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$

BTC $91,358 +0.67% ETH $3,125 +0.28% BNB $618 -1.17% SOL $241 -1.21% XRP $1.11
-3.95% TON $5.60 +1.90%
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Marcel Pechman
9 hours ago


BITCOIN PRICE METRICS POINT TO MORE UPSIDE DESPITE $92K ACTING AS RESISTANCE 

Data hints that new all-time highs are on the way, even if Bitcoin struggles to
gain above $92,000. 

3726 Total views
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Market Analysis
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Bitcoin BTC $91,295 has been trading within a narrow 7% range since Nov. 12,
signaling a period of consolidation around $91,000. Still, derivatives indicate
that professional traders remain confident in the bull market. Additionally,
multiple attempts to break above the $92,000 level suggest strong buying demand
beyond MicroStrategy’s multiple BTC acquisitions.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas

The BTC options delta skew has dropped to its lowest level in four months,
indicating the market is pricing a discount for put (sell) options. Levels below
-6% suggest bullish sentiment and reflect confidence in the $87,000 support
level, particularly from whales and arbitrage desks.

While such data suggests optimism, it does not guarantee that investors are
confident the bull market will continue. It is crucial to analyze the factors
driving recent momentum. For example, if analysts view MicroStrategy as the
primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s surge to a new all-time high, signs should be
visible in BTC futures and margin markets.


IS MICROSTRATEGY THE SOLE DRIVER BEHIND BITCOIN’S BULL RUN?

The speculation that a few entities are responsible for the buying activity
above $87,000 gained traction after MicroStrategy revealed an additional
purchase of 51,780 BTC on Nov. 18. According to an SEC filing, the company now
holds over $29 billion in Bitcoin and is actively pursuing a plan to raise $21
billion through the issuance and sale of company shares.


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By contrast, investors believe that Bitcoin has a greater chance of continued
price appreciation if spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) net inflows show signs
of early adoption, including increased exposure from pension funds and large
hedge fund managers. However, the latest data from Nov. 14 and 15 revealed $771
million in net ETF outflows as investors decided to take profits following the
recent rally.

To understand how professional traders are positioned, it’s essential to analyze
Bitcoin futures and margin markets. For example, sustained demand for leveraged
BTC futures indicates bullish sentiment, while increased use of price hedging
suggests whales and arbitrage desks lack confidence in the current price
momentum.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin two-month futures premium (basis rate) surged to 17% on Nov. 18, far
exceeding the 5%–10% neutral threshold. This level of optimism was last observed
almost eight months ago, in late March, when Bitcoin successfully defended the
$64,000 level after two weeks of downward pressure.

To further assess traders’ sentiment, it’s essential to analyze BTC margin
markets. Unlike derivatives contracts, which always require a buyer and a
seller, margin markets allow traders to borrow stablecoins to buy spot Bitcoin.
Similarly, bearish traders can borrow BTC to create short positions, betting on
a price decline.

Related: ‘I put most of my wealth into Bitcoin, so I am fully committed’ — RFK
Jr.

Bitcoin margin long-to-short ratio at OKX. Source: OKX

Currently, the Bitcoin long-to-short margin ratio at OKX is 14 times in favor of
longs (buyers). Historically, periods of excessive confidence have driven the
indicator above 40 times, while levels below 5 times favoring longs are
generally considered bearish.

Ultimately, Bitcoin derivatives and margin markets signal strong bullish
momentum, regardless of the concentration of buy-side activity driven by
MicroStrategy. The lack of a significant impact from the retest of the $88,700
level on Nov. 17 further suggests that investors are not ready to exit at the
first negative price swing.

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This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and
should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and
opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or
represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.


 * #Bitcoin
 * #Cryptocurrencies
 * #Bitcoin Price
 * #Markets
 * #Leverage
 * #Futures
 * #Market Analysis
 * #Bitcoin Options
 * #MicroStrategy
 * #OKX
 * #ETF
 * #Michael Saylor


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