent. In 2018, 16 percent of women aged 45–49 years had
never had children, up from 13 percent in 2006, and 9 percent in 1981.

One-parent families contribute the remaining 16 percent of growth, from 239,000
in 2018 to 304,000 in 2043 (an average growth of 1.0 percent a year). Within the
one-parent families, the number of single male and single female parents will
increase at similar rates. While the rate of increase is similar, the number of
female single parents is much higher (193,000 female single parents in 2018,
compared with 46,000 male single parents).

 * Graph
 * Table


Created with Highcharts 5.0.14NumberFive-year interval gaps apart from seven
years between 2006 and 2013.Number of estimated (1996–2018) and projected
(2023–2043) families by family type, medium B projections, at 30June
1996–2043Number of estimated (1996–2018) and projected (2023–2043) families by
family type, medium B projections, at 30 June
1996–2043One-parentCouple-without-childrenTwo-parent19962001200620132018(base)202320282033203820430500k1
000k1 500k2 000kStats NZ

Number of estimated (1996–2018) and projected (2023–2043) families by family
type, medium B projections, at 30 June 1996–2043

Created with Highcharts 5.0.14NumberNumber of estimated (1996–2018) and
projected (2023–2043) families by family type, medium B projections, at 30June
1996–2043Number of estimated (1996–2018) and projected (2023–2043) families by
family type, medium B projections, at 30 June
1996–2043One-parentCouple-without-childrenTwo-parent19962001200620132018(base)202320282033203820430500k1
000k1 500k2 000kStats NZ

At 30
JuneOne-parentCouple-without-childrenTwo-parent1996178,300383,900448,8002001202,200419,800446,6002006219,300467,700480,7002013230,300513,500503,6002018(base)238,600548,700588,7002023248,800598,600641,0002028260,700625,900683,9002033275,600651,600728,6002038290,300667,200771,0002043304,000676,300812,600



 All regions but the West Coast are projected to have more families in 2043 than
in 2018. The largest increase in the number of families is projected in the
Auckland region, at an annual average increase of 1.4 percent, from 460,000 to
655,000. This accounts for 47 percent of the projected increase at the national
level. By 2043, 37 percent of all families in New Zealand are projected to live
in the Auckland region, compared with 33 percent in 2018. Within Auckland local
boards, the change in the number of families ranges between 0.6 percent
(Waitākere Ranges) to 2.5 percent (Rodney) a year.

Among TAs, all but Buller are projected to have more families in 2043 than in
2018. The three areas projected to experience the highest annual average
percentage growth in the number of families between 2018 and 2043 are Selwyn
(2.1 percent), Queenstown-Lakes (2.0 percent), and Waikato (1.6 percent)
districts. These are also the areas projected to have high percentage growth in
population and households.


SMALLER AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD AND FAMILY SIZE

Average household size is projected to slowly decrease between 2018 and 2043,
from 2.7 to 2.6 people per household. Declining average household size is
projected for all regions, and most TAs and ALBs. This reflects either an
increasing proportion of one-person households or a decrease in the average size
of family households for each area, or both.

Despite two-parent families projected to be the fastest increasing family type
both numerically and share, the average family size, which contains 2.9 people
on average in 2018, is projected to slowly decline to 2.8 people in 2043. This
is mainly due to the reducing fertility rates. The cohort total fertility rate
indicates a progressive decline in completed family size. Women born in the
early 1950s averaged 2.5 births each, compared with 2.2 for those born in the
early 1970s.

Differences in average household size between TAs reflect differences in family
and household types for each area. In 2043, average household size is projected
to be highest in Auckland (2.9 people – but varying between 2.0 and 3.6 within
the local boards), Waikato district and Porirua city (2.8 people each). These
TAs also had the highest average household sizes in 2018, of 3.0, 2.9, and 3.0
people, respectively. These areas have relatively low proportions of one-person
households and relatively high proportions of family households with children.

