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APRIL 15, 2022


LATEST IPCC REPORT DEMONSTRATES URGENCY & OPPORTUNITY OF REACHING NET ZERO


Natalie Ambrosio Preudhomme
Moody's ESG Solutions
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently released the third
and final part of its sixth assessment report, Climate Change 2022: Mitigation
of Climate Change. This follows the first report on the latest in climate
modeling released last fall and the second report focused on impacts and
adaptation released in February. This third report takes stock of the current
trajectory of temperature rise based on global climate policies and examines
various possible futures. Among its key findings are that to keep global
temperature rise to 1.5°C by 2100, we must reach peak emissions by 2025, but
that current policies, if not changed, would lead to a median of about 3.2°C
temperature rise (with grave consequences for humankind that have been
highlighted in other reports). The report also emphasizes the uneven
distribution of emissions with the wealthiest countries most responsible for
climate change, continuing to emit the most greenhouse gases.

The report’s findings have significant implications for financial stakeholders,
both in terms of the real risk of stranded assets (which stop providing
financial returns  before the end of their expected life) in the near term, as
well as the wealth of investment opportunities that comes alongside the need to
rapidly transition our economy. In this brief analysis, we’ll unpack these key
implications for investors, lenders, insurers and corporations.

GETTING AHEAD OF TRANSITION RISKS IS IMPERATIVE

A near-term transition to a low-carbon economy will save significant lives and
costs in the long term. Limiting temperature rise to 2°C is projected to leave
between $1-4 trillion in unburned fossil fuel and stranded fossil fuel
infrastructure, with coal stranded before 2030 and oil and gas becoming
completely unusable by mid-century, with sub-economic returns in the nearer
term. Keeping temperature rise to the 1.5°C target would in turn leave
significantly more stranded assets, and even sooner.  

However, modeled projections demonstrate that global GDP could continue to grow
even with mitigation efforts that reduce emissions by at least half of 2019
levels by 2030, and that 2050 GDP would be just slightly below projections for
GDP under current policies. This does not consider the economic benefits of the
mitigation, including the lives, operations and assets saved from avoiding the
worst physical impacts of climate change. Further, the IPCC report explains that
research examining these benefits finds that they exceed the costs associated
with the mitigation and that more extreme mitigation measures lead to greater
economic benefits.

Understanding that this essential transition both presents long-term benefits
and near-term risks enables investors, lenders and companies to prepare
proactively: Contributing to emissions reductions allows companies to manage
growing reputation risk alongside operations risk from physical climate hazards,
potentially increasing market share, while reducing the risk of holding stranded
assets and helping to prevent systemic economic disruption.

A range of existing datasets, from GHG emissions and carbon intensity to
climate-adjusted probability of default models and data on the implied
temperature rise associated with a company’s emissions reductions targets,
provides essential tools for financial stakeholders to lead the way in the
transition to a low-carbon economy. For example, Moody’s Temperature Alignment
data finds that the average implied temperature rise of about 4,400 assessed
companies was 2.9°C and that only 17% of companies mention net zero targets,
which the IPCC report underscores as essential to mitigate the worst impacts of
climate change. Detailed data on companies’ emissions reductions targets can
inform investors’ and lenders’ own temperature alignment strategy.

Although these findings also underscore the need for greater ambition in
corporate emissions reductions, as only 9% of our assessed universe of companies
published quantifiable targets.  This demonstrates the need for improved,
comparable disclosure of transition plans, which are essential for their lenders
and investors to identify their own financed emissions and to align portfolios
with net zero. There is also a need for broader datasets examining the way that
targets are framed, the internal structures that companies are putting up to
drive delivery, and the real economy actions that they are taking in their
pursuit of emissions reductions, for example by reducing the emissions expected
in the life cycle of their products. Such data would give a more nuanced
perspective of which companies are more likely to hit their targets and those
for which their targets are more aspirational or, at worst, “greenwashing.”

