www.suerf.org Open in urlscan Pro
185.119.88.50  Public Scan

Form analysis
4 forms found in the DOM

https://www.suerf.org/publications/suerf-policy-notes-and-briefs/

<form action="https://www.suerf.org/publications/suerf-policy-notes-and-briefs/" class="js-filter-form">
  <div class="spb_box-text sora-16-400">
    <span class="orange | js-filter-link" data-id="">Martin Hodula</span> | Czech National Bank
  </div>
  <div class="spb_box-text sora-16-400">
    <span class="orange | js-filter-link" data-id="">Jan Janku</span> | Czech National Bank
  </div>
  <div class="spb_box-text sora-16-400">
    <span class="orange | js-filter-link" data-id="">Simona Malovana</span> | Czech National Bank
  </div>
  <div class="spb_box-text sora-16-400">
    <span class="orange | js-filter-link" data-id="">Ngoc Anh Ngo</span> | University of Ostrava
  </div>
  <input type="hidden" name="authors" class="js-filter-input">
</form>

https://www.suerf.org/publications/suerf-policy-notes-and-briefs/

<form action="https://www.suerf.org/publications/suerf-policy-notes-and-briefs/" class="js-filter-form">
  <div class="spb_box-tags sora-16-400">
    <span class="apb-box-tag | js-filter-link">financial stability</span> , <span class="apb-box-tag | js-filter-link">geopolitical risk</span> , <span class="apb-box-tag | js-filter-link">global economy</span> , <span
      class="apb-box-tag | js-filter-link">macro-financial impact</span> , <span class="apb-box-tag | js-filter-link">uncertainty shocks </span>
  </div>
  <input type="hidden" name="keywords" class="js-filter-input">
</form>

https://www.suerf.org/publications/suerf-policy-notes-and-briefs/

<form action="https://www.suerf.org/publications/suerf-policy-notes-and-briefs/" class="js-filter-form">
  <h2 class="spb_box-title sora-24-700">JEL Codes:</h2>
  <div class="spb_box-text sora-16-400">
    <span class="orange | js-filter-link">D80</span> , <span class="orange | js-filter-link">E32</span> , <span class="orange | js-filter-link">F44</span> , <span class="orange | js-filter-link">F51</span> , <span
      class="orange | js-filter-link">G2</span> , <span class="orange | js-filter-link">G15</span> , <span class="orange | js-filter-link">H56</span>
  </div>
  <input type="hidden" name="jelcode" class="js-filter-input">
</form>

POST /publications/suerf-policy-notes-and-briefs/geopolitical-risks-and-their-impact-on-global-macro-financial-stability-literature-and-measurements/#wpcf7-f946-o1

