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LOWE: NIKOLA JOKIC AND THE MOST TERRIFYING SIGHT IN THE NBA
Denver Nuggets center is still the world's best basketball player. Garrett
Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images
* Zach Lowe, ESPN Senior WriterMar 1, 2024, 08:00 AM ET
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This week, we highlight Nikola Jokic and the running Nuggets, a screening Tyrese
Haliburton, a nifty Bam Adebayo development, a theory about the demise of Jordan
Poole and two delightful rituals you need to see.
Jump to Lowe's Things:
MVP is Jokic's to lose | Hali the screener?
Promising Raptors rookie | Staggering Pistons rotations
Beware of Suggs | Bam's left hand
What happened to Poole? | Two Cavs rituals
1. THE DENVER NUGGETS AND THE SINGLE SCARIEST SIGHT IN THE NBA
Apologies to Los Angeles Lakers fans for making them relive last year's
conference finals sweep -- though this clip is actually from Denver's Feb. 8 win
-- but this is officially the most terrifying sight in basketball:
If your center pursues an offensive rebound and loses out to Jokic -- and then
ends up trailing Jokic in semi-transition -- just cover your eyes and assume the
worst. It has been happening more lately as the champs shift into something
closer to playoff gear.
The Nuggets do not run much. They are 27th in pace and dead last in scoring
efficiency in transition, per Cleaning The Glass -- abysmal off both steals and
live rebounds. Their pace mostly suits them. The Nuggets' brilliance -- the
reason they are a better postseason team than regular-season team -- lies in the
methodical nature of the Jamal Murray-Jokic two-man game.
They pick you apart one cut, screen, hesitation dribble and eyebrow fake at a
time -- so slow and precise, you almost don't notice how much trouble you're in
when the shot clock ticks into single digits and Jokic slings the final blow.
They are comfortable where most offenses grow skittish -- in crowds, in the
muck, in the midrange. They are unbothered by schemes, zones, switches, whatever
tactics you try.
But they reach another gear when they pounce on transition chances. It unleashes
their role players for easy baskets, and helps the Nuggets generate more 3s. The
Nuggets have sunk from 22nd in 3-point rate last season to 28th now, and they
become very hard to beat when Jokic rumbles them into a few extra open 3s.
Even amid this rickety fast-breaking season, the Nuggets are miles more
efficient in transition with Jokic on the floor, per Cleaning The Glass.
Since Feb. 1, the Nuggets rank fifth in the percentage of possessions that come
in transition, per Cleaning The Glass. In that same stretch, they are fourth in
scoring efficiency off live rebounds, according to Inpredictable.
Jokic has seven triple-doubles in his past 15 games with some truly preposterous
stat lines. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scores on automatic and has imbued the young
Oklahoma City Thunder with bravado beyond their years. Luka Doncic is
ridiculous, and has time to keep pushing the revamped Dallas Mavericks up the
packed West standings. Giannis Antetokounmpo hasn't gone anywhere. Jayson Tatum
would fall below those four on my personal MVP ballot, but he is the best player
on the best team -- and that merits attention. Several other candidates deserve
a deep look.
EDITOR'S PICKS
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2 Related
But the award is, again, Jokic's to lose. He is the world's best player -- the
reason Denver should still be regarded as the favorite in the West despite
sitting at No. 3 behind the Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Nuggets are not overwhelming favorites, though. The West is stronger than
last season. Every matchup is perilous. Denver's young bench has been up and
down, though that often flips when coach Michael Malone staggers multiple
starters alongside key backups.
The West still goes through Murray and Jokic.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. TYRESE HALIBURTON, SCREENER?
Give me more of this!
The Haliburton-Buddy Hield pick-and-roll was a mainstay of Indiana's scoring
machine before the Pacers flipped Hield to the Philadelphia 76ers. The Pacers
were cagey springing it out of almost nowhere so defenses could not prepare to
switch it. Hield would slip picks at full blast, flaring for 3s.
With Hield gone -- and Indiana feeling the absence of his shooting -- the Pacers
would be smart to dial up Haliburton's usage as a screener a bit, both on and
off the ball. Haliburton is an elite shooter on the move with a knack for
relocating. That kind of player setting screens causes havoc; defenses stay
attached to them in fear of conceding any space, and that frees up cutters and
drivers -- including Andrew Nembhard above.
