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IS A RECESSION COMING? ECONOMISTS SAY LOOK AT WOMEN’S LIPS

By Nicole Goodkind, CNN
7 minute read
Published 7:30 AM EDT, Sun June 9, 2024
Link Copied!
How do we know if the economy is in decline? The answer might be on our lips.
Cavan Images/Getty Images

A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell
newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an
audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.

New York CNN  — 

How do we know if the economy is in decline? The answer might be on our lips.

Estee Lauder chairman Leonard Lauder created the lipstick index during the
economic downturn following September 11, 2001. He noticed that the purchase of
cosmetics, lipsticks in particular, tend to be inversely related to the economy
because women replace more expensive purchases with small pick-me-ups. In fall
2001, US lipstick sales increased by 11%. And back during the Great Depression,
cosmetics sales overall increased by 25%.

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In 2020, at the height of the Covid economic downturn, Estee Lauder’s CEO
Fabrizio Freda said that the lipstick index had been replaced by a skincare item
as customers donned masks and worked from home.

“The lipstick index has been substituted with the moisturizing index,” said
Freda. “But the concept of the index is still there.”

Now we may be seeing that phenomenon rear its head once more. Sephora recently
announced a record sales year and data from consumer research group Circana
shows that prestige beauty growth has outpaced mass beauty sales, growing 9% and
2%, respectively in the first quarter of the year.

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Of course, the so-called lipstick index is a less technical — and more fun —
measure of economic downturn and isn’t always entirely accurate. But as the
free-spending post-pandemic party comes to an end in the US, it’s something
worth exploring.

Before the Bell spoke with Neela Montgomery, CEO of Overeon (a collective of
premium cosmetics brands including BareMinerals, Laura Mercier, and Buxom) about
the outlook for beauty in an uncertain economic climate.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Before the Bell: We’ve been writing a lot at CNN about how Americans are
beginning to rein in their spending. Consumers seem to be taking a hit right
now. But data shows that more expensive prestige beauty sales are outpacing
mass, lower-priced beauty sales. How do you explain that?

Neela Montgomery: Beauty shifted a bit during the Covid times because it became
self-care purchase orientated. I do think that’s making it more resilient to
broader economic trends. As people are thinking about where to reduce spending,
it’s more likely to be in fashion and very high-priced discretionary goods than
beauty. What’s very interesting about beauty and one of the things I really like
about the industry is that we continue to innovate, it’s fast-paced and there
are new trends all the time for people to keep up with. So Bare Minerals Lip
Gloss Balm is a huge new product for us…it’s like a micro-moment of pleasure
that people can treat themselves to. I think that is still very appealing and
seems relatively easy to access for $24. So I think that is why it’s more
resilient. It’s more about the comparative nature of prices and what customers
are using products for.

Do you think the industry has been just resilient or have you seen a boost?

I think if you look at the broader prestige market, it’s been enormously
resilient across all demographics including age and income. Skincare drove a lot
of that for a while and now fragrance and makeup are dominating again. The
category remains way, way higher than one would expect. It’s a considered
purchase, but it’s not so discretionary that it’s unobtainable.

You mentioned that trends move quickly in the beauty industry, are TikTok and
other social platforms driving sales and have you adjusted your products based
on influencer trends? 

Well, Laura Mercier is very much about a flawless face and what makes you unique
makes you beautiful so we recognize that a trend like glassy skin is not for
that brand. But the latte look could be, so we think about it more in terms of
palette trends. For example, we’re about to launch a caviar matte lipstick, and
matte lipstick has definitely made a huge comeback – it’s also super popular in
Asia, which is a very high growth part of our business.

So we think about overall trends and then TikTok trends specifically where
they’re relevant. We can’t respond to every microtrend, we’re not in that kind
of development cycle, but if it relates to our brand, how we then go to market
and talk about it very much resonates on TikTok.

And then the other thing I would say about TikTok that I think is fascinating is
the role of these communities. Social selling has become almost 20% of our brand
.com sales. That’s a really interesting and important trend because what matters
these days for a brand is what people say about you to each other rather than
what you say about yourself.

What do you see dominating the beauty market in the second half of the year? 

Clean has become a real buzzword in this industry, but this whole idea of no-tox
(anti-botox), remains a really important thing… The market is bifurcating
between this very authentic, real look and people who are getting more cosmetic
work done. What we see is a need for more of these kinds of efficacious products
for people who don’t want to go down the cosmetic procedure route or injectables
route. And then we continue to see that sort of clean girl with a pop of color
look. So you know, we have this sort of red lip…We continue to see that grow and
expand.

I think what’s fascinating is how informed people are about ingredients –
whether it’s a sesame seed extract in the lip gloss, or using sea buckthorn or
just being educated around some of these unique natural ingredients that have,
probably not the same efficacy, but have efficacy as well compared to more more
obvious things like retinol.


AS AI BOOMS, MICROSOFT’S DEAL WITH A STARTUP COMES UNDER FEDERAL INVESTIGATION

The Federal Trade Commission is investigating a recent Microsoft deal with
artificial intelligence startup Inflection, according to a person familiar with
the matter, as US antitrust regulators ramp up scrutiny of the red-hot AI
industry.

Microsoft announced in March that it had hired Inflection’s co-founders and a
number of its staff to lead its Copilot program, and Inflection said its AI
model would be hosted on Microsoft’s cloud platform. As part of that deal,
Microsoft was said to have paid Inflection $650 million. In its announcement at
the time, Microsoft described the move as merely a hiring decision, not as an
acquisition.

The FTC probe into Microsoft concerns whether the company’s investment in
Inflection constituted an acquisition that Microsoft failed to disclose to the
government, one of the people said.

