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EDITORS’ BLOG JUMP TO
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EDITORS’ BLOG

LIVE COVERAGE
1h agoNovember 5, 2024


ELECTION MISCELLANY #6

by Josh Marshall

We’re already starting to see from the states releasing good real-time data that
Election Day isn’t going to be as red as you’d expect based on 2020 or 2022.
That’s not so much good for Democrats as simply what we should expect based on
seeing more Republican and less Democratic early voting. As we’ve discussed, the
relationship between early and Election Day voting tends to be largely osmotic:
more Republicans voting early means fewer available on Election Day. Not
complicated. The differences that determine election outcomes are going to be
very marginal ones. One of the weird things about early vote counting mania this
year is that people somehow get the idea that whole chunks of the electorate
somehow just aren’t going to show up at all. That never made any sense.

LIVE COVERAGE
2h agoNovember 5, 2024


A PREP FOR WATCHING ELECTION RESULTS

 Member Newsletter
by Josh Marshall

We are going to be here a while today. And when I thought about writing today’s
Backchannel, a standard post didn’t make sense to me since anything you receive
in the late afternoon will be immediately dated. So I thought I’d write a simple
cheat sheet of ways to watch election results tonight — if you’re into that sort
of thing — and how to get as much signal and as little noise as possible. You’ll
know many of these things. But I’m just putting them here in one place.

JOIN TO READ MORE
LIVE COVERAGE
Nov 4th, 2024November 4, 2024


POLITICAL BETTING MARKETS REMAIN OVER-VALUED

by Josh Marshall

If you’ve followed my thinking on this you know I’ve long had a pretty low
opinion of political betting markets. Their user base tends to lean right, with
the built-in bias you would expect that to cause. They’re also prone to
manipulation. But the biggest problem is that, in my view, they’re largely
derivative of polls and the press narratives. Garbage in, garbage out. I will
simply note that the wild gyrations all of them have been doing over the last
three or four days provide, I think, some backing for my argument.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


LIVE COVERAGE
Nov 4th, 2024November 4, 2024


AN INTERESTING DATA POINT


by Josh Marshall

I’ve told you a few times about Professor Michael McDonald’s early vote
analysis. He has a paywalled final analysis of the early vote in North Carolina.
The upshot is that by conventional early vote analysis, Donald Trump appears
poised to win North Carolina. That wouldn’t be a surprising result either on the
basis of history or the current polls, which show a dead heat race with the
slightest advantage to Trump.

But McDonald also notes that it is an unusual cycle with conflicting signals.
The polls look more favorable to Harris than the numbers in the early vote.
Actual votes matter more than polls of votes, by definition. But this is a
reminder of what early vote analysis is based on. We’re largely going on party
registration and limited demographic markers as a proxy for voter intention.
Those will generally point in the right direction, except when they don’t.

Read More 
LIVE COVERAGE
Nov 4th, 2024November 4, 2024


A SMALL CODA TO TODAY’S BACKCHANNEL


by Josh Marshall

As I argued in today’s Backchannel, I believe Harris, win or lose, has run an
almost flawless campaign. To the extent that is true, we had a preview of it in
that cruelest month, July 2024. I do not think there was a single story
published discussing murmurs from Harris world about whether Biden should drop
out, what kind of race she might run, anything like that. It goes without saying
that that kind of chatter would have been poisonous for the Democrats’ eventual
chances. Despite some people’s illusions, Harris was always the only plausible
replacement candidate. It doesn’t take a genius to know such chatter would be
damaging. But as I argued in the last post, it comes down to execution. It’s not
enough for the potential candidate not to be talking, or her top advisors. It’s
a matter of controlling every random person who might claim to have insight into
Harris’ thinking. That requires a total level of discipline that starts at the
top. I suspect it’s only really possible if, as we’ve been told by the people in
Biden world, Harris remained absolutely loyal to Biden until the moment he
decided to step aside. I don’t want to rehearse that whole question again. But
that is a very, very tough position to be in. It would be irresponsible not to
be ready for the call to come. But even the hint of preparation for it would be
disastrous. It was an accurate preview of the kind of campaign Harris would run.

SHOW MORE

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LIVE COVERAGE
45m ago
|
Live Blog


A TREMENDOUSLY CONSEQUENTIAL ELECTION DAY IS FINALLY HERE


LIVE COVERAGE
45m ago


TRUMP WAITS TIL ELECTION DAY TO FINALLY SAY WHAT HE MEANS ON ABORTION


LIVE COVERAGE
51m agoNovember 5, 2024


CANADIAN PARLIAMENT PICKS TODAY TO INTERVIEW ALLEGED RUSSIAN ASSET


LIVE COVERAGE
1h agoNovember 5, 2024


COURT ORDER EXTENDS POLLING PLACE HOURS IN CAMBRIA COUNTY, PENNSYLVANIA


LIVE COVERAGE
1h agoNovember 5, 2024


FBI: BOMB THREATS TO POLLING LOCATIONS APPEAR TO COME FROM RUSSIA


LIVE COVERAGE
1h agoNovember 5, 2024


THINGS ARE GOING ‘VERY SMOOTHLY’ IN MARICOPA COUNTY


LIVE COVERAGE
1h ago


CAPITOL POLICE ARREST MAN WITH ‘TORCH’ WHO ‘SMELLED LIKE FUEL’


LIVE COVERAGE
2h ago


JUDGE SHUTS DOWN LAST DITCH GOP EFFORT TO DISRUPT MARICOPA VOTE


LIVE COVERAGE
34m agoNovember 5, 2024
|
Muckraker


‘SPIRITUAL WARFARE,’ QANON, AND A SITTING SENATOR: INSIDE THE WILD WORLD OF MIKE
FLYNN’S POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE



LIVE COVERAGE
5h agoNovember 5, 2024
|
Morning Memo


A PLAINTIVE CRY FOR ELECTION REFORMS BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE

INSIDE: Luke Meyer … Elon Musk … Tina Smith

LIVE COVERAGE
Nov 4th, 2024November 4, 2024
|
Where Things Stand


THE DIET MOUNTAIN DEW RACE FOR MOST BLUE-COLLAR POLITICIAN IS DERAILED BY RFK
JR’S EXTREME BELIEFS

This is your TPM evening briefing.

