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IN THIS LIST
U.S. Equities Market Attributes February 2024
Indexing Dividends: Transparent Tools for Understanding Income Strategies
iBoxx USD Asia Ex-Japan Monthly Commentary: January 2024
U.S. Equities Market Attributes January 2024
Municipal Bonds: Navigating the Curve in 2024
* Commentary - Mar 04, 2024
U.S. EQUITIES MARKET ATTRIBUTES FEBRUARY 2024
Howard Silverblatt
Senior Index Analyst, Product Management
S&P Dow Jones Indices
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* Indices in This Article S&P 500®Dow Jones Industrial Average®S&P MidCap
400®S&P SmallCap 600®
Key Highlights
* The S&P 500® was up 5.17% in February, bringing its YTD return to 6.84%.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average® rose 2.22% for the month and was up 3.47%
YTD.
* The S&P MidCap 400® gained 5.80% for the month, bringing its YTD return to
3.92%.
* The S&P SmallCap 600® was up 3.15% in February and was down 1.00% YTD.
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
Neither inflation nor Fed rates nor interest costs nor gloom of consumer and
government debt (nor government shutdowns—seems we have more concerns than the
saying has room for) stays these markets from the swift completion of their
appointed new closing highs, as delivered by the S&P 500’s eight new closing
highs in February (closing the month on one of them, at 5,096.27, though the
intraday high was 5,111.06), after six in January. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average has also posted closing highs—seven each in the month of February,
January and December). For February, the S&P 500 broke through and traded above
5,000 for the first time, reaching above 5,100 as well, but leaving that close
to another day. It posted its fourth month of broad gains, up 5.17% (5.34% with
dividends), after January’s 1.59%, December’s 4.54% and November’s 8.92%
(cumulatively 21.52%), which followed three months of losses (-8.61%).
Year-to-date, the index was up 6.84% (7.11%), as the 2023 return was up 24.23%
(26.29%), making up for 2022’s 19.44% decline; the one-year return was 28.36%
(30.45%). The index was up 50.50% (60.64%) from its pre-COVID-19 Feb. 19, 2020,
closing high.
All 11 S&P 500 sectors gained for February, compared with 5 for January and 10
in December (8 of 11 for 2023). Consumer Discretionary did the best, up 8.60%
for the month (up 4.74% YTD and down 7.79% from the 2021 close), and Utilities
did the worst, up 0.53% (down 2.55% YTD and down 13.75% from the close of
2021). Breadth improved (351 up and 151 down, compared with last month’s 224 up
and 279 down), with YTD breadth turning positive (302 up and 201 down; for 2023,
322 issues were up and 179 down, a reversal of 2022’s 139 gainers and 363
decliners). February posted gains for 13 of its 20 trading days (11 of 21 last
month), while trading increased 4% over January and was down 3% over February
2023.
The Magnificent 7 continued, although it appears to have become more of a
one-company show, with Nvidia (NVDA) gaining 28.6% for the month (up 59.8% YTD
and up 441% from the close of 2022) and representing 20% of the February total
return for the S&P 500 and 26% YTD. Nvidia briefly traded above the USD 2
trillion mark, joining Microsoft (MSFT; USD 3.07 trillion) and Apple (AAPL; USD
2.64 trillion, with Nvidia at USD 1.95 trillion) as the dominating gang of three
(making up 17.9% of the S&P 500; Alphabet’s two issues add up to USD 1.52
trillion and account for 3.5% of the index). So the trillion dollar question
is—how long can it go on for? The answer may be found in the two days prior to
its earnings and sales blowout release (which ended with the company posting a
record USD 273 billion market gain that next day), when some took profits (-7%
for two days) but got back in—because you have to be in it to win it. The run
will continue as long as the market believes superior growth will continue.
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* Commentary - Feb 28, 2024
INDEXING DIVIDENDS: TRANSPARENT TOOLS FOR UNDERSTANDING INCOME STRATEGIES
Jason Ye
Director, Factors and Thematics Indices
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Dividend Monarchs IndexS&P/ASX 200 High Dividend IndexS&P/KRX ESG Dividend
Opportunities Index
Investors in search of diversified performance and income amid today’s volatile
market are seeing the potential benefits of dividend index strategies of
different types, says Jason Ye, director of factors and thematics indices in
APAC at S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI).
Given so much market uncertainty over the past few years, investor appetite for
dividend-paying stocks has been a constant in this time.
This is evident by looking at the global dividends ETF market. The assets under
management of dividend-related ETFs grew from around USD 100 billion to around
USD 500 billion over the past decade. Within the dividend ETF market, USD 223
billion of assets were tracking the dividend indices offered by S&P DJI as of
Dec. 31, 2023.