<form action="/publications/suerf-policy-notes-and-briefs/geopolitical-risks-and-their-impact-on-global-macro-financial-stability-literature-and-measurements/#wpcf7-f946-o1" method="post" class="wpcf7-form init" aria-label="Contact form"
  novalidate="novalidate" data-status="init">
  <div style="display: none;">
    <input type="hidden" name="_wpcf7" value="946">
    <input type="hidden" name="_wpcf7_version" value="6.0.1">
    <input type="hidden" name="_wpcf7_locale" value="en_US">
    <input type="hidden" name="_wpcf7_unit_tag" value="wpcf7-f946-o1">
    <input type="hidden" name="_wpcf7_container_post" value="0">
    <input type="hidden" name="_wpcf7_posted_data_hash" value="">
    <input type="hidden" name="_wpcf7cf_hidden_group_fields" value="[]">
    <input type="hidden" name="_wpcf7cf_hidden_groups" value="[]">
    <input type="hidden" name="_wpcf7cf_visible_groups" value="[]">
    <input type="hidden" name="_wpcf7cf_repeaters" value="[]">
    <input type="hidden" name="_wpcf7cf_steps" value="{}">
    <input type="hidden" name="_wpcf7cf_options"
      value="{&quot;form_id&quot;:946,&quot;conditions&quot;:[],&quot;settings&quot;:{&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;,&quot;animation_intime&quot;:200,&quot;animation_outtime&quot;:200,&quot;conditions_ui&quot;:&quot;normal&quot;,&quot;notice_dismissed&quot;:false}}">
    <input type="hidden" name="_wpcf7_recaptcha_response"
      value="03AFcWeA67ySPGkkfdx88Il18rwCGajQLvhwPp1vGcJ7236h9JqPkeGZYm1E-5nM-iIUlfzB2TSnimATYnwS_CFfcJLXHVv7tMbR0gZ5VNovbcLsZpnWtfVqZidm0ViNecEudTlUo5NIfRBexwYyGh7AjUMQdT2sMZyskiEYn9giO_Q3Fkg-gdOQUlQyhjFekDL45EQT4uGqmj2Qs56TVxFsE4gKvCOXXcKPDPa6omJCs4x12rVTY9A2sQbvCC35KyRL5qW3-MaTlRqjNOOesi1Z9tWXKmcDxppBt_q0HdoPhqfJBQmNe7TM97XMTNjP1hAE3wN5kOO1jrSOa5X9d4seNQTtIkaaHEco_mdtr_Y3hsbJJrLnK2F9koNOsoj-iRzuneA9T1BHo54jLA1hQxjoJIZvi8WkNgUHHrWxB25cQ31rRD5ln5LnRlcsbMmnZVsGR5HNE5nkXEVF_bcTQNOhrcq-P-or3Ebiwn1AFLZ6tA4i8apJGiJfGamPWpf9vzsjUUOcPtp96ixaNo-rGcUwt7VMBI-UZDaKGbmtC_v1jW2NG1pYqjJhVsXr2bpmnOxCTCLMVFqmd-NS9hUat---TuGc2oWGvfMduf7_ffhg-DhegpDLF_-pHHJdLEMLIykrM-_JuDOmhtRv8H04oWeETDzephMn5_Fwc8ugaECx3xL5ZOVv0w2NxoO2r3Ji5kwC_bA1PtsSQc7fSZ-d-aB-CrnL2HuEPLLRYkbutJAjCcu_rYUpfBcjOy2ktzGgfyYmnL8RRhZfFK23C0bep1xE3jl4DKjEUvbDrmp3UwqNQtgYbqM_p5T_L5ewm4pZOrfnnIglQhOdo91XTCAc78gX7aRkfsNt9vrDr1X7g5BCDyYPdPtjBHsamSZc0KowF5PoA7xiDBIuhzL7uE-kLM-c6yX9ZIKiBKoKEXBUqhk1GspcslPgi9TvjxURydflgjXxZAKMaopwN5BRD-Ob2Wyt4ZEWPYtjltHgyDDx4_9BP4WfWRV2qIGspSn_4OUMM8rCQJrShF71Fnb-k22LQD4OZuWY1f_JUaklF_eqtHqUhhdiumFXghpq4TJDiKs6845HS_8mTGDlyZ0Gy-mM1LUjTgleaD3SwXBvverppZENNJntc4mhQX2Agrez9CjtCxdhxXjSZrLhKL8y51u86gZR6Bh8KXUHjGb__qPdLVsOsqPVgXiecxDrg2mi7_2LWCw28D4l0DLGdbnDNZup2OZEGTCOGvaIY9dPL3iVowdfWlsG5evPLoWefRnS3WtBHiYuYUzFX4ojFBNe9KCih3lS03qU7VMerGsHpq68ptYgXcKZdHBZk20IUHQc3nmFTvrQ3dVR1qgv6e9ZQ9DdvL6AaG05H9S6cuRLzguH2rCRyep63ZX6bgnS82cumzuGjLc_HcsTNUkJY7tXNSti5ijGDfPqPqO1aOZ_xIUPfxrUPPnh1XHpWLiVssnn8AlwxqTWUqe9m5Zx-rmKbnSA6QbqhtPpXUkJdaXOeI99v9m3-6YKH53E5x_KUvSnxxtY7MxEg5mZvEzyHHei3zq2M8j1LtUPuh7cKmp8sB7ADBCLyVFu7Rk9fkHPcF_fPnybLZZdU7airXdAfGfUDmR20cqy5eZB88gpK2XPjA-9Ly1kRsXa0OsXjZJB5qVi7hb_1P-6ziu_qGCq4E56SvAgm_nE5wQaFeJVRN8zkoOyFuc9aInFQg5G6CtrfZ_ArsCEwpLnZkzg0pH2TyKSV2hH2TopcEmIZwJ3R4K9phMiVdgvzxMSm7xl_Lju_tGYYovlavGpbuzajHsfo4f-Xamq_yG_mg9uUZFJUIN2DIrVs3YOM6u0s3OFMY_FHF8zHa03hWuGJoDfoutBK1LyTyNoJCUvt9R_EP4T8Q-eOnG2uMmERs7ehM62qNktPw3qXIL6VifhLPlEaL53YX">
  </div>
  <p><label><br>
      <span class="wpcf7-form-control-wrap" data-name="your-name"><input size="40" maxlength="400" class="wpcf7-form-control wpcf7-text wpcf7-validates-as-required" aria-required="true" aria-invalid="false" placeholder="First Name" value=""
          type="text" name="your-name"></span> </label>
  </p>
  <p><label><br>
      <span class="wpcf7-form-control-wrap" data-name="your-lastname"><input size="40" maxlength="400" class="wpcf7-form-control wpcf7-text wpcf7-validates-as-required" aria-required="true" aria-invalid="false" placeholder="Last Name" value=""
          type="text" name="your-lastname"></span> </label>
  </p>
  <p><label><br>
      <span class="wpcf7-form-control-wrap" data-name="your-institution"><input size="40" maxlength="400" class="wpcf7-form-control wpcf7-text wpcf7-validates-as-required" aria-required="true" aria-invalid="false" placeholder="Institution" value=""
          type="text" name="your-institution"></span> </label>
  </p>
  <p><label><br>
      <span class="wpcf7-form-control-wrap" data-name="your-email"><input size="40" maxlength="400" class="wpcf7-form-control wpcf7-email wpcf7-validates-as-required wpcf7-text wpcf7-validates-as-email" aria-required="true" aria-invalid="false"
          placeholder="E-Mail" value="" type="email" name="your-email"></span> </label>
  </p>
  <div class="newsletter-checkbox">
    <p><span class="wpcf7-form-control-wrap" data-name="checkbox-729"><span class="wpcf7-form-control wpcf7-checkbox wpcf7-validates-as-required"><span class="wpcf7-list-item first last"><label><input type="checkbox" name="checkbox-729[]"
                value="I have read and agree to the terms &amp; conditions"><span class="wpcf7-list-item-label">I have read and agree to the terms &amp; conditions</span></label></span></span></span>
    </p>
  </div>
  <p><button class="cf_form-btn">Subscribe</button><br>
  </p>
  <div class="wpcf7-response-output" aria-hidden="true"></div>
</form>

