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XAU
XAU
/USDT
2481587829.42K
2,048.58
≈$2,048.58
-0.19%
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AHD
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507012263.48K
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News
U.S. economic data is presented in advance! Gold price surges to stabilize in
2040
2023-12-21 14:43:21
On Thursday (December 21), the latest economic data released showed that
inflation is low and the labor market is stable. The current macro backdrop in
the United States is optimistic.

Spot gold rose sharply to an intraday high of $2,046 in the short term and is
now trading at $2,042.00 per ounce, with an intraday increase of 0.52%.

Although the third quarter GDP data is old news now, it still skewed dovish as
the annualized core inflation rate was revised down to 2% from 2.3%. This could
also bring some downside risk to tomorrow's PCE inflation data, depending on how
the monthly breakdown plays out. At the same time, the number of people applying
for unemployment benefits was once again lower than expected, with the number of
initial claims basically stable at 205,000.

U.S. jobless claims rose less than expected last week and remained near record
lows, a sign that the labor market remains resilient as companies seek to retain
employees. Published data showed that in the week ended December 16, the number
of initial jobless claims increased by 2,000 to 205,000. There was little change
in the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits in the week ended
December 9. The U.S. economy is growing at a moderate pace this year despite
rising interest rates, as a resilient labor market helps support consumer
spending. Still, continuing claims have been trending upward in recent months,
suggesting that Americans who have been laid off by their employers are having a
hard time finding new jobs.

Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, said that if this week's
U.S. data strengthens the view that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting
interest rates, gold prices will rise, but if the data is stronger, then the
Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a longer period of time.

"We will see an easing of restrictive monetary policies from major central
banks, so 2024 will be a positive year for gold," Evangelista said.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Investors are currently focused on Friday's core personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) report.

The Fed's dovish bias has prompted traders to price in multiple interest rate
cuts in 2024. However, some Fed officials resist the idea of a quick rate cut.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects a 79% chance of the
Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March.

More >
Positive(2531)
Negative(466)
Sudden! The U.S. dollar plunges in the short-term, and gold prices surge to
$2,037
2023-12-21 05:37:10
In the Asian market on Thursday (December 21), the U.S. dollar index suddenly
fell rapidly in the short term, currently falling to around 102.25; spot gold
rose rapidly, with the gold price just breaking through 2,037 U.S. dollars per
ounce, setting a new intraday high. FXStreet chief analyst Valeria Bednarik
recently wrote an article analyzing the technical prospects of gold.

Suppressed by the strength of the U.S. dollar, spot gold closed down $8.85 on
Wednesday to $2,031.30 per ounce, falling to an intraday low of $2,027.44 per
ounce.

Investors are still awaiting Friday's release of the U.S. core personal
consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for November, the Fed's favored
inflation gauge. Financial markets are likely to react positively to these data
as they may confirm or deny the Fed's shift in monetary policy.

Gold short-term technical outlook analysis

Bednarik said that the daily chart of gold shows that bulls are still in
control. Gold price is developing above all its moving averages, with the 20-day
simple moving average (SMA) maintaining its bullish slope and providing dynamic
support near $2022.50 per ounce. Meanwhile, the longer-term moving average is
slightly higher well below the 20-day SMA, but without enough strength.
Meanwhile, technical indicators are trading slightly lower within neutral
levels, lacking enough directional strength to confirm continued declines in
gold prices.

Bednarik added that in the short term, the outlook for gold is neutral based on
the 4-hour chart. Gold prices are trading above a flat 20-period SMA and are
also trading above the 100-period SMA and 200-period SMA. Meanwhile, technical
indicators turned lower but remained within positive territory, with limited
downside strength.

More >
Positive(2651)
Negative(542)
2024 Macro Outlook: The US dollar may continue to be fragile, and the Fed’s
“turn” will trigger changes
2023-12-20 21:36:53
While the strength of the U.S. economy may limit the dollar's losses, the
Federal Reserve's dovish turn in December increases the likelihood that the
dollar will continue to weaken in 2024.

After a 2022 Fed rate hike pushed the dollar to a 20-year high, the dollar has
remained largely range-bound this year on strong U.S. economic growth and the
Fed's pledge to keep borrowing costs rising.

Last week's Fed meeting marked an unexpected turn, with Chairman Jerome Powell
saying the historic tightening of monetary policy that raised interest rates to
the highest level in decades could be over as inflation recedes. The market
currently generally expects a 75 basis point interest rate cut next year.

Rate cuts are generally considered a headwind for the dollar, making U.S. dollar
assets less attractive to yield-seeking investors. While strategists expect the
dollar to weaken next year, a faster pace of rate cuts could accelerate the
greenback's decline.

However, betting on a weaker dollar has been a risky business in recent years,
and some investors are wary of placing a bet too early. The outperforming U.S.
economy could be a factor holding back bearish investors.

Kit Juckes, chief foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale, said that the
Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary tightening and post-epidemic policies have
promoted the growth of the U.S. economy, "fueled the idea of American
exceptionalism and brought about the strongest economic growth since the 1980s."
Big dollar rally." "Some of these gains should be reversed" as the Fed prepares
to ease policy, he said.

The dollar is expected to fall 1% this year against a basket of peer currencies.

The dollar's movements are important to analysts and investors because of its
central role in global finance.

For the United States, a weaker dollar would make U.S. exports more competitive
abroad and boost profits for multinational corporations by making foreign
profits cheaper to convert into dollars. About a quarter of S&P 500 companies
generate more than 50% of revenue, according to FactSet data.

A Reuters poll of 71 foreign exchange strategists in early December showed that
the dollar is expected to weaken against G10 currencies in 2024, with most of
its decline occurring in the second half of the year.

Their judgment may depend on how the U.S. economy performs next year compared
with other countries and how quickly central banks adjust monetary policy. So
far, things have looked uneven. Euro zone economic activity fell in December,
according to a closely watched survey, suggesting the region's economy is almost
certainly in recession. Still, the ECB has resisted expectations of a rate cut
as it focuses on fighting inflation. The euro is up 2.4% against the dollar this
year.

Thanos Bardas, senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, said, "The growth
slowdown in other economies is more entrenched." He is optimistic about the
dollar over the next 12 months. "For the United States, it will be a while
before economic growth slows down." .”

Others, however, see some signs of strength, particularly in Asian economies.
Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi US,
said he believed the market was "too pessimistic" about the future growth
prospects of the Asian giants and India. Accelerating growth could benefit
commodity currencies such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada by boosting
demand for raw materials in these countries.

According to state media reports, the Asian giant will step up policy
adjustments to support economic recovery in 2024.

Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Philadelphia Brandywine Global, expects U.S.
growth to slow and China growth to accelerate. He has been selling dollars and
buying Asian currencies. "The dollar bull market is very mature," he said.

The International Monetary Fund forecast in October that the U.S. economy would
grow by 1.5% in 2024, while the euro zone would grow by 1.2% and China by 4.2%.

Of course, the dollar's direction may depend on how much the Fed's easing policy
and lower inflation are already priced into its price. Futures tied to the Fed's
policy rate show investors expect more than 140 basis points of cuts next year,
nearly twice what Fed policymakers estimate.

Matt Weller, head of market research at StoneX, said: “If inflation stagnates
and does not decline, then the reasons for the Fed to delay interest rate cuts
will increase.” He said, “For the U.S. dollar, the current development trend is
definitely positive and may lead to Price increased."

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Positive(2548)
Negative(317)
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