Perhaps most notable is the fact that these flows have remained despite a dip in
the performance of dividend index strategies in 2023 – which has followed a
bounce back in technology stocks. Regardless, high levels of investor demand are
reflected in 2023 inflows to some dividends ETFs that track S&P DJI indices in
the multiple billions of US dollars.
“Despite performance, we still see very strong inflows to dividend index
strategies,” said Jason Ye at S&P DJI. “Investors in the US have also been
buying international dividends ETFs.”
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Capitalising on the US equities story
A foundation of global investor interest in US dividends is interest in US
equities.
In Asia, for example, demand has come from markets like Korea and Japan, which
are interested in US equities and see dividend indices as a natural choice in
addition to the S&P 500®.
Asia is also driving innovation within dividend index strategies. “This has led
to us adding a covered call overlay, which we created to offer extra income from
selling options,” explained Ye.
In line with investor interest, investment product issuers in the region have
launched several products tracking the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats®.
This flagship index is designed to measure the performance of S&P 500
constituents that have followed a policy of increasing dividends every year for
at least 25 consecutive years. It aims to reflect both capital growth and
dividend income characteristics, as opposed to alternative index income
strategies that may be pure yield or pure capital-appreciation oriented.
In 2023, new products were launched in both the US and Korea tracking the S&P
Dividend MonarchsTM Index which measures companies within the S&P Composite
1500®4 constituents that have followed a policy of increasing dividends every
year for at least 50 consecutive years.
Compared to the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats, the S&P Dividend Monarchs Index
further elevates the dividend growth criteria to half a century. These types of
companies have been commonly referred to as the “Dividend Kings” in the
investment community.
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Dividend Monarchs IndexS&P/ASX 200 High Dividend IndexS&P/KRX ESG Dividend
Opportunities Index
* Commentary - Feb 08, 2024
IBOXX USD ASIA EX-JAPAN MONTHLY COMMENTARY: JANUARY 2024
Jessica Tan
Principal, Fixed Income Indices
S&P Dow Jones Indices
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January 2024 Commentary
2024 began with no change in interest rates for most of the global and Asian
central banks, with the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank
expressing that they would like to see more signs of inflation dampening,
quashing market expectations of rate cuts in the short term. On the fiscal
side, the U.S. Treasury department announced a further increase in debt
issuances in the next three months, as the federal budget deficit continues to
grow. U.S. 10-year Treasuries, which are regarded as the benchmark for global
borrowing costs, retreated by 1.79%, as represented by iBoxx $ Treasuries 10Y+,
after rallying for two consecutive months.
On the equities front, following a 24.24% gain in 2023, the S&P 500® experienced
a modest gain of 1.59% in January, unfazed by the higher yields of the 10+ year
U.S. Treasuries.
In China, the Real Estate sector continues to be a drag on the economy, as the
government expands fiscal injections and targeted policy measures to give
support to the weak housing demand and property developers’ liquidity issues.
One measure introduced in January was to whitelist development projects
eligible for loans and coordinate with financial institutions to issue loans on
development projects rather than on the basis of developers. For the month of
January, Chinese-issued U.S. dollar bonds—as represented by the iBoxx USD Asia
ex-Japan China—gained 0.86%, while Chinese stocks—as represented by the S&P
China 500 (USD)—lost 11.03%.
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The Asian U.S. dollar bond market started the year with a 0.41% gain, supported
by a 2.70% rise in the high yield index and a 0.09% rise in the investment grade
index. In terms of the rolling one-year returns, China Real Estate remained the
worst-performing segment, losing 31.65%, while China LGFVs were one of the
best-performing segments, with a positive return of 7.10%.
Similar to the U.S. Treasuries 10+ segment, the investment grade long-end
maturity buckets broke their two-month uptrend, while short- to medium-end
investment grade segments posted slight gains. In the high yield segment, CCC
rated bonds rallied the most (up 8.53%).
Of the top seven markets by market value in the index, five posted positive
returns in January (Indonesia and Philippines were the two outliers). India,
the second-best performer in 2023, was the only top seven market that gained
more than 1% this month. Spreads across the five markets that posted positive
returns narrowed, while duration lengthened across all markets except for China,
Indonesia and Singapore.
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* Commentary - Feb 02, 2024
U.S. EQUITIES MARKET ATTRIBUTES JANUARY 2024
Howard Silverblatt
Senior Index Analyst, Product Management
S&P Dow Jones Indices
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* Indices in This Article S&P 500®Dow Jones Industrial Average®S&P MidCap
400®S&P SmallCap 600®
Key Highlights
* The S&P 500® was up 1.59% in January, bringing its one-year return to 18.86%.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average® rose 1.22% for the month and was up 11.92%
for the one-year period.
* The S&P MidCap 400® fell 1.77% for the month, bringing its one-year return to
3.00%.
