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Pollen season could be longer, more intense as climate changes, study finds

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Allergies


POLLEN SEASON COULD BE LONGER, MORE INTENSE AS CLIMATE CHANGES, STUDY FINDS

Pollen seasons are already starting earlier in the year than several decades
ago, a trend that is likely to continue.

Pollen from a cedar tree.gyro / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Link copied
March 15, 2022, 4:01 PM UTC
By Kaitlin Sullivan

As the climate warms, allergy season in the U.S. could get worse. 

Pollen season could start up to 40 days earlier and last 19 days longer by the
end of the century if carbon emissions go unchecked, according to a study
published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications. That would increase
annual pollen emissions in the U.S. by as much as 40 percent.




Using historical pollen data and predictive climate models, the researchers were
able to paint a picture of how and when plants and trees could release pollen in
the coming decades. 


TIPS ON HOW YOU CAN SURVIVE ALLERGY SEASON

May 8, 201504:06


Experts note that overall, every region in the U.S. has experienced longer and
more intense allergy seasons for the past 30 years.

“Pollen seasons are starting a lot earlier than they did in the 1990s. They are
longer and have about 20 percent more pollen in the air,” said William Anderegg,
an associate professor of biology at the University of Utah, who was not
involved with the new study.

Patrick Kinney, a professor of environmental health at Boston University School
of Public Health, said the new findings “suggest that the trends that we are
already observing will continue into the future.” 



For people with allergies or asthma, the increase in pollen could have serious
consequences. 

“We think of allergies as stuffy noses and itchy eyes, but it also underlies
asthma, which is a more serious condition,” sad Kinney, who also was not
involved with the new research. “People will probably feel worse and need more
medication as time goes on, and more people will likely become allergic to
pollen, as well.” 


THE CLIMATE-POLLEN CONNECTION

The study’s lead author, Yingxiao Zhang, a doctoral candidate in climate
sciences at the University of Michigan, said precipitation and the amount of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere both play roles in how much pollen plants
produce and emit, because giving plants more food and water makes them grow
bigger and produce more pollen. Factoring in carbon dioxide emissions,
human-caused pollution could fuel a 250 percent rise in annual pollen
emissions. 

But rising temperatures, driven by increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, are the main factor. As average temperatures rise steadily because
of climate change, spring is starting earlier. 



“Current data is very limited, and it’s not enough for us to understand the
effect that increased carbon dioxide has on pollen. But we do currently know
that temperature increases pollen, and we’re already seeing that now,” Zhang
said.  

Zhang and her team used two sets of data to construct their model. First, they
used historical pollen data collected from almost 100 sites across North America
to better understand the relationship between pollen emissions and different
drivers of climate change, such as temperature and the amount of carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere. They combined the data with data from 15 different climate
models and used the information to build a model that projects what future
pollen seasons might look like over the next 80 years as the climate changes. 


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They ran their model using two theoretical scenarios: a worst-case scenario, in
which no actions to reduce carbon emissions are taken, and a moderate scenario.

In the worst-case scenario, average temperatures on the continent would rise by
as much as 6 degrees Celsius, about 11 degrees Fahrenheit. That would extend
pollen season by about 30 days. In a moderate scenario, in which Earth warms by
a maximum of 3 degrees Celsius, or 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit, the season would be
expected to lengthen by about 10 days. 



But pollen changes will look different depending on where a person lives and the
composition of the plants and forests nearby, Zhang said. Northern states are
expected to experience the biggest changes, which scientists have already
documented. 

In parts of northern Minnesota and North Dakota, for example, ragweed season
lengthened by 21 days from 1995 to 2015, data from the Environmental Protection
Agency show. Ragweed season was six days longer in Oklahoma during the same
period. 

Historically, trees have dominated the spring pollen season, followed by grass
in late summer and ragweed in the fall. But the new model predicts that those
seasons will overlap in the summer, when warming temperatures cause some plants
to flower earlier or later. 

“Having the seasons overlap could multiply the misery for allergy sufferers,”
Kinney said. 



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Kaitlin Sullivan

Kaitlin Sullivan is a contributor for NBCNews.com who has worked with NBC News
Investigations. She reports on health, science and the environment and is a
graduate of the Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism at City University
of New York.



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