Look how fast that play unfolds. Nembhard and Haliburton exchange three passes
before Haliburton zooms toward Nembhard. Haliburton fakes a screen, ducks under
Nembhard's man and beelines toward half court. The defenders have no idea what
to do.
Haliburton has set 78 on-ball screens and 75 off-ball picks this season, per
Second Spectrum -- about three combined per game. The Pacers could jack that up
to around 10, enough to impact the game without siphoning too much ballhandling
from Haliburton.
Haliburton and Pascal Siakam have played only 14 games together -- several with
Haliburton under a minutes restriction. All three of Siakam, Nembhard and Myles
Turner are shooting slightly below average from deep. It will take time for
Indiana to suss out spacing and touches.
But the early results are encouraging. The Pacers are plus-four per 100
possessions in 337 minutes with Haliburton and Siakam on the floor. Siakam has
brought rangy, multi-positional defense and new elements to the Pacers' offense:
midrange scoring, passing from the post and the ability to work either end of a
pick-and-roll with Haliburton.
Indiana has fallen out of the national discourse a bit since the in-season
tournament, but it still has a chance at the No. 5 or 6 spot in the East -- and
the talent to threaten an upset. Ask the Milwaukee Bucks.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3. GRADEY DICK, ON THE MOVE
Dick has cracked double figures in four of his past seven games -- including
three 18-point games -- despite averaging only about 20 minutes as a reserve.
The Toronto Raptors have been starving for a movement shooter, and Dick roves in
unpredictable patterns. He's tall and can speed up his release to launch in
tight confines.
He has nifty chemistry with Kelly Olynyk:
Toronto runs that set a lot: Dick screening for the Raptors' lead ball handler
-- Scottie Barnes here -- and then rocketing off a flare screen from Olynyk. The
first screen puts defenses in a bind. Switching usually results in a weaker
defender taking Barnes. Dick's defender lingering to help on Barnes risks
leaving Dick open for a triple.
Part two -- Olynyk's screen -- might create even more bad choices, since it
pairs two players of different sizes who can both hit quick-trigger 3s. Switch,
and Olynyk plows his way to the basket. Trapping Dick opens a runway for Olynyk,
and Dick can already make those passes.
These actions only work in the long haul if the offensive team has counters
depending on the defense response.
This time, the Pacers stay closer to Dick and stick to Olynyk instead of
trapping. Dick reads all of that, and flies to the rim.
Dick looks like a capable role player. Opponents will hunt him on defense, and
some matchups will be too much for him. But Dick moves his feet and has good
anticipation.
The Raptors probably didn't get quite as much as they hoped in the combined
Siakam and OG Anunoby deals, but they may have ended up with about 80% or 90% of
what they would have received had they moved a year earlier. Giving last
season's team a shot was worth that gap in trade return.
Flipping a late 2024 first-round pick -- one they received from the Pacers for
Siakam -- for Olynyk and Ochai Agbaji was a nice flier, and very on brand for a
franchise that seems to want to reboot and remain at least semi-competitive at
the same time.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4. SOME STAGGERING ROTATIONS IN DETROIT
Well, at least the Pistons are normal-bad now instead of historically bad --
despite being robbed by an egregious referee error against the New York Knicks
on Monday. They are 7-20 since losing 28 straight games. Tune out all the noise
about losing streaks, awful calls, Monty Williams' coaching, Detroit's wayward
path since Tom Gores purchased the team -- it's hard, I know -- and the most
important thing happening right now is Cade Cunningham catching a rhythm.
In his past 11 games, Cunningham has averaged 21.5 points, 7.3 assists, and 4.6
rebounds on solid shooting -- 50% overall and 45% on 3s. For the season, he's up
to 46% overall and 36% on 3s -- respectable, considering Detroit still surrounds
Cunningham with way below-average spacing.