* The S&P SmallCap 600® was down 4.03% in January and was down 0.09% for the
one-year period.
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
The S&P 500 continued its gains from December (4.42%) and November (8.92%) for a
third consecutive month (1.59%), resulting in a strong 15.54% three-month rally.
For January, the index broke through 4,800 and then 4,900, posting six new
closing highs (4,927.93 closing high and 4,931.09 intraday high), with the
economy continuing to demonstrate its strength (GDP at 3.3%; PCE at 2.6%; low
unemployment as paychecks increase; earnings and sales), as the market easily
accepted that the strength would most likely delay the first Fed interest rate
cut to May or June 2024, instead of the prior March expectation (the Fed
confirmed this at its meeting).
At the sector level, 5 of the 11 sectors gained for January, compared to 10 in
December (and 8 of 11 for 2023). Communication Services did the best, up 4.84%
for the month (down 3.48% from the 2021 close), and Real Estate did the worst,
down 4.79% (down 26.24% from the close of 2021). Breadth decreased and turned
negative, as 224 issues gained (with 24 up at least 10%) and 279 fell (with 39
down at least 10%), compared to last months’ broad 432 gainers and 72 decliners
(for 2023, 322 issues were up and 179 down, a complete reversal of 2022’s 139
gainers and 363 decliners).
The reality was that most of the Street was wrong about January; not the
direction, but the issues, as the Magnificent 7 were expected to fall but
continued upward (average gain of 1.80% for January; 5.58% without Tesla’s
24.63% decline). They accounted for 45% of the January return (1.59%), which
was down from 2023’s 62% rate. Of note, within the Mag 7, the Mag 6 (excluding
Tesla) would have accounted for 71% of the return. Also helping the market were
earnings. With almost half of earnings in, they’ve been stronger than
expected—if you leave out the special items—and sales were up 4.6%
year-over-year to a record USD 4 trillion for Q4 and a record USD 15.6 trillion
for 2023. Behind those records is the consumer who continues to spend and
charge (even as we are seeing more warning on charge cards and autos), as well
as the government spending via CHIPs, IRAs and Infrastructure, with more
expected from Washington.
February will continue the earnings watch as retail reports come in, along with
the market sizing up if the consumer will continue to spend (and charge). The
focus on politics will also continue to grow, as the possible Biden-Trump
rematch buzz has already started to filter into the general public, even though
the primaries have just started. Typically, the Street will start to take
market positions on the expected November outcome in September, as a clearer
picture on not just the presidency emerges, but that of the House and Senate.
Also in politics is government spending (continued deficit) and financing
(borrowing shorter term, at higher interest rates than long term), as well as a
budget deal that could affect defense issues (not to mention the border, Ukraine
and Israel).
In the background day-to-day (the tide affects all, but does not move all) are
the inflation indicators (CPI, PPI, PCE) and employment (employment, claims,
availability), as well as investor flows (especially away from the USD 6
trillion in money markets and into the market).
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* Commentary - Feb 01, 2024
MUNICIPAL BONDS: NAVIGATING THE CURVE IN 2024
Jennifer Schnabl
Director, Fixed Income
S&P Dow Jones Indices
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* Indices in This Article S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index
Banner Performance, But Far from a Straight Line
The municipal bond market, as measured by the S&P National AMT-Free Municipal
Bond Index, finished 2023 posting its strongest quarter in 14 years. Its 2023
annual return of 6.24% was its best full-year performance since 2019. While
this was good news for many market participants, the path to get there was far
from linear; 2023 presented many challenges for most fixed income asset classes,
with central bank policy at the core. Municipal bond indices proved resilient
throughout the volatility, with favorable technicals and strong fundamentals
driving performance. As a new year begins, municipal bond indices may continue
to be positioned to provide opportunities for 2024, both on a broad basis as
well as across the curve.
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Full Circle: How Did We Get Here?
The municipal bond market spent much of 2023 weathering the storm of interest
rate volatility, as the U.S. Federal Reserve continued the most aggressive rate
hiking cycle seen in over 40 years. While the year began with optimism,
performance across the municipal bond suite struggled through mid-year 2023 as
the Fed raised rates for the 11th time in 16 months to 5.25-5.50%, before
pausing in September. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield reached its peak in
October, surpassing 5% for the first time in 16 years, at which time the S&P
National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index was down 2.13% YTD.
The rest of the fourth quarter would see the rate narrative change sharply, as
falling inflation and weaker-than-expected economic data coupled with the Fed
pause increased market expectations for rate cuts in Q1 2024. The 10-year U.S.
Treasury yield fell from its high and came full circle to end the year largely
where it began, near 4%. Munis rallied in sympathy with Treasuries and the S&P
National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index posted a quarterly gain of 7.29%, its
strongest single quarter since Q3 2009.
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