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Home » Chart of the Day » The Only Chart You Need: Moving Average Indicates
Trend to Follow


THE ONLY CHART YOU NEED: MOVING AVERAGE INDICATES TREND TO FOLLOW

Posted by Michael Carr | Aug 24, 2022 | Chart of the Day, Markets

2 minute, 31 second read



For the stock market, only one indicator on one chart is important this week.

The S&P 500 is challenging its 200-day moving average (MA).

A breakout should lead to a sharp rally. A failure should lead to another leg
down in the bear market.

The MA is the blue line in the chart below.

Moving Average: Huge Indicator for Traders



This line is important because traders watch it for signs of overall market
sentiment.

There is nothing significant about 200 days. Even the idea of a MA isn’t that
important.

But anything that traders follow is worth noting.


WHY TRADERS FOLLOW THE MA

The MA indicator defines the overall market trend.

When prices are above the MA, the trend is up. A downtrend is when prices are
below the MA.

Since the bear market began in December, the S&P 500 has tested the MA twice.

When prices failed to remain above the MA, a sharp sell-off followed.

On August 16, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) moved $0.40 above the MA before
closing below the line.

And a large number of traders noticed.

Failing to hold above the MA set off fears that the bear market might resume. It
was enough to trigger a sell-off in the current environment.

The summer rally helped many traders reduce their losses for the year. Many are
motivated to avoid large losses again, and selling achieves that.


WHAT’S NEXT FOR MARKETS

Selling is the reason prices fall.

As more and more traders sell, the downtrend will accelerate.

On the other hand, if buyers return to the market, they could push SPY back
above the MA.

There’s nothing on the chart suggesting that is going to happen.

But if it does happen, the bear market could be over.

Bottom line: Investors shouldn’t count on that.

They should prepare for another move down to the previous bear market low in
June.

This could be an extended bear, like the one we saw for 15 months starting in
2008 or the one that lasted almost 30 months starting in 2000.

P.S. If you’re looking for more guidance in this market environment, click here
to check out my proprietary “Black Ops” investing strategy. I approached this
system with the same military-grade precision that I used while I was a
lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Air Force.

This is the approach I used when I managed over $220 million, and I’m ready to
share it with you.

For around $4 per month, I’ll help you target 3X better returns than stocks,
with 4X less risk.

These are conservative investments, but I’m not talking about boring savings
accounts or money-sucking mutual funds.

Click here to see how you can get started with “Black Ops” investing today.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Michael Carr is the editor of True Options Masters, One Trade, Precision Profits
and Market Leaders. He teaches technical analysis and quantitative technical
analysis at the New York Institute of Finance. Follow him on
Twitter @MichaelCarrGuru.

Join True Options Masters.

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