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World / Middle East


HEZBOLLAH MULLS RESPONSE AFTER LEADER’S KILLING – BUT ISRAEL’S NEXT STEPS MATTER
MOST

Analysis by Nick Paton Walsh, CNN
2 minute read
Updated 2:25 PM EDT, Sat September 28, 2024
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CNN  — 

After Hezbollah confirmed the death of its leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli
strike, what – if anything – can it do next?

The next 72 hours are likely to be full of Hezbollah’s remaining commanders
assessing who is left, how safe it is to communicate and meet, and exactly what
level of pain tolerance it retains as it tries to formulate a response.

What we don’t know is how much disruption has been done to the group’s rocket
inventory by the wave of Israeli airstrikes over the past two weeks.

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Israel appears to have very accurate information as to the whereabouts of
Hezbollah leadership in real time, and so that is likely mirrored in what it
knows about where Hezbollah has kept its munitions.

So far, we have yet to see a barrage of rockets from Hezbollah that has caused
significant (and known) damage to Israeli targets. That may still come if
Hezbollah’s remaining leadership decides that it has to project some kind of
military strength to try to salvage morale and relevance in the region. But if
it tries to project strength and fails, owing to Israeli interceptions, that
will just compound its loss of face.

What is unknown at this point is how fervently Iran feels it needs to be dragged
into this.

It has shown an extraordinarily high threshold for pain over the past months and
may have a longer view in hand. The West and Israel should be mindful over the
apparent change in tempo of Iran’s uranium enrichment and be petrified of losing
the wider war of non proliferation in a region unable to step back from the
brink.

Yet most profoundly, it is Israel’s next steps that matter most. It has shown
that it has the intelligence advantage, military might, and tolerance for
international condemnation of civilian casualties to continue to strike at will.
But this risks turning a fortnight of brutal strikes into another longer term
loss to Israeli prestige.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a defining choice to make. Does
the past fortnight salvage his domestic reputation for security and leave him
better placed to face the music of the cases against him? Or does he again
calculate that an ongoing war without clear strategic direction is his best way
forward?

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Ultimately a wider field of vision must win out. Lebanon’s civilians - and its
southern neighbors - need political accommodation and a ceasefire now,
regardless of what it means for the fate of Israel’s current political elite.





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