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THE IMPOSSIBLE ENERGY “TRANSITION”

COMMENTARY Energy


THE IMPOSSIBLE ENERGY “TRANSITION”

Jan 24, 2024 2 min read
COMMENTARY BY
Mario Loyola

Senior Research Fellow, Environmental Policy and Regulation

Mario Loyola is a Senior Research Fellow for Environmental Policy and Regulation
at The Heritage Foundation.
Panelists are seen during the the COP28, UN Climate Change Conference, held by
UNFCCC in Dubai Exhibition Center, United Arab Emirates on December 11, 2023.
Dominika Zarzycka / NurPhoto / Getty Images


KEY TAKEAWAYS

After two weeks of negotiation, the United Nations climate conference in Dubai
agreed last week to “transition away” from fossil fuels.

In the supply-side approach governments would slash oil production or impose
rationing, hoping to make fossil fuels so expensive that renewables are the only
option.

The question is how much damage these policies will do before they’re abandoned.

Copied

After two weeks of negotiation, the United Nations climate conference in Dubai
agreed last week to “transition away” from fossil fuels. Left unanswered is
whether governments are supposed to do that by reducing supply, reducing demand
or both. A lot rides on the answer, but neither would affect the climate much.

In the demand-side scenario, technology saves the day with cost-competitive
renewables. This is the vision of the International Energy Agency, according to
which the more rapid the transition from fossil fuels, the more precipitous the
decline in fossil-fuel prices. In its “Net Zero Emissions” scenario, oil demand
drops faster than supply this decade, pushing oil prices below $30 a barrel soon
after 2030, which corresponds to $1-a-gallon gasoline.

Yet even with fossil-fuel prices near historic highs, effective renewable
substitutes are nowhere near cost-competitive. They’d have to get cheaper still
to compete with $30-a-barrel oil. And in developed countries, especially the
U.S., it’s impossible to get permits quickly enough for the staggering amount of
renewable capacity that would be needed.

>>> This Election Year, Your Energy and Appliance Prices Are on the Ballot

In the supply-side approach, governments would slash oil production or impose
rationing, hoping to make fossil fuels so expensive that renewables are the only
option. This is the dark vision of “Stop Oil” and Greta Thunberg. But as long as
renewable substitutes aren’t immediately available and oil and gas remain
necessary, a small reduction in supply causes prices to soar. That means
windfall profits for energy companies, scarcity for everyone else, and electoral
danger for the governments responsible. Ms. Thunberg claims that climate change
is a “death sentence” for the poor, but the poor are far more vulnerable to
disruptions in energy supply. In the 1970s, an oil boycott aimed at the U.S.
caused famines in Africa.

While the stop-oil view was popular at Dubai, there were enough adults in the
room to keep the conference from committing to it. “There is no science out
there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phaseout of fossil fuel is
what’s going to achieve 1.5 C” (the Paris Agreement’s proposed limit on
21st-century temperature increases), said conference president Ahmed al Jaber,
“unless you want to take the world back into caves.” Saudi Energy Minister
Abdulaziz bin Salman dared countries to try to choke off the oil supply: “Let
them do that themselves. And we will see how much they can deliver.”

Poor countries are clear-eyed about the danger of energy poverty. “We are not
going to compromise with the availability of power for growth,” said India’s
minister for power, R.K. Singh. China has more coal plants under construction
than are in operation in the U.S. Few rich countries have announced plans to
stop drilling for oil or gas, and none of those are major producers. Even
President Biden ran away from increasing the gasoline tax as soon as prices went
above $3 a gallon in the summer of 2021.

>>> Time To Bring Nuclear Energy Into the 21st Century

The administration’s answer to this conundrum is to defer political consequences
via the regulatory state. The Environmental Protection Agency has proposed to
require that all coal and natural-gas plants shut down or adopt unproven
zero-carbon technologies by 2038. Another EPA proposal would require 62% of all
cars sold in America to be fully electric by 2032.

Assuming they survive court challenges and future administrations, they would
impose soaring prices and reduced mobility on Americans. They would have almost
no impact on global temperatures unless other countries, including China and
India, also commit to energy poverty. The question is how much damage these
policies will do before they’re abandoned.

This piece originally appeared in the Wall Street Journal on December 18, 2023


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Second Trump Administration Will Benefit Environment


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