Critics went out on Cunningham way too early. This is basically his second
season -- he played 12 games last year -- and he has had to adapt as a lead
playmaker in about the worst context possible. Critics were right that
Cunningham needs to shoot better from everywhere -- his finishing at the rim is
more dire than his so-so 3-pointer -- and get to the line more, but he deserved
more patience ironing out those things.
Maybe that is happening now. Maybe this is a blip and a backslide is coming.
Sustaining top-level play is the final frontier. Cunningham is unlikely to
become an annual first- or second-team All-NBA superstar, but I'd still bet on
his combination of size and playmaking. This version of Cunningham is headed
toward multiple All-Star appearances.
Where that leaves the scattershot Jaden Ivey is unclear, but there's one place I
know I'd love to see him: running second units when Cunningham rests. Detroit's
current five-man bench mob is hopeless. Williams should stagger minutes so Ivey
helms those groups.
There is some (strained) logic to maximizing the shared Cunningham-Ivey minutes;
Detroit envisioned them as its backcourt of the future, and wants to see how
they mesh. But the Pistons can do that and still let Ivey cook with reserve
groups.
Ivey is hunting spots to attack off the ball alongside Cunningham, but the fit
is wonky. Defenders sag away from Ivey even though he's up to 37% on 3s. He's a
minus on defense, though improving.
Ivey needs time and space to fly. He is a ball of unused energy that seems to
shoot out in all directions when Cunningham kicks him the ball. Give him more
reps at the top of the offense.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. BEWARE OF JALEN SUGGS WHEN PASSING ACROSS THE COURT
Look both ways before trying any crosscourt pass when Suggs is around, because
... watch out!
Yoink! That is an NBA pick-six from a guy who was once an elite football player.
Suggs averages 1.4 steals while almost never gambling his way out of position.
And even when he bets and loses, he's nimble enough changing directions -- and
dangerous enough as a rearview shot-blocker -- to stay engaged:
Suggs is one of the league's most well-rounded defensive guards, with the speed
to chase waterbug point guards and the heft to jostle with big wings. He is a
cinder block with arms and very fast feet. The Magic's defense is built to last;
they have held steady at No. 5 in points allowed per possession. They are
physical, versatile, ultracompetitive, protective of the glass.
Suggs is also up to 39% on 3s after hitting just 32.7% last season and barely
making any as a rookie. He has already made more 3s this season (113) than the
108 he hit combined in his first two. He's taking more -- 7.1 per 36 minutes, up
from 5.8 last season. Suggs is even 28-of-73 (38%) on off-the-bounce 3s, already
surpassing his career high in makes.
Marcus Smart -- a common Suggs comp -- has never hit better than 36.4% on 3s in
any season and has only exceeded Suggs's current attempt rate twice.
Defenses will remain skeptical until Suggs proves it over a larger sample; they
still ignore him on the perimeter to clog the lane on Paolo Banchero and Franz
Wagner. That will change if Suggs keeps punishing them.
The Magic are 29th in 3-point attempts and 25th in 3-point shooting percentage.
Their shooting deficit is the main reason they are on pace to finish 20th or
worse in offensive efficiency for the 12th straight season -- a baffling streak
of punchlessness that has become one of my favorite oddities.
One of the biggest crossroads facing any team is Orlando's appetite to acquire a
star guard who can both shoot and run some portion of the offense. Markelle
Fultz doesn't appear to be happening. Anthony Black is barely 20, far away as a
shooter. (He is a fantastic defender.) Cole Anthony appears to be in the right
place as a sixth man. Gary Harris' contract expires after this season. Jett
Howard has played 49 NBA minutes.
Suggs might end up checking the shooting box, but he has not grown as much as an
orchestrator. He runs only 12 pick-and-rolls per 100 possessions, very low for a
starting guard. The Magic have scored only 0.85 points per possession directly
out of those plays -- 172nd out of 196 guys who have run at least 100
pick-and-rolls, per Second Spectrum.
But Orlando runs a lot of offense through Banchero and Wagner, and they probably
would like to keep it that way. Plopping, say, Trae Young into this mix amounts
to an overhaul. Is there an in-between solution -- a starting-level guard who
can shoot, defend, pass and soak up some offense but not so much as to reorient
everything? That's a tough needle to thread.
If the Magic can't find that player, is the only solution to wait and hope?
