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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-worst-warren-buffett-pick-to-own-right-now-according-to-1-wall-street-analyst
Submission: On September 26 via manual from US — Scanned from DE
Submission: On September 26 via manual from US — Scanned from DE
Form analysis 6 forms found in the DOM
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<p>To add symbols:</p>
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<p>To add symbols:</p>
<p>
</p>
<ul>
<li>Type a symbol or company name. When the symbol you want to add appears, add it to Watchlist by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return.</li>
<li>Copy and paste multiple symbols separated by spaces. </li>
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<p>These symbols will be available throughout the site during your session.</p>
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SPY $364.92 +0.61 +0.17%
THE WORST WARREN BUFFETT PICK TO OWN RIGHT NOW, ACCORDING TO 1 WALL STREET
ANALYST
Contributor
Keith Speights The Motley Fool
Published
Sep 26, 2022 05:55AM EDT
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Warren Buffett is widely regarded as one of the greatest investors ever. But
he's not having a great year so far.
Most of the stocks in Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway portfolio have fallen by
double-digit percentages year to date. Many are down more than 20%, with a
handful of his stocks plunging over 50%.
Which of these losers is the main one to avoid? Here's the worst Buffett pick to
own right now, according to one Wall Street analyst.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
A SURPRISING CHOICE
Savita Subramanian is the head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank
of America Securities. She's been with BofA since 2001 and is widely respected
on Wall Street. To paraphrase an old E.F. Hutton slogan: When Subramanian talks,
people listen.
So which Buffett pick does she dislike the most in the current market?
Subramanian's choice will probably surprise you. She said in a recent interview
with CNBC that the "worst thing to own" is... the S&P 500.
Buffett would almost surely scratch his head at this advice. Berkshire owns not
one but two S&P 500 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) -- the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
(NYSEMKT: SPY) and the Vanguard 500 Index Fund ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO).
Also, the legendary investor has long advocated that retail investors buy and
hold S&P 500 funds. His will stipulates that 90% of the cash his family inherits
be invested in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund. If you could ask Buffett what to
invest in right now, he'd likely recommend that you buy S&P 500 ETFs.
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TIME HORIZON MATTERS
To be clear, Subramanian isn't completely at odds with Buffett. She acknowledged
in the CNBC interview that she agrees with Buffett's approach to buy and hold
the S&P 500 over the long term.
Subramanian predicts that the S&P 500 will deliver returns "in the mid-single
digits" over the next 10 years. While that's not great compared to the index's
historical performance, it's still better than the loss of more than 20% that
the S&P 500 has delivered so far this year.
But Subramanian doesn't think the S&P 500 has bottomed out yet. She's concerned
that its valuation is still too high. The BofA executive also maintains that the
S&P 500 is "super crowded" -- a reference to the heavy ownership of the index.
A BETTER PICK?
So does Subramanian think there's a better pick than the S&P 500? Yep. And it's
another stock index.
Subramanian believes that small-cap stock benchmarks could outperform over the
short term. She thinks that investors' fears of a severe recession could be
overblown. As a result, the valuation of small-cap stocks is more attractive
than the S&P 500 is, in her view.
One way to follow Subramanian's recommendation is to buy shares of the Vanguard
Small-Cap Index Fund ETF (NYSEMKT: VB). It's down a little more than the S&P 500
so far this year. There are also other small-cap index funds to consider.
However, investors would probably still do well to heed Buffett's advice from
several years ago. In 2013, he wrote to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders:
> The goal of the non-professional should not be to pick winners -- neither he
> nor his "helpers" can do that -- but should rather be to own a cross-section
> of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low-cost S&P 500 index
> fund will achieve this goal.
>
> ... the "know-nothing" investor who both diversifies and keeps his costs
> minimal is virtually certain to get satisfactory results. Indeed, the
> unsophisticated investor who is realistic about his shortcomings is likely to
> obtain better long-term results than the knowledgeable professional who is
> blind to even a single weakness.
Subramanian's statement that the S&P 500 is the worst thing to own right now is
almost certainly hyperbole. There are plenty of individual stocks that will
underperform the major index. What about Buffett's insistence that investors
should win over the long term by buying and holding a low-cost S&P 500 fund? He
wasn't exaggerating one bit.
10 stocks we like better than SPDR S&P 500
When our award-winning analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After
all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade, Motley Fool Stock Advisor,
has tripled the market.*
They just revealed what they believe are the ten best stocks for investors to
buy right now... and SPDR S&P 500 wasn't one of them! That's right -- they think
these 10 stocks are even better buys.
See the 10 stocks
*Stock Advisor returns as of August 17, 2022
Bank of America is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company.
Keith Speights has positions in Bank of America, Berkshire Hathaway (B shares),
and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends
Berkshire Hathaway (B shares), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, and Vanguard Small-Cap ETF.
The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2023 $200 calls
on Berkshire Hathaway (B shares), short January 2023 $200 puts on Berkshire
Hathaway (B shares), and short January 2023 $265 calls on Berkshire Hathaway (B
shares). The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Read More
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author
and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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