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AMAZON RISES 45.6% IN 2024: WILL AWS & AI INNOVATION FUEL 2025 RALLY?

Vasundhara Sawalka December 31, 2024

AMZN Quick QuoteAMZN PHG Quick QuotePHG SAP Quick QuoteSAP ADBE Quick QuoteADBE

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In 2024, Amazon (AMZN Quick QuoteAMZN - Free Report) emerged as a powerhouse
performer, with its stock surging 45.6% on the back of exceptional business
execution and groundbreaking AI innovations. As we look toward 2025, several
compelling catalysts suggest this momentum could continue, making the stock an
attractive investment opportunity.




1-YEAR PERFORMANCE





Image Source: Zacks Investment Research





CLOUD DOMINANCE AND AI INNOVATION

Amazon Web Services (“AWS”) continues to lead the cloud computing market,
achieving a substantial $110 billion annualized run rate with 19% year-over-year
growth. The launch of Amazon Nova and strategic partnerships with major
enterprises like SAP (SAP Quick QuoteSAP - Free Report) , BBVA and Mondel??z
International demonstrate AWS' expanding market penetration. Notably, the
company's AI business is experiencing triple-digit growth rates, significantly
outpacing AWS' early growth trajectory, indicating substantial future potential.



The introduction of new AI capabilities through Amazon Bedrock, which has seen
its customer base grow 4.7x in 2024, positions Amazon at the forefront of
enterprise AI adoption. Strategic collaborations with industry leaders like
Adobe (ADBE Quick QuoteADBE - Free Report) and Philips (PHG Quick QuotePHG -
Free Report) , coupled with the launch of Trainium2 and Trainium3 chips,
strengthen Amazon's competitive position in AI infrastructure.




RETAIL EVOLUTION AND EFFICIENCY GAINS

Amazon's retail operations have shown impressive growth with North America
segment sales increasing 9% and International segment sales rising 12% year over
year. The company's investments in fulfillment efficiency have yielded
significant results, with more than 40 million customers receiving same-day
delivery in the third quarter, marking a 25% increase year over year. The
implementation of advanced robotics and AI-driven optimization has led to
improved cost structures and enhanced customer satisfaction.




FINANCIAL STRENGTH AND OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE

Amazon's financial performance in 2024 demonstrates remarkable strength,
particularly highlighted by its third-quarter results. The company reported
revenues of $158.9 billion, representing an 11% year-over-year growth, while
operating income soared 56% to $17.4 billion. More impressively, the company's
focus on operational efficiency led to a significant improvement in free cash
flow, which increased 128% to $46.1 billion for the trailing 12 months. This
robust financial performance underscores Amazon's successful execution of its
efficiency initiatives and growth strategies.

For the fourth quarter of 2024, Amazon projects net sales between $181.5 billion
and $188.5 billion, representing a 7-11% growth rate. The company's operating
income is expected to range between $16 billion and $20 billion, showing
continued strength in profitability.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter net sales is pegged at $187.1
billion, indicating growth of 10.08% from the prior-year quarter’s reported
figure.




The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.50 per
share, which indicates a jump of 48.51% from the year-ago quarter. The figure
has moved north by a penny over the past 30 days.




Image Source: Zacks Investment Research



Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.




COMPELLING INVESTMENT CASE FOR 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, Amazon appears well-positioned for continued growth and
market leadership, with its fourth-quarter 2024 guidance projecting net sales
between $181.5 billion and 188.5 billion, indicating strong momentum. The
company's comprehensive AI strategy and innovations in AWS services and retail
operations position it perfectly to capitalize on the growing enterprise AI
adoption trend. This advantage is further strengthened by strategic partnerships
with major enterprises and the continuous introduction of new services,
suggesting significant AWS growth potential. Amazon's commitment to operational
efficiency through investments in automation and fulfillment optimization
promises improved margins and enhanced customer satisfaction. 

The introduction of new technologies like Trainium chips and AI-powered services
demonstrates Amazon's unwavering commitment to maintaining its competitive edge.
The company's strong execution in 2024, coupled with its strategic positioning
across multiple growth markets, makes it an attractive investment for 2025.
Recent partnerships with major enterprises like Philips, PagerDuty and Comcast
further highlight its expanding reach across various industries, while
continuous innovations in AWS and retail operations suggest sustained market
share gains in the coming year.

While Amazon's forward 12-month Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 3.29X appears
higher than the Zacks Internet - Commerce industry average of 1.79X, this
premium valuation is well justified by the company's exceptional market position
and growth prospects. The slightly elevated multiple compared to its historical
median of 2.83X reflects investors' confidence in Amazon's robust ecosystem and
diverse revenue streams. 

The premium valuation is supported by Amazon's significant competitive
advantages, including its dominant position in e-commerce, rapidly growing cloud
computing business and expanding advertising segment. When considering the
company's strong execution, impressive margin improvements and substantial
investments in future growth areas like AI, the current valuation offers an
attractive entry point for investors seeking exposure to a market leader with
multiple growth catalysts.




AMZN’S P/S F12M RATIO DEPICTS STRETCHED VALUATION


Image Source: Zacks Investment Research




INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION

For investors looking at 2025, Amazon presents a compelling opportunity. The
company's leadership in cloud computing, strategic AI investments and improving
retail operations create multiple growth vectors. With a robust free cash flow
position and continued innovation across all segments, the stock appears poised
for further appreciation.

Given these factors and Amazon's track record of successful innovation,
investors should consider adding AMZN to their portfolios for 2025. The
company's ability to execute its AI strategy while maintaining operational
excellence, combined with its strong financial performance and market leadership
positions, makes it an attractive investment for those seeking exposure to both
technology and consumer sectors with significant growth potential. AMZN
currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of
today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.




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Adobe Inc. (ADBE) - free report >>


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