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The World in 2022

← Previous PMIs: Virus hits services; further signs of shortages easing


client area » Publications » Global Economics » Global Economics Update



THE WORLD IN 2022

17 December 2021
Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist
17 December 2021


We expect growth in almost every major economy to slow next year, with the US
and China in particular falling some way short of current expectations. At the
same time, while headline inflation will drop sharply, core inflation will
remain higher than most anticipate in a number of countries. This will pose a
dilemma for policymakers. We expect most central banks to tighten policy next
year, but in some cases (though notably not the US) the pace of tightening will
be a bit slower than investors currently anticipate. China is likely to be one
of the few countries in which interest rates are cut.


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Global
Growth and Activity
Inflation
Labour Markets
Monetary Policy

Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist

Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist



MORE FROM GLOBAL ECONOMICS

GLOBAL ECONOMICS UPDATE


PMIS: VIRUS HITS SERVICES; FURTHER SIGNS OF SHORTAGES EASING

The Flash PMIs for December suggests that activity is slowing across advanced
economies, as new virus waves and the emergence of the Omicron variant have
already started to weigh on activity in the services sector. On the other hand,
the PMIs also pointed to the first meaningful easing of manufacturing supply
shortages in 18 months and suggests that price pressures have begun to weaken.

16 December 2021

GLOBAL ECONOMICS CHART BOOK


SHORTAGES TO MAINTAIN UPWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION

Outside China, global inflation jumped from 5.0% to 5.5% in October, its highest
level since 2008. And timely data point to a further rise in November. Base
effects, fading ‘re-opening’ inflation, and falling commodity prices will drag
on headline inflation next year. But persistent product – and, in many cases,
labour – shortages will maintain upward pressure on underlying inflation.
According to our proprietary indicators, shortages worsened in all G7 economies
in October. And supply chains remain vulnerable to disruption related to renewed
virus restrictions in the months ahead. Faced with the trade-off between
downside risks to activity posed by the virus versus upside risks to inflation,
we think that most central banks are likely to press ahead with existing plans
to tighten monetary policy. Accordingly, the rebound in investors’ interest rate
expectations for the next couple of years seems broadly justified. Note: Central
Bank Drop-In – The Fed, ECB and BoE are just some of the key central bank
decisions expected in this packed week of meetings. Neil Shearing and a special
panel of our chief economists will sift through the outcomes on Thursday, 16th
December at 11:00 ET/16:00 GMT and discuss the monetary policy outlook for 2022.

14 December 2021

GLOBAL ECONOMICS UPDATE


THERE’S ROOM FOR MORE FISCAL SUPPORT IF NEEDED

Concerns about the new Omicron variant raise the question of whether there is
scope for policy to be as supportive during a new wave of the virus as it has
been so far in the pandemic. Significant policy stimulus would probably only be
needed if things got really bad again. If they did, financial markets would
probably tolerate a further rise in government spending and borrowing; instead,
the constraints would be political ones.

9 December 2021


MORE FROM NEIL SHEARING

GLOBAL ECONOMICS UPDATE


FIRST THOUGHTS ON OMICRON

It goes without saying that it’s still too early to say exactly how big a threat
the new Omicron variant poses to the global economy. We’ll have more to say as
the picture becomes clearer, but in the first instance there are three points
worth making.

26 November 2021

GLOBAL ECONOMICS UPDATE


BEST OF THE RECOVERY NOW IN THE REAR-VIEW MIRROR

The raft of Q3 data that have been released so far have been the proverbial
mixed bag with some countries (g. France) reporting surprisingly strong growth
and others (e.g. the US) surprising on the downside. However, the big picture
that emerges is that the best of the global recovery is now in the rear-view
mirror. Growth is likely to be weaker than most expect over the next year.

3 November 2021

UK ECONOMICS WEEKLY


THE BUDGET, THE CYCLE AND THE SIZE OF THE STATE

Now that the dust has settled, two key points on the Autumn Budget stand out to
us. The first relates to the size of the state. The Chancellor claimed to be on
a “moral mission” to limit the size of government, but the numbers tell a
different story. The second relates to the OBR's judgement about where the
economy is the cycle, with the OBR's forecast suggesting that the best of the
recovery is behind us.

29 October 2021
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