The investigation comes as antitrust officials at the FTC and the Justice
Department are nearing a final agreement this week on how to jointly oversee AI
giants such as Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, OpenAI and others, two people familiar
with the matter told CNN.

That agreement, which could be finalized within days, would appoint the DOJ as
the lead investigator of Nvidia, while the FTC would take responsibility for
investigating Microsoft and OpenAI, the people said. DOJ will likely continue
its role in overseeing Google, one of the people indicated. Any investigations
would focus on whether the companies have used their dominant positions in the
AI industry to harm competition through abusive and illegal behavior.

The agreement shows enforcers are poised for a broad crackdown on some of the
most well-known players in the AI sector, said Sarah Myers West, managing
director of the AI Now Institute and a former AI advisor to the FTC.

“Clearance processes like this are usually a key step before advancing an
investigation,” West said. “This is a clear sign they’re moving quickly here.”

Microsoft declined to comment on the DOJ-FTC agreement but, in a statement,
defended its partnership with Inflection.

Read more from CNN’s Brian Fung here.


UP NEXT

Monday: The US Department of Treasury holds auctions for 3-year notes.

Tuesday: The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is released.

Wednesday: The Federal Reserve announces its latest interest rate decision and
releases a fresh set of economic projections, followed by a news conference
featuring Chair Jerome Powell. Plus, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will
release May’s Consumer Price Index.

Thursday: Earnings from Signet Jewelers. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics
releases the Producer Price Index for May.

Friday: The Federal Reserve Board submits written reports to Congress containing
discussions of “the conduct of monetary policy and economic developments and
prospects for the future.”


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in which content is shown to you, so that it is even easier for you to find
(non-advertising) content that matches your interests.

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CREATE PROFILES TO PERSONALISE CONTENT 11 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE

Create profiles to personalise content

Information about your activity on this service (for instance, forms you submit,
non-advertising content you look at) can be stored and combined with other
information about you (such as your previous activity on this service or other
websites or apps) or similar users. This is then used to build or improve a
profile about you (which might for example include possible interests and
personal aspects). Your profile can be used (also later) to present content that
appears more relevant based on your possible interests, such as by adapting the
order in which content is shown to you, so that it is even easier for you to
find content that matches your interests.

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MEASURE ADVERTISING PERFORMANCE 36 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE

Measure advertising performance

Information regarding which advertising is presented to you and how you interact
with it can be used to determine how well an advert has worked for you or other
users and whether the goals of the advertising were reached. For instance,
whether you saw an ad, whether you clicked on it, whether it led you to buy a
product or visit a website, etc. This is very helpful to understand the
relevance of advertising campaigns.

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MEASURE CONTENT PERFORMANCE 15 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE

Measure content performance

Information regarding which content is presented to you and how you interact
with it can be used to determine whether the (non-advertising) content e.g.
reached its intended audience and matched your interests. For instance, whether
you read an article, watch a video, listen to a podcast or look at a product
description, how long you spent on this service and the web pages you visit etc.
This is very helpful to understand the relevance of (non-advertising) content
that is shown to you.

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UNDERSTAND AUDIENCES THROUGH STATISTICS OR COMBINATIONS OF DATA FROM DIFFERENT
SOURCES 22 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE

Understand audiences through statistics or combinations of data from different
sources

Reports can be generated based on the combination of data sets (like user
profiles, statistics, market research, analytics data) regarding your
interactions and those of other users with advertising or (non-advertising)
content to identify common characteristics (for instance, to determine which
target audiences are more receptive to an ad campaign or to certain contents).

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DEVELOP AND IMPROVE SERVICES 32 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE

Develop and improve services

Information about your activity on this service, such as your interaction with
ads or content, can be very helpful to improve products and services and to
build new products and services based on user interactions, the type of
audience, etc. This specific purpose does not include the development or
improvement of user profiles and identifiers.

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ENSURE SECURITY, PREVENT AND DETECT FRAUD, AND FIX ERRORS 43 PARTNERS CAN USE
THIS PURPOSE

Always Active

Your data can be used to monitor for and prevent unusual and possibly fraudulent
activity (for example, regarding advertising, ad clicks by bots), and ensure
systems and processes work properly and securely. It can also be used to correct
any problems you, the publisher or the advertiser may encounter in the delivery
of content and ads and in your interaction with them.

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DELIVER AND PRESENT ADVERTISING AND CONTENT 34 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE

Always Active

Certain information (like an IP address or device capabilities) is used to
ensure the technical compatibility of the content or advertising, and to
facilitate the transmission of the content or ad to your device.

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MATCH AND COMBINE DATA FROM OTHER DATA SOURCES 29 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE

Always Active

Information about your activity on this service may be matched and combined with
other information relating to you and originating from various sources (for
instance your activity on a separate online service, your use of a loyalty card
in-store, or your answers to a survey), in support of the purposes explained in
this notice.

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LINK DIFFERENT DEVICES 28 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE

Always Active

In support of the purposes explained in this notice, your device might be
considered as likely linked to other devices that belong to you or your
household (for instance because you are logged in to the same service on both
your phone and your computer, or because you may use the same Internet
connection on both devices).

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IDENTIFY DEVICES BASED ON INFORMATION TRANSMITTED AUTOMATICALLY 33 PARTNERS CAN
USE THIS PURPOSE

Always Active

Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it
automatically sends when accessing the Internet (for instance, the IP address of
your Internet connection or the type of browser you are using) in support of the
purposes exposed in this notice.

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STRICTLY NECESSARY COOKIES

Always Active

These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched
off in our systems. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these
cookies, but some parts of the site will not work.

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