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DIESELNET: INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE & EMISSION TECHNOLOGY

Engine & emission technology online—since 1997


THE LOG

24 July 2023: The Technology Guide paper on Hydrogen has been expanded with new
material on hydrogen combustion and hydrogen fueled engines.

12 July 2023: The IEA released the 2023 edition of their Critical Minerals
Market Review. In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), demand for critical
minerals more than doubles by 2030. In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE)
Scenario, demand grows by three-and-a-half times to 2030, reaching over 30
million tonnes. Electric vehicles and battery storage are the main drivers of
future mineral demand growth. The report also notes that importers have so far
failed to diversify their supply sources—compared with the situation three years
ago, the share of the top three producers in 2022 either remains unchanged or
has increased further, especially for nickel and cobalt.


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11 July 2023: The Technology Guide paper on Variable Compression Ratio has been
updated and expanded to cover the Diesel United VCR system for marine engines.

10 July 2023: The IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) adopted the
2023 IMO GHG Strategy, aiming to reach net-zero emissions from ships by 2050
[more ...].

7 July 2023: Summary of the US DOE Vehicle Technologies Office 2023 Annual Merit
Review that was held as a virtual event on June 12-15, 2023 [more ...].

6 July 2023: The California Air Resources Board announced a Clean Truck
Partnership with major US truck manufacturers and the EMA, where CARB agreed to
align with the EPA 2027 NOx emission regulations and to provide reasonable lead
time for new regulations, while manufacturers agreed to meet California’s ZEV
standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles [more ...].

4 July 2023: The Energy Institute (EI) released the 72nd annual edition of the
2023 Statistical Review of World Energy—previously published by BP—presenting
full global energy data for 2022 [more ...].

30 June 2023: A summary of technical sessions from the 30th CIMAC Congress held
in Busan, Korea on June 12-16, 2023 [more ...].

27 June 2023: Open letter: Regulating pollutants from tire emissions—Nick Molden
of Emissions Analytics and Andreas Mayer of VERT Association call on European
regulators to initiate work on a second phase to Euro 7 tire emissions that
would expand the coverage to both nanoparticles and chemical release in
real-world conditions [more ...].

21 June 2023: Wärtsilä released an analysis entitled The feasibility of
Power-to-X fuels for power generation that examines the entire value chain of
renewable P2X fuels and brings more clarity to the economic feasibility of P2X
fuels. The production costs for the four analyzed P2X fuels—hydrogen, synthetic
methane, ammonia, and methanol—ranged from 130 to 219 €/MWh, depending on the
fuel and the production and utilization scenario. Total costs, including
transportation from the fuel production facility to the powerplant and storage
for later use, varied from 149 to 272 €/MWh. For comparison, the Dutch TTF
natural gas futures are currently at about 38 €/MWh, while US (Henry Hub) gas
prices are at about $2.6 per million BTU ≈ 8 €/MWh. Hydrogen was the least
expensive fuel (149 €/MWh) when onsite fuel production and short-term storage
were considered, and the most expensive option (272 €/MWh) for off-site
production scenario (200 km transportation) with a longer-duration storage.

10 June 2023: Emission standards: Our updated summary of California heavy-duty
ZEV programs now covers the Advanced Clean Truck (ACT) Regulation.

2 June 2023: The Business Page of 3DATX Corporation has been updated to cover
the newest generation of the company’s parSYNC® mini-PEMS emission analyzers.

30 May 2023: Registration is now open for the SAE International Energy &
Propulsion Conference & Exhibition (formerly called Powertrains, Fuels &
Lubricants Conference & Exhibition), coming to Greenville, South Carolina, on
November 7-9. Discussions will focus on new and developing technologies that are
being implemented to meet clean and sustainable powertrain performance for
light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicles. Mark your calendars to attend and
register today!

24 May 2023: Summary of technical sessions from the 44th International Vienna
Motor Symposium held on April 26-28, 2023 [more ...].

23 May 2023: As the European energy crisis triggered by the Ukraine conflict
disappeared from news headlines, many framed this outcome as a success of
Europe’s two-decade-long push for renewable energy. This view, however, is not
supported by energy statistics. There is no energy transition, no paradigm shift
or green revolution, according to an analysis by oil analyst Art Berman. The
percent fossil contribution to European electric power is unchanged since 2018.
The contribution of wind, solar, nuclear and hydro actually decreased from 59%
in 2018 to 55% in 2022. The broader perspective is that electric power only
represents 23% of final energy consumption for Europe, which means that wind and
solar only account for 5.3% of the final energy consumption—a relatively small
add-on to Europe’s energy supply. Fossil fuels still make up 72% of European
energy consumption, down from 77% in 2012—the green energy effort has not done
much to free Europe from dependence on fossil energy.

20 May 2023: Summary of technical sessions from the SAE Heavy-Duty Diesel
Sustainable Transport Symposium, held on May 3-4, 2023 in Gothenburg, Sweden
[more ...].

17 May 2023: Emission standards: Our updated summary of EU CO2 emission
standards for cars and vans now includes the recently adopted 2030-2035 emission
targets.

16 May 2023: World oil demand is forecast to rise by 2.2 mb/d year-on-year in
2023 to an average 102 million barrels per day (mb/d), according to the IEA’s
Oil Market Report - May 2023. This estimate is 200 kb/d above last month’s
Report. China’s demand recovery continues to surpass expectations, the IEA said,
with the country setting an all-time record in March at 16 mb/d. While oil
prices have recently been pressured lower by muted industrial activity and
higher interest rates, the current market pessimism stands in stark contrast to
the tighter market balances—the IEA expects that in the second half of the year
oil demand will eclipse supply by almost 2 mb/d.