Text Content

menu
close
 * About
   * Council of Management
   * Fellows and Research Affiliates
   * Testimonials
 * Membership
   * Central Banks and Supervisors
   * Corporate Members
   * Academic Institutions
   * Honorary Members
   * Member Announcements
 * Events
   * Upcoming & Recent Events
   * Past Events
   * Annual Lectures
   * Marjolin Lectures
   * Videos
 * Publications
   * SUERF Policy Notes and Briefs
   * Conference Proceedings and Studies
   * Conference Reports
   * Book Reviews
   * Guidelines for Authors
 * group
   * Research Prizes
     * Marjolin Prize
     * SUERF/UniCredit Foundation
   * Contact
     * Terms and Conditions
     * Privacy Policy


GEOPOLITICAL RISKS AND THEIR IMPACT ON GLOBAL MACRO-FINANCIAL STABILITY:
LITERATURE AND MEASUREMENTS


SUERF Policy Brief | No. 1057 | 19 Dec, 2024


AUTHOR(S):

Martin Hodula | Czech National Bank
Jan Janku | Czech National Bank
Simona Malovana | Czech National Bank
Ngoc Anh Ngo | University of Ostrava


KEYWORDS:

financial stability , geopolitical risk , global economy , macro-financial
impact , uncertainty shocks


DOWNLOAD:

SUERF Policy Brief, No 1057


JEL CODES:

D80 , E32 , F44 , F51 , G2 , G15 , H56

This policy brief is based on a working paper: Hodula, M., Janků, J., S.
Malovaná and N. A. Ngo (2024): Geopolitical Risks and Their Impact on Global
Macro-Financial Stability: Literature and Measurements. Czech National Bank
Working Paper No. 8/2024. The views expressed are those of the authors and not
necessarily those of the Czech National Bank.