The Magic are loaded with cap space and trade assets. They will be fascinating
to monitor this summer and going forward. Suggs fits no matter what direction
they take.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6. BAM ADEBAYO'S LEFT HAND
Uh-oh. Like clockwork, here come the Miami Heat. The Heat are 9-3 in their past
12 games despite injuries to ... just about everyone. They are eighth in the
East with a cake remaining schedule. They are deep enough that they might face
tough decisions about which three players should start -- among Tyler Herro,
Terry Rozier, Caleb Martin, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Duncan Robinson -- around Jimmy
Butler and Adebayo. Exactly zero teams would be excited to face Miami in the
playoffs.
Adebayo is tireless. His defense never waivers, and his versatility gives Miami
access to all kinds of schemes -- whatever it takes to gut through one game.
Adebayo has stepped up his offense after a mini-slump in late January, and the
Heat have needed every point. Miami is 20th in points per possession overall,
and a blah 17th even during this 9-3 stretch. Its defense will always be there.
The Heat's ability to scrounge enough points will determine their ceiling.
Adebayo has worked hard on finishing lefty, and that work is starting to pay
off.
Adebayo is aggressive hunting deep post position against smaller players, and
has developed a nice touch on that lefty hook.
But this ... this was a "whoa" moment:
(Check out Kevin Love's reaction on the bench.)
Adebayo dusts Domantas Sabonis going baseline, drifts behind the backboard and
reaches out that left hand for a soft running floater. Gorgeous.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7. THE MANY THEORIES OF WHAT HAPPENED TO JORDAN POOLE
There isn't much point in belaboring how bad Poole has been with the Washington
Wizards. Every game seems to bring a new meme. This is something beyond a normal
single-season decline. The Wizards and Poole need to find the root causes and
figure out how to rehabilitate Poole's game (and his contract).
Everyone will point to the punch as the pivot point when Poole shifted from a
player who helped the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals to whatever this
is -- and that was a traumatic moment. But every time this happens, my memory
flashes back to a Warriors game in Miami about a month after the punch:
That palming violation capped a gruesome three-minute stretch for Poole that
began literally the second he entered the game with Tyus Jones inbounding from
the baseline. Jones passed to Poole, who caught the ball with his foot on the
sideline. No time had elapsed, and Poole had already committed a turnover. In
the next two minutes, he missed a jitterbug off-the-bounce 3 -- the crowd
groaning as Poole bobbed and weaved with the ball -- and air-balled an open
corner triple. Then came this carrying call.
The day the NBA decided to crack down on carrying early last season, referees
whistled Poole for three violations in Golden State's Nov. 1 loss to the Heat.
Golden State coach Steve Kerr defended Poole, arguing that lots of players
technically carry the ball.
Poole's handle had always been funky -- his hands drifting to the underside of
the ball as he dangles it in midair before bolting into a crossover. Sometimes
the violations are obvious -- as in the above call. Sometimes they are blurrier;
Poole still uses lots of the same moves, and referees don't appear to be as
hawkish enforcing the palming rule this season.
But I've always wondered how much becoming the poster player for the carrying
crackdown got into Poole's head.
Poole has three years and $95 million remaining on his contract after this
season. It is in the running for "worst" contract in the NBA. Washington
acquired a top-20 protected 2030 first-round pick from Golden State for
absorbing Poole in exchange for Chris Paul (plus a second-round pick and cash),
so Poole's deal was already treated as a net negative last summer.
It is deeper underwater now. Here's hoping Poole finds himself again, because
when he's right, he's a dynamic player with underrated quick-twitch passing
vision. Maybe Poole's strong 34-point game Thursday against the Lakers heralds a
rebound.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. TWO DELIGHTFUL CLEVELAND CAVALIERS RITUALS
One of the joys of investing everything in one league or one team is getting to
know and love every player's little quirks. As a (lapsed) die-hard New York Mets
fan, I can still visualize Mike Piazza's underhanded half-swings as he geared up
for the next pitch and the way John Olerud would palm the face of his batting
helmet to remove it between pitches.
