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R. Saravanan
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R. Saravanan
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BOOK



The Climate Demon: Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction

 Cambridge University Press

Winner of the 2023 Louis J. Battan Author's Award of the American Meteorological
Society: "a thoughtful and approachable guide to the history, philosophy, and
process of climate modeling – which informs an important discussion of science's
role in policymaking."

Endorsements
Book Structure
Book Resources

Climate predictions – and the computer models behind them – play a key role in
shaping public opinion and our response to the climate crisis. The 2021 Nobel
Prize in Physics recognized this by honoring climate scientist Suki Manabe for
his pioneering contributions to the physical modelling of Earth's climate. The
Climate Demon provides an "under the hood" look at the models built by Manabe
and other scientists that are used to predict the future of our climate. 

Written by an experienced climate scientist, but aimed at the general reader,
the book uses simple language to describe the scientific and philosophical
foundations of climate models. It explains how to interpret and use the
predictions they provide, and argues that we need to trust the models despite
their uncertainties. The book cautions that deterministic thinking can mislead
us when assessing the risks of climate change, and that we should take climate
predictions seriously, but not literally.


Where to buy:

You can preview the book on Google Books and purchase the e-book version on
Google Play or the Kindle version on Amazon. 

If you are in the UK/Europe, you can order a printed copy from Blackwells (UK),
Amazon (UK), and other book stores; In the US, you can order it from Amazon (US)
and other bookstores. You can also order it from the  Cambridge University Press
Bookshop.

 * Covers the fascinating and intertwined history of digital computers and
   climate models from the mid 20th century to the present  – from the weather
   forecast made by ENIAC, the first digital computer, to climate projections
   that will soon run on massive Exascale supercomputers.

 * Provides a frank assessment of the strengths and limitations of climate
   models, and advice on how best to interpret and use climate predictions for
   impact and risk assessment.

 * Title refers to a recurring philosophical theme in the book, the notion of a
   Climate Demon – a metaphor for a model that accurately calculates the
   trajectory of future climate. It is the climate analog of the philosophical
   concept known as Laplace’s Demon.

 * Cover photo shows a monarch butterfly — a metaphor for uncertainty in
   prediction that faces an uncertain climate future.


ENDORSEMENTS

“A wide-ranging guided tour of the modern science of climate prediction, told by
a leading expert without jargon or mathematics, and illuminated by history,
philosophy, technology, and even literature.”

RICHARD C.J. SOMERVILLE, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of
California, San Diego


“I thoroughly recommend this book if you want to understand the science behind
these all-important [climate] models.”

TIM PALMER, University of Oxford


“If you wish to correctly interpret climate modeling results, read The Climate
Demon. Saravanan’s brilliant and humorous book helps both scientists and the
general public objectively understand strengths and limitations of climate
predictions.”

SAMUEL SHEN, San Diego State University


“… a first rate, well-researched summary and analysis of how predictions in
climate science work ... a must read for natural and social scientists from all
walks of life, as well as policymakers and managers.”

GERALD R. NORTH, Texas A&M University

Other aspects of the book liked by readers:

 * * discussion of the different kinds of models, which is not widely
     appreciated
   
   * explains in detail how models are wrong but still useful
   
   * description of the immense complexity and computational requirements of
     climate models (it takes a lot more than a laptop!) 
   
   * the notion that we are all steeped in determinism, but shouldn't be



BOOK STRUCTURE

The first part of the book (The Past) features the stories of computing pioneer
John von Neumann at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, who helped
make the first digital weather forecast, meteorologist Ed Lorenz, who discovered
the Butterfly Effect, scientist and women’s rights pioneer Eunice Foote, who
connected carbon dioxide with heating, climate scientist (and 2021 Nobel
Laureate) Suki Manabe, who used computers to model the Greenhouse Effect,
planetary scientist Jim Hansen, who raised public awareness of the problem of
global warming, and atmospheric chemist Susan Solomon, who deciphered the
mysteries of the Ozone Hole. (Punxsutawney Phil, the prognosticating groundhog,
makes a cameo appearance.)


The second part (The Present) discusses the current challenges faced by climate
prediction, such as the inexorable increase in model complexity, “tuning” of
models to compensate for errors, and the need for model diversity. The
distinction between well-known unknowns and poorly known unknowns, and the
pitfalls of translating climate predictions for the general public, are also
discussed.


The third part (The Future) describes trends in climate prediction driven by
recent scientific developments such as geoengineering, the demise of Moore’s Law
of ever faster chips, and the advent of machine learning. The book concludes
with a discussion of philosophical and practical issues in assessing the impacts
and risks of climate change.


A central theme of the book is that climate models are metaphors of reality –
their predictions should be taken seriously, but not literally. There is deep
uncertainty regarding predictions of extreme climate change scenarios, but this
uncertainty is by no means a reason for inaction. If anything, the uncertainty
adds urgency to the need to rapidly eliminate carbon emissions. The predictions
we have now are confident enough for us to justify strong action, but uncertain
enough for us not to panic over doomsday scenarios.


BOOK RESOURCES

 * Publisher website

 * Table of Contents

 * Expanded Table of Contents

 * Expanded References

 * Figures

 * Errata (typos, missing citations, references etc.)

Samples from the book

 * Princeton Alumni Weekly features an excerpt from Chapter 1

 * Preface etc. (Front matter – PDF from publisher)

 * Introduction (Sample chapter – PDF from publisher)

 * Chapter 1 – Deducing Weather: The Dawn of Computing (Sample PDF from
   publisher)


Additional resources

 * FANAQ (Frequently And Never Asked Questions)

 * Visuals (cartoons, memes, ...)

Related articles/media

 * The Physics of Climate Prediction – new book blog post at 1584, the Cambridge
   Blog

 * On the Complications of Simplified Models. Talk at Understanding and Modeling
   the Earth's Climate, a symposium in honor of Isaac Held, October 2018,
   Princeton, New Jersey. Early exploration of some of the ideas in Chapters 8,
   11, 12, 13, and 15: "simplicity vs. complexity", Anna Karenina Principle,
   Hansen Paradox, Rumsfeld Matrix, and "seriously vs. literally"

 * Is the weather actually becoming more extreme? A 5-minute TED-Ed animated
   short which illustrates some of the concepts in Chapters 2 and 7, such as
   initial conditions versus boundary conditions for prediction.

Link to TED-Ed lesson




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