Abstract
This policy brief summarizes the findings of Hodula et al. (2024), where we
review the literature on how geopolitical risks (GPR) affect macro-financial
stability. First, we demonstrate that GPR episodically increases economic and
financial uncertainty, with significant spikes during major geopolitical events.
We then identify two primary transmission channels: the financial channel, where
uncertainty and heightened risk aversion drive shifts in investment portfolios
and capital flows, and the real economy channel, which impacts global trade,
supply chains, and commodities. Using data from the past two to three decades,
we provide graphical analyses that confirm the findings in the literature,
emphasizing the episodic nature of GPR’s impact. These insights underscore the
need for policymakers to adopt flexible, event-specific strategies to mitigate
the adverse effects of GPR on economic and financial systems.


INTRODUCTION

In recent years, major central banks and international organizations have
acknowledged the economic risks posed by increasing geopolitical tensions. These
tensions have strained international relations and underscored the potential
threats that geopolitical risks (GPR) pose to economic growth and financial
stability. GPRs, arising from instability across various domains, have become
more impactful due to global interconnectedness. For instance, the conflict in
Ukraine has generated global uncertainty, disrupting commodity prices, causing
significant supply chain issues, and affecting consumer sentiment and stock
markets.

GPR shocks, often considered exogenous to the economic models typically used by
central banks and policymakers, present a significant challenge due to their
unpredictability and potential to trigger widespread economic disruption. These
shocks can stem from various sources, including international conflicts,
political instability, and global crises, making them particularly dangerous for
policymakers responsible for safeguarding economic and financial stability
(Figure 1). Unlike endogenous factors, which can be better predicted and
potentially also managed through conventional monetary and fiscal policy tools,
GPR shocks evade standard forecasting models, leaving economies vulnerable to
sudden and severe impacts. In this context, it is crucial to understand how GPR
influences the real economy and financial markets.

Figure 1. Geopolitical Risk Index by World Regions


Source: Caldara and Iacoviello (2022), own compilation.
Note: The country-specific GPR indexes reflect the automated text-search results
from the electronic archives of newspaper articles. The resulting indexes
capture the US perspective on risks posed by, or involving, the country in
question. The data were normalized using min-max scaling.

In our paper, we provide an extensive review of the transmission channels
through which geopolitical risks influence macro-financial stability. Initially,
we compile and analyze existing measures of geopolitical tensions and
uncertainty, focusing on their interrelationship. We then explore the broader
effects of heightened uncertainty on the economy and financial sector, as
documented in the literature. Although the literature is abundant, it is
fragmented across multiple topics and lacks a cohesive conceptual framework.


GEOPOLITICAL RISK AND UNCERTAINTY

Geopolitical events and conflicts can have profound effects on global financial
markets, leading to heightened uncertainty among investors, businesses, and
policymakers. To investigate potential overlaps between the GPR index and
existing uncertainty indexes, we conducted a cluster analysis, the results of
which are depicted in a heat map in Figure 2. The first cluster (the top)
contains the GPR index alongside uncertainty indexes related to trade disputes,
politics, and migration policy uncertainty and fears. The second cluster (the
middle) consists of general macroeconomic uncertainty indexes, such as the
Economic Policy Uncertainty index (Baker et al., 2016) and the Real Uncertainty
index (Ludvigson et al., 2021), along with two distinct uncertainty indexes
related to climate and diseases. The third cluster (the bottom) includes various
uncertainty indexes related to the financial sector, such as the VIX and the St.
Louis Fed Financial Stress Index.

When examining the cross-correlation between the GPR indexes and the uncertainty
indexes, we do not observe a consistent pattern over time. However, we find that
GPR events tend to generate significant spikes in uncertainty across various
categories, including the financial sector, the real economy, policy, and
environmental and migration concerns, underscoring the episodic nature of GPR’s
impact.