In that vein, I love that Isaac Okoro is still trying to make this "X" gesture
happen after mano-a-mano stops:
I unironically love this. It's something a pro wrestler would do before
executing his finishing move.
Okoro can gesticulate however he likes, because his defense exceeds the hype.
Okoro is among the very best one-on-one defenders in the league. If he were
starting and playing more he would have a strong case for one of the
All-Defensive teams.
As is, Okoro still guards the best opposing perimeter player. He is shooting a
career-best 39% from deep, and letting fly with more confidence. Okoro still
passes up some open looks, but he's taking more of the wide-open ones and he's
explosive enough to roast soft closeouts on less-open potential 3s. There is a
healthier balance to his shoot-or-drive choices. Okoro remains a blur in
transition.
This Okoro is reliable enough to close games if the score and matchups dictate
it. It's still a bad idea to play him long stretches alongside both Evan Mobley
and Jarrett Allen, but Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff has been sitting one of those
bigs late in close games. That opens the door to some crunch-time Okoro minutes.
(Caris LeVert and Max Strus factor into that equation, too.)
If Cleveland ever draws an elite wing player in a postseason matchup -- say,
Tatum or Butler -- it will need to figure out how to divvy up that defensive
assignment. That is a tough question for a team built around two bigs and two
small guards.
Okoro might be their best answer, though he's a tad undersized at 6-foot-5. The
Cavs usually give Strus first dibs; he's smart and rugged, but guarding an apex
wing full time is a tough ask. The Cavs can invert matchups so Mobley guards
those wings -- with Strus sliding to a less-threatening power forward -- but
that gets tricker if Bickerstaff staggers Mobley and Allen.
The Cavs are really good, and given health issues with the New York Knicks and
Philadelphia 76ers -- and the Milwaukee Bucks' up-and-down play -- the East is a
little more open than expected after Boston. (The Bucks are trending the right
way.)
Another niche Cavs eccentricity: the high leg kicks Georges Niang busts out upon
entering games for the first time. (Watch him in the left corner during this
inbounds play):
Look at that technique! This man could fit in a 1980s aerobics video.
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to build new products and services based on user interactions, the type of
audience, etc. This specific purpose does not include the development or
improvement of user profiles and identifiers.
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* USE LIMITED DATA TO SELECT CONTENT 110 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE
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Content presented to you on this service can be based on limited data, such
as the website or app you are using, your non-precise location, your device
type, or which content you are (or have been) interacting with (for example,
to limit the number of times a video or an article is presented to you).
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SPECIAL PURPOSES & FEATURES
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* ENSURE SECURITY, PREVENT AND DETECT FRAUD, AND FIX ERRORS 488 PARTNERS CAN
USE THIS PURPOSE
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Your data can be used to monitor for and prevent unusual and possibly
fraudulent activity (for example, regarding advertising, ad clicks by bots),
and ensure systems and processes work properly and securely. It can also be
used to correct any problems you, the publisher or the advertiser may
encounter in the delivery of content and ads and in your interaction with
them.
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* DELIVER AND PRESENT ADVERTISING AND CONTENT 476 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE
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Certain information (like an IP address or device capabilities) is used to
ensure the technical compatibility of the content or advertising, and to
facilitate the transmission of the content or ad to your device.
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* MATCH AND COMBINE DATA FROM OTHER DATA SOURCES 341 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS
PURPOSE
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Information about your activity on this service may be matched and combined
with other information relating to you and originating from various sources
(for instance your activity on a separate online service, your use of a
loyalty card in-store, or your answers to a survey), in support of the
purposes explained in this notice.
* LINK DIFFERENT DEVICES 316 PARTNERS CAN USE THIS PURPOSE
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In support of the purposes explained in this notice, your device might be
considered as likely linked to other devices that belong to you or your
household (for instance because you are logged in to the same service on both
your phone and your computer, or because you may use the same Internet
connection on both devices).
* IDENTIFY DEVICES BASED ON INFORMATION TRANSMITTED AUTOMATICALLY 460 PARTNERS
CAN USE THIS PURPOSE
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Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it
automatically sends when accessing the Internet (for instance, the IP address
of your Internet connection or the type of browser you are using) in support
of the purposes exposed in this notice.
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