THE NEED FOR INNOVATION PRESENTS INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

While underscoring the urgency of transitioning to a low-carbon economy, the
IPCC report also demonstrated that this transition is far from impossible and
the technological means by which to do so exist today. Firstly, renewable energy
technologies such as wind and solar have decreased in cost and increased in use.
Secondly, there’s a range of new technologies in pilot or near-commercial
stages, including low-carbon inputs into industrial materials like cement, and
carbon capture and storage mechanisms that are required to reach net zero in
several (though not all) of the scenarios reviewed.

The IPCC report examines the implications unique to key high-emitting sectors,
including transportation, energy and industry. For example, the report
highlights that without mitigation efforts, transport emissions could grow by
65% until 2050. However, there is a huge opportunity to reduce global emissions
through a focus on transportation. While battery-electric vehicles have lower
life-cycle GHG emissions than internal combustion engine vehicles if charged
with low-carbon electricity, batteries present various resource, supply chain
and human rights challenges. Yet, developing batteries with a focus on
recyclability is one way to minimize these concerns. Likewise, hydrogen fuel
cell vehicles require their own charging infrastructure and technology, but also
help to support the decarbonization of more heavy-duty vehicles and aviation,
and may reduce the supply chain challenges. This is just one example of the need
to scale-up existing technology with significant potential to contribute to
emissions reductions.

Similarly, industry accounted for about 24% of GHG in 2019 and would require
scaling up of infrastructure to support low emission primary production
processes to reach net zero. Materials such as cement, plastics and steel can be
produced with a range of emerging technologies to reach near-zero emissions. So
solutions do exist. In addition to demonstrating the significant impacts on
emissions when people adjust their travel habits, the COVID-19 pandemic also
demonstrated the potential for record-setting development of urgently needed
innovations, such as vaccines. This shows the speed and scale of development
that is possible with concerted effort from both private and public sectors, and
this is perhaps an achievement that can be replicated with rapid advancement in
low-carbon technology.  

Overall, the report shows that reducing emissions will be challenging but is
technologically feasible. Investors can leverage data on which companies are
developing products or services related to the energy transition to align their
portfolios with this financing need. By unpacking such datasets by sector,
investors can identify top performers, even in hard-to-abate industries. For
example, Moody’s EU Taxonomy Alignment dataset identifies which energy companies
derive revenue from research and development related to carbon capture and
sequestration or distribution of renewable energy, and thus lead the way in
transition efforts in this sector.

The IPCC report also had an unprecedented focus on the demand side, including
shifting consumer behavior away from carbon-intensive activities and products.
While this factor has not typically been included in many pathways, and thus is
not yet well understood, the report finds that low-demand pathways will reduce
the need for carbon removal technologies, particularly uncertain options such as
bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). The food and land transport
industries show the greatest potential for emissions reductions based on
reducing demand, for example through encouraging car sharing, public
transportation, low-meat diets, reduction of food waste and much more. This
understanding provides useful insights for companies seeking their niche in a
low-carbon economy by appealing to consumers that are increasingly committed to
climate action and may be further empowered by this report. Likewise, this can
support targeted shareholder engagement.  

CONCLUSION

The final IPCC sixth assessment report delivers yet another urgent message of
the limited time humankind has to transition to a net zero economy and to
safeguard our society against the worst impacts of climate change. However, this
message comes with much positivity in terms of the technology we have available
to undertake this transition. This presents substantial near-term transition
risks for businesses and investors but the data exists today to assess and
manage those risks. Likewise, there is a huge investment opportunity and rapidly
developing datasets enable investors and lenders to integrate climate change
into their strategies, managing their transition and reputational risks while
actively helping to finance the transition to a low-carbon economy.

‍

Moody’s ESG Solutions provides insights and analyses on ESG themes and
multi-stakeholder performance, climate-related risks and opportunities and
global sustainable finance trends.

Contact US
Moody’s ESG Solutions
Understand our comprehensive ESG offering
MESG@moodys.com
Media:
Julian Knapp
SVP, Corporate Communications
Sustainability and ESG
julian.knapp@moodys.com
Moody’s Investors Service:
Understanding ESG in credit ratings
Brian Cahill
MD, Global Head of MIS ESG
brian.cahill@moodys.com
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