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Dear Sofia,

As we approach the threshold of 2024, your expertise as a leader in the
Commercial Real Estate (CRE) market primes you for an era ripe with growth and
innovation. 

The European commercial real estate market is navigating through a phase of
economic recalibration. As Central Banks have concluded their rate-hiking
cycles, property values are at a critical juncture, indicating a bottoming out
in the near future. Despite a backdrop of stagnant growth there is a silver
lining with the inflationary pressures easing, particularly from the energy
sector.

The euro area and the UK are bracing to narrowly avoid recession, with economic
expansion expected to remain subdued. Investors and stakeholders are advised to
maintain a vigilant but optimistic outlook as the market adjusts to these
evolving economic conditions .

Download the Economic Outlook with further insights to navigate the European
real estate market in 2024.



DOWNLOAD OUTLOOK

CONTACT OUR TEAM

Download Sector-Specific Outlook Reports 2024

Beyond broad economic analysis, the reports provide granular insights into
various segments of the market. Each sector report is dissected to equip you
with the knowledge to make informed investment decisions.

Office Sector Outlook

As the European office market adapts to hybrid work models, businesses are
increasingly renewing leases, opting for flexible office spaces and
incorporating 'option space' for expansion in lease agreements.

The trend towards 'green leases' is gaining momentum, promoting environmentally
sustainable practices. Investment volumes have declined, but investors are now
focusing on value-add opportunities, especially in high-quality offices with
strong ESG credentials, to capitalize on faster repricing and potential growth.

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Logistics & Industrial Sector Outlook

Business confidence is expected to stabilize, with 2024 take-up volumes
predicted to reach pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, vacancy rates are rising as
demand slows and new developments enter the market. Speculative development is
anticipated to decrease as developers aim to avoid oversupply. Redevelopment and
refurbishment are becoming more popular, especially where older stock exists or
speculative development is limited. As the pace of rental growth slows,
landlords are offering more incentives in lease negotiations to secure income.
This trend could impact headline rental growth.

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Retail Sector Outlook

European retail, amidst economic recovery, is grappling with challenges like
high inflation, rising interest rates, and low consumer confidence, leading to
stagnant trade volumes with no expected improvement until late 2024. However,
the retail landscape is evolving, with a return to physical stores emphasizing
the need for attractive, engaging spaces. Fashion retailers, focusing on prime
locations and in-store experiences, are leading this trend, and there's a
growing demand for immersive, experiential brands blending retail with leisure.

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Living Sector Outlook

The EMEA living sector, especially in areas like senior living, is experiencing
sustained demand due to consistent population aging and rising life expectancy.

Despite a downturn in investment volumes in 2023, the living sector remains
resilient, exhibiting lower volatility in capital value changes compared to
other real estate sectors. It consistently accounts for 20-25% of real estate
transactions in the EMEA region, attracting continued interest from major
institutional investors planning to allocate more capital in the medium term.

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Hotel Sector Outlook

The European hotel sector is showing resilience despite economic challenges,
outperforming the broader real estate market. This is underpinned by the
constrained supply and the strong operating performance recovery particularly in
resort destinations and urban markets driven by leisure travel. This is expected
to continue in 2024, albeit at slower pace. The growing income, offsetting yield
decompression, is helping to bridge to bid-ask gap which should translate into
increased transaction activity, especially in the second half on next year.

VIEW NOW

Engage with Our Experts

The reports are just the beginning. Reach out for a bespoke discussion on how
these insights along with detailed forecasts across 120 markets can be
integrated into your strategic planning.

Sukhdeep Dhillon
Head of EMEA Forecasting
sukhdeep.dhillon@cushwake.com

Guilherme Neves
Senior Research Analyst
guilherme.neves@cushwake.com

Rebecca Rockey
Deputy Chief Economist, Global Head of Forecasting
rebecca.rockey@cushwake.com

Dr Dominic Brown
Head of International Research
dominic.brown@cushwake.com



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