15 May 2023: The CIMAC Congress will open in less than one month, on June 12th,
in Busan, Korea. The final technical program is now available online. It is time
to register and to book your travel.

29 April 2023: Summary of technical sessions on engine and emission control
technologies from the SAE WCX 2023 Congress, held on April 18-20, 2023 in
Detroit [more ...].

28 April 2023: The California Air Resources Board approved the Advanced Clean
Fleets (ACF) regulation that requires a phased-in transition for California
fleets toward zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles by 2045 “everywhere
feasible” [more ...].

26 April 2023: The European Parliament and the Council reached a political
agreement on the ReFuelEU Aviation proposal, which would require fuel suppliers
to blend sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) with jet fuel in increasing amounts
from 2025 [more ...].

20 April 2023: A heavy dose of reality for electric-truck mandates—The vice
chair of the American Trucking Associations, Andrew Boyle, testified before the
US Senate Environment and Public Works Subcommittee on the future of clean
vehicles, injecting a “heavy dose of reality” into the debate over electric
truck mandates. Boyle’s testimony sheds light, from a trucking company
perspective, how disconnected the EV mandates are from real-world
conditions—considering the lack of electric power and charging infrastructure,
EV costs, weight issues, and the state of the EV technology compared to diesel.
“Today, a clean diesel truck can spend 15 minutes fueling anywhere in the
country and then travel about 1,200 miles before fueling again. In contrast,
today’s long-haul battery electric trucks have a range of about 150-330 miles
and can take up to 10 hours to charge”.

19 April 2023: The Status of Global Oil Production: 2023 Update, by Roger
Blanchard provides a concise summary of oil production rates around the world
and an analysis of future trends and production potential. The global oil
production rate in 2022 averaged 80.628 mb/d. The global oil production rate in
2022 was better than the previous two years because oil demand during 2020 and
2021 was down due to the Covid-19 pandemic. When compared to pre-pandemic
levels, the global oil production rate in 2022 was not particularly good—it was
lower than the production rates in both 2018 (82.986 mb/d) and 2019 (82.170
mb/d). For the period 2008 through 2018, almost all of the global oil production
increase came from the US shale plays, but the situation isn’t looking so rosy
for the future. It can be expected that the US oil production rate could decline
by over 5 mb/d for the 10 year period from 2023 through 2032. A rapid decline of
US oil production would be a considerable shock to the US economic, financial,
and political systems, and would have global implications because there are no
places left globally to make up for a sizable decline in US production.

14 April 2023: Volkswagen is calling for a delay in the implementation of Euro 7
emission standards. According to a VW position paper seen by Reuters, the
implementation of new EU emissions standards should be pushed to at least fall
of 2026 for new types and to the fall of 2027 for all new vehicles. Volkswagen
could meet this delayed timeline—over a year later than planned—provided the law
comes into force in mid-2024, giving carmakers two years’ notice to begin
implementing the planned standards and three years to cover their entire new
fleets. Expecting the new standards to be implemented from July 2025 would lead
to a production halt for many models over many months across Europe, VW said.


ENGINES & EMISSIONS

The internal combustion engine (ICE) has been a key prime mover that largely
replaced earlier prime movers of lesser efficiency—human labor, animal work, the
water wheel, the windmill, and the steam engine—thus enabling modern industrial
civilization. The most efficient type of ICE, the diesel engine, has been widely
used in heavy trucks, construction and agricultural machinery, rail locomotives,
ships, and emergency power generation. Its gasoline counterpart has been common
in passenger cars. Another related power plant, the gas turbine, has been
powering commercial aviation.

For many years, engine developers have been striving to make engines cleaner.
Following the three-way catalyst for gasoline engines, clean diesel technologies
that enabled near-zero emissions of PM and NOx were developed and introduced in
many regions of the world. The focus in technology development has then shifted
to climate change and energy efficiency. The benefit of low CO2 emissions,
traditionally associated with the diesel engine, is no longer sufficient to meet
GHG and fuel economy regulations. New technologies are being developed—such as
new combustion techniques, powertrain electrification, and waste heat
recovery—that further increase the efficiency not only of the engine itself, but
of the entire vehicle. Critically, as GHG emissions occur at all stages of
vehicle life, from manufacture through disposal, low-carbon policies must
consider life cycle effects of fuels and vehicles.

A major challenge ahead is the approaching end of the Oil Age—not only due to
climate policies, but for economic reasons stemming from the depletion of easily
recoverable oil resources. As fossil fuels are replaced by alternatives of
lesser energetic quality, the future of mobility remains largely unknown. While
the world aims to embrace more sustainable mobility, most alternative powertrain
technologies depend on quantities of rare and nonrenewable natural resources,
and therefore are not truly sustainable. Another often suggested approach—that
of fueling the ICE by low-carbon e-fuels—suffers from low efficiency and would
require substantial amounts of energy, which seems problematic in an economy
that no longer has access to cheap and abundant fossil energy. All this suggests
that future mobility will be based on a mix of powertrain technologies, where
combustion engines continue to play an important role.

DieselNet—initially an information service on diesel engines and
emissions—evolved over the decades to become the central internet resource for
technical and business information related to all types of internal combustion
engines, their fuels, emissions, and the technologies required by the clean and
efficient engines of the future.


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