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Home / Opinion / Columns /  The accidental statistician who taught world to
estimate farm output
Truth, Lies and Statistics


THE ACCIDENTAL STATISTICIAN WHO TAUGHT WORLD TO ESTIMATE FARM OUTPUT

Premium A caste census will serve no clear worthy purpose (Photo: HT) 4 min read
. Updated: 05 Jul 2022, 12:42 AM ISTPramit Bhattacharya

P.V. Sukhatme’s method of using samples for quick estimates of farm yields was
adopted globally

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For most of the British Raj, India’s crop estimates were based on data from
local revenue officials. The Bengal famine of 1943 led to severe criticism of
such estimates. The British administration turned to the statistical adviser at
the Imperial (later Indian) Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), Pandurang
Vasudeo Sukhatme for help.



Sukhatme proposed supplementing the administrative structure for collecting data
with modern sampling methods. With some training in statistical methods and
supervision by trained staff, the local land revenue official could collect
reliable data on yields, he argued. Thus was the idea of sampling random plots
to quickly estimate yields implemented for the first time in India. Along with
his trusted colleague, Vinayak Govind Panse, Sukhatme began training
agricultural staff in survey methods. The duo also experimented with different
plot sizes to arrive at the optimal size for estimates. Sukhatme and Panse were
among the first to write books on sampling methods based on their field
experiments, and these came to be used by statisticians globally. As the head of
the statistics division of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Sukhatme
helped modernize farm data collection across the world.

If P.C. Mahalanobis taught the world how to study household behaviour through
random sampling, Sukhatme taught it how to estimate agricultural output through
a mix of survey and census methods. Both were statistical pioneers, but had
their share of differences. Mahalanobis had made his name in estimating crop
yields in Bengal, and found the younger statistician’s recommended plot sizes
too large and his reliance on local administrative sources problematic; he
proposed that the National Sample Survey (NSS) team he was setting up at the
Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) be entrusted with the task of estimating crop
yields.



Sukhatme held his ground, arguing that the ‘ad hoc’ NSS enumerators employed by
Mahalanobis were likely to be unfamiliar with local conditions. Local revenue
officials were also well placed to observe crops over their entire life-cycle.
NSS enumerators would inevitably pick the plots with ripe crops at the time of
their visit, and this would lead to biased (non-random) sampling, he argued.
Given that local revenue officials were already familiar with the concept of
large rectangular plots, Sukhatme found these ideal in collecting data on
yields.

Studies conducted by a joint ICAR-ISI team and later by the Planning Commission
suggested that both methods gave broadly similar results. Yet, the controversy
persisted, with Mahalanobis’ successors (at ISI) and Sukhatme’s followers (at
ICAR) insisting on following their ‘own’ method.

In an obituary of Sukhatme published by the Economic and Political Weekly in
February 1997, the Pune-based statistician Anil Gore wrote that Sukhatme’s
differences with Mahalanobis may have led to his exit from the ICAR. When
Sukhatme’s plans to develop a separate institute for agricultural statistics
appeared to be in jeopardy because of opposition from Mahalanobis, the then
agriculture minister K M Munshi advised him to take up the FAO assignment, Gore
wrote.

In a 1999 research paper on the evolution of India’s statistical system, the ISI
statisticians J.K. Ghosh, P. Maiti, T.J. Rao and B.K. Sinha argued that the
differing origins of the two statisticians could have played a role in
Independent India’s first major statistical controversy. Sukhatme hailed from a
region where the patwari played a prominent role. In Bengal, this post had been
abolished by the British. “What appeared to be a scientific controversy was
rooted in the social background of the scientists," Ghosh and his co-authors
wrote.

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While their social backgrounds differed, Sukhatme and Mahalanobis were both
accidental statisticians. In the former’s case, it was literally an accident
that made him pursue statistics. After graduating from Fergusson College in
Pune, Sukhatme wanted to appear for the Indian Civil Service examination. On the
way to the exam in London, he had an accident. Rather than wait for the next
attempt, he enrolled in a course in statistics in the University College London.
Sukhatme would go on to study under the world’s leading statisticians, such as
J. Neyman and R.A. Fisher, before returning to India.

He briefly worked as an epidemiologist in Kolkata before going on to head the
statistics wing at the ICAR, and later the FAO. While at the FAO, Sukhatme’s
work on the measurement of under-nutrition won him the prestigious Guy Medal of
the Royal Statistical Society. His research suggested that calorie requirements
varied sharply across individuals with similar lifestyles, and it varied from
day to day even for the same individual. The Sukhatme-Margen hypothesis—which
suggests that at low calorie intake levels, stored energy in the body is used
with greater metabolic efficiency—is named after him and his co-author,
nutritionist Sheldon Margen.

His views on nutrition led him to criticize the calorie-based poverty norms
proposed by another Punekar, V.M. Dandekar. Dandekar’s proposal won official
acceptance but Sukhatme’s critique of calorie-based poverty norms continues to
resonate. His ideas on blending survey and administrative data sources find more
takers today. Like Mahalanobis, Sukhatme believed statisticians should be
familiar with the subject where they apply their tools. This idea too retains
its relevance.

This is the second of a five-part series on the founders of India’s
once-renowned statistical system.

Pramit Bhattacharya is a Chennai-based journalist. His Twitter handle is
pramit_b


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