LIVE COVERAGE
20m ago
New York Times
|



MUSK WILL SPEND ELECTION NIGHT IN FLORIDA WITH TRUMP 



LIVE COVERAGE
10:34 a.m.
Washington Post
|



MUSK SHARES VIDEO WITH QANON REFERENCES 



LIVE COVERAGE
10:32 a.m.
CNN
|



TRUMP INFLUENCER PAID $100 BY RUSSIAN AGENT TO POST FAKE VOTER FRAUD VIDEO 



LIVE COVERAGE
10:29 a.m.
Politico
|



TRUMP FIELD DIRECTOR MAINTAINED SECRET IDENTITY AS WHITE NATIONALIST 



LIVE COVERAGE
10:28 a.m.
Wall Street Journal
|



BETTING MARKETS STILL THINK TRUMP WILL WIN 



LIVE COVERAGE
10:27 a.m.
Axios
|



MAJORITY OF NEWSPAPERS DO NOT ENDORSE THIS YEAR 



LIVE COVERAGE
Nov 4th, 2024
NYT
|



FAR-RIGHT EXTREMIST GROUPS ARE ORGANIZING ON TELEGRAM AHEAD OF ELECTION DAY 



LIVE COVERAGE
Nov 4th, 2024
AP
|



TRUMP TALKS ABOUT REPORTERS BEING SHOT AND SAYS HE SHOULDN’T HAVE LEFT WHITE
HOUSE AFTER 2020 LOSS 



LIVE COVERAGE
Nov 4th, 2024
Washington Post
|



FENCING ERECTED AT WHITE HOUSE, VP RESIDENCE AS D.C. BRACES FOR UNREST 



LIVE COVERAGE
Nov 1st, 2024
USA Today
|



REPUBLICAN-TIED GROUP SPENDS $1.5 MILLION TO PROMOTE GREEN PARTY’S JILL STEIN IN
WISCONSIN 





PODCAST

LIVE COVERAGE
Oct 30th, 2024
|
Podcast


EP. 347: TAKING OUT THE GARBAGE




Kate and Josh discuss both campaigns’ closing arguments and the mess at the
Washington Post.

listen 


FEATURED

LIVE COVERAGE
News


SOME TRUMP ELECTORS IN SWING STATES ARE PRIMED TO ‘STOP THE STEAL’ AGAIN IN 2024

by Josh Kovensky
READ 


RECENT

LIVE COVERAGE
34m agoNovember 5, 2024
|
Muckraker


‘SPIRITUAL WARFARE,’ QANON, AND A SITTING SENATOR: INSIDE THE WILD WORLD OF MIKE
FLYNN’S POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE


LIVE COVERAGE
45m ago
|
Live Blog


A TREMENDOUSLY CONSEQUENTIAL ELECTION DAY IS FINALLY HERE


LIVE COVERAGE
5h agoNovember 5, 2024
|
Morning Memo


A PLAINTIVE CRY FOR ELECTION REFORMS BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE


LIVE COVERAGE
Nov 4th, 2024
|
Live Blog


HARRIS PUSHES TO MAKE STRONG CLOSING VIBES A REALITY IN LAST DAY OF CAMPAIGN


LIVE COVERAGE
Nov 4th, 2024November 4, 2024
|
Where Things Stand


THE DIET MOUNTAIN DEW RACE FOR MOST BLUE-COLLAR POLITICIAN IS DERAILED BY RFK
JR’S EXTREME BELIEFS


LIVE COVERAGE
Nov 4th, 2024November 4, 2024
|
News


TRUMP CLAIMS ‘ILLEGAL ALIEN’ VOTING IS RAMPANT. HIS OWN PARTY DISAGREES.


LIVE COVERAGE
Nov 4th, 2024November 4, 2024
|
Morning Memo


TRUMP SPENT THE FINAL WEEKEND SHOWING EXACTLY WHO HE IS


SHOW MORE

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DON’T MISS

LIVE COVERAGE
News


TRUMP SAYS HE’LL FIGHT FOR WORKING-CLASS AMERICANS. HIS FIRST TERM SUGGESTS HE
WON’T.

From cutting children’s disability benefits to allowing employers to pocket
workers’ tips, Trump tried to slash protections for the working poor in ways
that have been forgotten by many.
by Eli Hager
LIVE COVERAGE
Cafe


HOW TRUMP’S RACIST TALK OF IMMIGRANT ‘BAD GENES’ ECHOES SOME OF THE LAST
CENTURY’S DARKEST IDEAS ABOUT EUGENICS

by Shannon Bow O'Brien



LIVE COVERAGE
Where Things Stand


TRUMP AGAIN REITERATES THAT WHEN HE SAYS ‘ENEMY FROM WITHIN’ HE MEANS SPECIFIC
PEOPLE

by Nicole Lafond



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