Figure 2. The Uncertainty Indexes Naturally Group into Three Clusters



Note: The heat map visually clusters the listed indexes. The intensity and shade
of the color indicate the degree of similarity between the indexes. Red
signifies a positive correlation, while blue denotes a negative correlation.
Adjacent to the heat map, dendrograms use hierarchical clustering to group
variables based on their correlation patterns. Variables positioned closer in
the dendrogram exhibit more similar correlation behaviors. The clustering uses
an agglomerative (bottom-up) approach, where each observation starts in its own
cluster, and pairs of clusters are merged as one moves up the hierarchy. The
distance between pairs of observations is calculated using Euclidean distance.
For an explanation of the mnemonics, please refer to the full version of the
paper (Hodula et al., 2024), Table 1.


TRANSMISSION CHANNELS OF GEOPOLITICAL RISK AND MACRO-FINANCIAL STABILITY

Our research identifies two key transmission channels through which GPR affect
macro-financial stability: the financial channel and the real economy channel.
These channels describe how GPR-induced uncertainty propagates through financial
markets and the broader economy, often amplifying the risks to both.

Financial Channel: Uncertainty Shocks, Capital Flows, and Market Volatility

GPR heighten uncertainty in financial markets, resulting in several
destabilizing effects:

 * Flight to Safe-Haven Assets: During periods of heightened uncertainty,
   investors typically reallocate their portfolios away from riskier assets,
   such as equities, and towards safe-haven assets like government bonds or gold
   (Adrian et al., 2019). This shift increases market volatility, depresses
   asset prices, and reduces liquidity, raising borrowing costs for businesses
   and households, especially when coupled with existing financial frictions
   (Christiano et al., 2014).
 * Reduced Credit Supply: Heightened uncertainty reduces the availability of
   credit (Buch et al., 2015). Financial institutions, faced with increased risk
   and shrinking collateral values, often limit credit supply to mitigate
   potential losses. This tightening of financial conditions can create a
   feedback loop, where worsening credit conditions further suppress economic
   activity and exacerbate financial instability (Gilchrist et al., 2014).

The mutual fund industry is particularly susceptible to GPR shocks, with
investors withdrawing funds during periods of heightened risk. For example,
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to substantial outflows from mutual
funds as risk aversion spiked across global markets. Notably, the decline was
more pronounced in countries geographically closer to Ukraine (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Evolution of Mutual Fund Flows around the Onset of the Ukraine War



Note: Annual growth rates of total fund assets with the pre-event mean
subtracted from the time series. Close, subclose, and distance are country
averages. Close includes: Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland,
Romania, and Slovakia. Subclose comprises the countries in the Close category
and adds Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, and Slovenia. Distant countries
are Belgium, Cyprus, Spain, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta,
the Netherlands, and Portugal.

Real Economy Channel: Trade and Commodity Market Disruptions

In addition to financial market impacts, GPR also affects the real economy
through disruptions to trade, supply chains, and commodity markets:

 * Trade Tensions and Barriers: Geopolitical conflicts frequently result in
   trade barriers, such as tariffs and sanctions, which reduce international
   trade volumes. This leads to higher costs for businesses, lower economic
   growth, and heightened inflation (Alcalá and Ciccone, 2004). These real
   economy impacts eventually spill over into financial markets, as reduced
   corporate profits and economic activity weaken the financial system.
 * Commodity Price Volatility: Geopolitical tensions, particularly in
   resource-rich regions, often trigger sharp fluctuations in commodity prices
   (Caldara and Iacoviello, 2022). The impact of commodity price shocks on the
   financial sector and the economy varies with a country’s reliance on
   commodities and its role in the commodity market.

Rising commodity prices lead to increased inflation and affect output and income
differently, depending on whether a country imports or exports commodities (De
Gregorio, 2012). Figure 4 shows that a one-standard-deviation GPR shock induces
inflationary pressures, peaking at nearly 1.5% within two years. The model
suggests that geopolitical risk-induced inflation is accompanied by increases in
crude oil prices and trade disruptions.

Figure 4. Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Inflation: Panel VAR from 1900 to
2020


Note: The figure presents impulse responses to a one-standard-deviation surge in
country-specific geopolitical risk, as determined through a panel vector
autoregression (PVAR) model. This model uses annual data from 1900 to 2020,
based on the following Cholesky ordering of variables (with two lags set
according to information criteria tests): country GPR (standardized), the log of
crude oil prices (West Texas Intermediate), the trade-to-GDP ratio, and the
inflation rate. Inflation data were winsorized at the top 2.5% to filter out
hyperinflation periods. The solid lines in the figure represent the primary
estimates, while the shaded regions show bootstrapped 90 percent confidence
intervals. The data are sourced from Caldara & Iacoviello (2022), FRED, and the
Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database.


