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 * What Trump’s Second Term Means for Energy Stocks

Meet Eric Fry


WHAT TRUMP’S SECOND TERM MEANS FOR ENERGY STOCKS

And how we’re playing it this time…

By Eric Fry, Editor, Fry's Investment Report Nov 14, 2024, 4:31 pm EST November
14, 2024


Source: FreezeFrames / Shutterstock.com

When Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential race, commodity
investors cheered.

Shares of the S&P 500 rose 1% the morning after the election, driven by a 1.9%
rise in energy stocks and a 2.3% jump in basic materials, as measured by iShares
sector indices.

The jump in energy stocks was partly due to Trump’s stance on energy.

“The shale energy revolution will unleash massive wealth for America,” Trump
told audience members in Pittsburgh during his 2016 campaign. “And we will end
the war on coal and the war on miners.”



And markets took Trump for his word.

Within a month of his election victory, the president-elect oversaw another 8.6%
surge in the iShares U.S. Energy ETF (IYE) as speculators salivated over the
idea of greater fossil fuel supplies. 

But what came next was disastrous for energy investors and their companies.

Over the two years following Trump’s inauguration in 2017, shares of energy
firms plummeted 17.3%. They would continue sliding through the remainder of his
presidency.

With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at how energy stocks fared under
Trump’s first term… consider the potential impact of a “Trump 2.0” presidency on
the sector… and dig up some of the best ways to play it.


CHEAP GAS, HIGH COST

Following the energy sector’s struggling performance through 2019, the U.S.
Energy Information Agency (EIA) announced…

> Increases in U.S. petroleum production put downward pressure on crude oil
> prices…
> 
> In addition, the production increases likely limited the effect on prices from
> the attack on Saudi Arabia, production cut announcements from [OPEC], and U.S.
> sanctions on Iran and Venezuela that limited crude oil exports from those
> countries.



Essentially, America’s shale revolution deepened an already-growing glut of U.S.
supply.

Oil production volumes increased 24%, depressing domestic prices and forcing
dozens of major producers out of business. At least five dozen major energy
firms went bankrupt over that period, with the top five of them wiping out $11
billion of capital.

American consumers got cheap gas, but oil drillers paid a steep price.

However, that price crash benefited some energy companies.

Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG) pivoted toward liquifying and exporting the growing
amounts of cheap gas available. By 2019, the firm had seen a 50% rise in share
price. Petroleum refining firm CVR Energy Inc. (CVI) did even better, notching a
69% increase. Fellow refiners Valero Energy Corp. (VLO), Marathon Petroleum
Corp. (MPC),and ConocoPhillips (COP) all saw double-digit gains. 



These energy firms thrived because their revenues are tied to the volumes of
hydrocarbons they handle, not the price. The cheaper the oil and gas America
pumped from the ground, the more money these “downstream” companies printed
every quarter.

Pipeline firms succeeded by acting like toll roads, taking the same fee for
every “car” (i.e., cubic foot of gas) regardless of the vehicle’s value.
Refiners benefited from cheaper feedstocks. And exporters saw a bonanza as the
world snapped up America’s low-cost fuels.

Exploration and production companies (“upstream” energy companies), on the other
hand, saw the value of their reserves drop for every decline in energy prices.

We see a similar story playing out in the energy sector under a Trump 2.0
presidency.


A SECOND ROUND

In the days following Trump’s 2024 presidential election, shares of the S&P 500
rose 2.5%, while energy stocks jumped 3.5%. Much like eight years ago, investors
today are wholeheartedly expecting cuts in “green” regulation and other Biden
administration limits to energy production. 



However, we’re largely ignoring American upstream oil and gas producers at this
stage.

Though some upstream companies have risen as much as 20% since the election, we
believe the real long-term gainers will be those that benefit even if prices
collapse again.

Of course, today’s world looks vastly different from 2016.

The promise of a 10% to 20% baseline tariff could trigger retaliatory measures,
making American energy exports uncompetitive. Renewable energy is now
price-competitive with most U.S.-produced coal, making a resurgence in the
latter industry even less likely than before. And major oil-producing nations
like Russia and Saudi Arabia are facing greater (potentially existential)
threats that often make OPEC leaders unpredictable.

But if things go as we expect, we believe holding on to a diversified group of
volume-sensitive energy firms remains the best way to play a Trump 2.0
presidency.

Another important way to play a Trump presidency – no matter what broader
markets do – is through cash.

The reality is that real, hold-in-your-hand cash is of the utmost importance
right now.

InvestorPlace analyst Louis Navellier has developed a stock grading system to
identify stocks ripe for short-term gains, which can then be treated like
income.



For example, an initial $7,500 investment in past recommendations paid out a
$3,375 windfall in a one-month timeframe…  $4,650 in three months…  $11,925 in
five months…  and $16,875 in 11 months…

And his Quantum Cash Project is designed to identify payout opportunities
regardless of economic uncertainty, persistent risks of inflation, or any market
condition.

In his recent presentation, Louis introduces this income-generating approach
that he projects will identify at least $60,000 in potential income
opportunities over the next 12 months.

The system requires no special skills, employs no risky leverage, and can
generate income whether you’re working or retired.

To learn more about this tested strategy and how it works, click here to watch
Louis’s special presentation.

Regards,

Thomas Yeung

Markets Analyst, InvestorPlace



Submit



Eric Fry Editor, Smart Money


MEET ERIC FRY

By looking for big-picture trends that drive huge, multiyear moves in entire
sectors of the market, Eric Fry exploits moneymaking opportunities regular Wall
Streeters miss.

Learn more about Eric

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Article printed from InvestorPlace Media,
https://investorplace.com/smartmoney/2024/11/trumps-second-term-energy-stocks/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC


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