In contrast, average household size were the smallest in 2018 for Buller (2.1
people), Thames-Coromandel (2.2), and Westland (2.3) districts, and are all
projected to decrease to 2.1 people in 2043. These areas have relatively high
proportions of one-person households and relatively low proportions of family
households with children.



Text alternative for map Projected average household size by territorial
authority and Auckland local board areas, at 30 June 2043 (medium projection)
The map shows the projected average household size for 66 territorial
authorities and 21 Auckland local board areas, at 30 June 2043. These results
are based on the medium subnational family and household projections. Based on
the average household size the lighter colours indicates a smaller average
household size for an area and the darker colours indicates a larger average
household size for an area. See Subnational household projections, by household
type, 2018(base)-2043 in NZ.Stat for the data in this map.


BREAKDOWNS OF FAMILY TYPES

The number of two-parent families in New Zealand is projected to increase from
589,000 in 2018 to 813,000 by 2043. All TAs except for Buller district are
projected to have more two-parent families in 2043 than in 2018. The TA with the
highest increase in two-parent families is Queenstown-Lakes, with an average
increase of 2.1 percent a year. The proportion of two-parent families out of all
family types is projected to increase for most TAs.

Nationally, the number of one-parent families is projected to increase by 65,000
(an average of 1.0 percent a year), from 239,000 in 2018 to 304,000 in 2043.
Increases are projected for 62 TAs, the highest in Queenstown-Lakes, and Selwyn
districts (both an average of 2.2 percent a year), Waikato district (1.6
percent) and Mackenzie district (1.5 percent). As children in families can be of
any age, one-parent families include mature children living with an older
parent.

The number of couple-without-children families is projected to increase by
128,000 (an average of 0.8 percent a year), from 549,000 in 2018 to 676,000 in
2043. Increases are projected for 59 TAs, the highest in the Selwyn district (an
average of 2.3 percent a year) and Queenstown-Lakes (1.9 percent) and Tauranga
city (1.5 percent). An increase in couple-without-children families reflects the
increase in couples not having children at all during their life, combined with
adult children leaving the family home as these couples move into older ages.


MORE DATA

Use NZ.Stat for further family and household projections by selecting
‘Population projections; and then ‘Family and household projections’. The
following links will take you to the latest projections by specific variables.

 * National family and household projections, population by living arrangement
   type, age, and sex, 2018(base)–2043
 * National family projections, by family type, 2018(base)–2043
 * National household projections, by household type, 2018(base)–2043
 * Subnational family and household projections, population by living
   arrangement type, and age, 2018(base)–2043
 * Subnational family projections, by family type, 2018(base)–2043
 * Subnational household projections, by household type, 2018(base)–2043


DEFINITIONS AND METADATA

2018-base family and household projections: Data and methods provide the general
methodology used in this release.

National family and household projection – DataInfo+ provide general information
about national family and household projections.

Subnational family and household projections – DataInfo+ provide general
information about subnational family and household projections.

Family concepts – DataInfo+ provides definitions of terms relating to family
used in this release.

Fertility concepts – DataInfo+ provides definitions of terms relating to
fertility used in this release.

Household concepts – DataInfo+ provides definitions of terms relating to
household used in this release.

Mortality concepts – DataInfo+ provides definitions of terms relating to
mortality used in this release.

Population concepts – DataInfo+ provides definitions of terms relating to
population used in this release.


MEDIA ENQUIRIES

Ann Kennedy-Perkins
021 285 9191
communications@stats.govt.nz


TECHNICAL ENQUIRIES

Helen He
03 964 8353
info@stats.govt.nz

ISSN 2815-7141


NEXT RELEASE

Subnational ethnic population projections: 2018(base)–2043 will be released on
29 March 2022.

RELATED TOPICS

 * Children
 * Family
 * Gender sex and intersex
 * Households
 * Older people
 * Population
 * Population estimates and projections

RELATED RELEASES

 * Family and household projections: 2018(base)–2043

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 1. New Zealand households projected to climb half a million
    
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 2. 2018-base family and household projections: Data and methods
    
    15 December 2021

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