SPILLOVER EFFECTS THROUGH CHANGES IN CROSS-BORDER CAPITAL FLOWS

Our analysis also highlights the significant spillover effects of geopolitical
risks on cross-border capital flows. Geopolitical tensions often lead to abrupt
capital outflows, particularly from emerging markets, resulting in reduced
access to external financing, currency depreciation, and financial stress. These
spillovers exacerbate liquidity shortages and financial instability, especially
in countries highly dependent on foreign capital inflows (Aguiar and Gopinath,
2005).

For instance, during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, emerging markets experienced
substantial capital flow retrenchment, leading to severe disruptions in local
financial markets. These spillover effects underscore the importance of
monitoring cross-border capital flows as a key mechanism through which
geopolitical risks propagate financial instability (Figure 5).

Figure 5. Cross-Border Equity Flows Around the Start of the War in Ukraine
(t=2022Feb)



Note: The figure shows the evolution of monthly equity cross-border cumulative
flows in a sample of advanced and emerging market economies. Inflows represent
the money flowing in or out of the domestic country from foreign investors.
Outflows represent the money flowing in or out of foreign countries from
domestic investors. Net flows are calculated as inflows minus outflows, where a
positive value indicates net inflows into the domestic country. The data are
sourced from the OECD Monthly Capital Flow Dataset.


FUTURE RESEARCH AND POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

In our review, we investigated how geopolitical risks affect macro-financial
stability, focusing on their impact on financial markets and the broader
economy. Although the literature on this topic is abundant, it remains
fragmented across multiple areas and lacks a cohesive conceptual framework, as
geopolitical risk is a relatively new source of uncertainty in academic
research. We highlight the episodic nature of GPR shocks and identify the
transmission channels through which they can impact macro-financial conditions.

By recognizing the episodic nature of these impacts, policymakers and financial
institutions can better prepare for sudden spikes in uncertainty, thereby
fostering more resilient economic and financial systems. Future research should
focus more on the spillover effects and feedback loops of geopolitical risks
across regions, and the role of asymmetries and nonlinearities in their
transmission. Additionally, a unified theoretical framework is needed to better
understand both the direct and indirect channels of geopolitical risk
propagation, as well as the varying intensities and durations of these effects
across different economies and markets. Furthermore, exploring the effectiveness
of various policy measures under different geopolitical scenarios could offer
valuable insights into mitigating the systemic impacts of such shocks.

In this paper, we mainly emphasize the importance of unexpected episodic spikes
in GPR, but GPRs can also manifest over the medium- to long-term through complex
interactions with other factors, such as cybersecurity threats, energy market
dependencies, or technological competition. Understanding this broader spectrum
of risks is another important area for future research.


REFERENCES

Adrian, T., R. K. Crump, and E. Vogt (2019): “Nonlinearity and Flight-to-Safety
in the Risk-Return Trade-Off for Stocks and Bonds.” The Journal of Finance,
74(4):1931–1973.

Aguiar, M. and G. Gopinath (2005): “Fire-Sale Foreign Direct Investment and
Liquidity Crises.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(3):439–452.

Alcalá, F. and A. Ciccone (2004): “Trade and Productivity.” The Quarterly
Journal of Economics, 119(2):613–646.

Baker, S. R., N. Bloom, and S. J. Davis (2016): “Measuring Economic Policy
Uncertainty.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4):1593–1636.

Buch, C. M., M. Buchholz, and L. Tonzer (2015): “Uncertainty, Bank Lending, and
Bank-Level Heterogeneity.” IMF Economic Review, 63(4):919–954.

Caldara, D. and M. Iacoviello (2022): “Measuring Geopolitical Risk.” American
Economic Review, 112(4):1194–1225.

Christiano, L. J., R. Motto, and M. Rostagno (2014): “Risk Shocks.” American
Economic Review, 104(1):27–65.

De Gregorio, J. (2012): “Commodity Prices, Monetary Policy, and Inflation.” IMF
Economic Review, 60(4):600–633.

Gilchrist, S., J. W. Sim, and E. Zakrajšek (2014): “Uncertainty, Financial
Frictions, and Investment Dynamics.” NBER Working Paper 20038, National Bureau
of Economic Research.

Hodula, M., J. Janků., S. Malovaná, and N. A. Ngo (2024): “Geopolitical Risks
and Their Impact on Global Macro-Financial Stability: Literature and
Measurements.” CNB Working Paper No. 8/2024, Czech National Bank.

Ludvigson, S. C., S. Ma, and S. Ng (2021): “Uncertainty and Business Cycles:
Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?” American Economic Journal:
Macroeconomics, 13(4): 369–410.


ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Martin Hodula


Martin Hodula is the Deputy Director of the Financial Research Division at the
Czech National Bank. In his research, he focuses on the issues of financial
stability (specifically, assessing the impact of macroprudential policy tools),
banking sector regulation and non-bank financial intermediation.

Jan Janku


Jan Janku is a senior researcher in the Financial Research Division at the Czech
National Bank. In his research, he focuses on the issue of financial stability,
specifically on assessing the impacts of macroprudential policy tools.

Simona Malovana


Simona Malovana is the Director of the Financial Research Division at the Czech
National Bank. Her research focuses on banking, financial stability, the
transmission of central bank policies, and their impact on various parts of the
economy, the financial system, and society as a whole.

Ngoc Anh Ngo


Ngoc Anh Ngo is a PhD student at VSB – Technical University of Ostrava. In her
research, she focuses on non-bank financial intermediation and macro-financial
stability issues


MORE ON THESE TOPICS

Tags:
(Geo)Politics and economic history Economic Modelling and Forecasting Global
financial system, foreign exchange, gold International Trade and Globalization


MORE ON THESE TOPICS


FROM POLICY TO CAPITAL: ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF STRUCTURAL REFORMS ON...

CHRISTOS MARVOGIANNIS, ATHANASIOS TAGKALAKIS

Policy Brief
Read More Download


FINANCING FOR DEVELOPMENT, INDUSTRIALISATION AND VALUE CHAINS

BARBARA MARCHITTO, COLIN BERMINGHAM, DEBORA REVOLTELLA

Policy Brief
Read More Download


ARE INVESTMENT FLOWS FOLLOWING THE REALIGNMENT IN TRADE?

ANA AGUILAR, JULIAN CABALLERO, JON FROST, JUAN RAMÓN HERNÁNDEZ, VICTORIA NUGUER,
CHRISTIAN UPPER

Policy Brief
Read More Download


THE USE OF TRIMMED-MEAN MEASURES OF INFLATION IN MONETARY POLICY MAKI...

TONY RICHARDS

Policy Brief
Read More Download


STRIKE WHILE THE IRON IS HOT: WHY MONETARY POLICY SHOULD BE MORE AGGR...

PETER KARADI, ANTON NAKOV, GALO NUÑO, ERNESTO PASTEN, DOMINIK THALER

Policy Brief
Read More Download


CREDIT STRIKES BACK: THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE 2022-23 ECB MONE...

ANTONIO M. CONTI, STEFANO NERI, ALESSANDRO NOTARPIETRO

Policy Brief
Read More Download


about membership events policy notes & BRIEFS
Follow us:
Linkedin
X
Youtube













I have read and agree to the terms & conditions

Subscribe





© SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum 2010-2023 Société Universitaire
Européenne de Recherches Financières

 * Privacy Policy
   

Web design and Web development PopArt Studio

We are using cookies to give you the best experience on our website.

You can find out more about which cookies we are using or switch them off in
settings.

Accept
Close GDPR Cookie Settings
 * Privacy Overview
 * Strictly Necessary Cookies

Powered by  GDPR Cookie Compliance
Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies so that we can provide you with the best user
experience possible. Cookie information is stored in your browser and performs
functions such as recognising you when you return to our website and helping our
team to understand which sections of the website you find most interesting and
useful.

Strictly Necessary Cookies

Strictly Necessary Cookie should be enabled at all times so that we can save
your preferences for cookie settings.

Enable or Disable Cookies

If you disable this cookie, we will not be able to save your preferences. This
means that every time you visit this website you will need to enable or disable
cookies again.

Enable All Save Settings