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HUNGARY'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY FACES BUMPY ROAD IN 2024, OECD SAYS
March 06, 2024 at 03:30 am EST
Share
BUDAPEST, March 6 (Reuters) - Hungary's economy is projected to grow by 2.4%
this year, weaker than the government forecast, and the outlook is subject to
significant risks, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD) said on Wednesday.
The Hungarian economy has only barely started to recover from a recession last
year due to Europe's highest inflation that peaked above 25%, weak domestic and
export demand and the European Union's highest benchmark rate that still stands
at 9% after massive rate cuts by the central bank.
Headline inflation has slowed sharply to an annual 3.8% in January but core
inflation was still at 6.1%.
The OECD said the economy could face a bumpy recovery.
"Beyond uncertainty related to inflation and energy prices, rising business
failures may cause an increase in non-performing loans, which would further
reduce credit distribution and weigh on economic activity," it said in its fresh
economic survey.
"Due to slow growth in Hungary's main trading partners including Germany,
exports are expected to pick up only progressively in 2024 and 2025."
It added that incomplete or late delivery of EU funds that are subject to the
implementation of rule-of-law reforms in Hungary was another key risk for
investor confidence.
Economists polled by Reuters last month projected GDP growth at 2.7% this year,
a far cry from Prime Minister Viktor Orban's expectation for 3% to 4% expansion,
though broadly in line with the OECD's fresh projection.
Orban, who campaigns for European parliament elections due in June, said on
Monday that his government would aim to cut the budget deficit below the EU's
threshold of 3% of gross domestic product only by 2026, after the gap ballooned
to 6.5-6.7% of GDP last year.
The OECD said fiscal consolidation was needed "to align fiscal policy with
monetary policy efforts to curb inflation, strengthen public debt
sustainability, and recreate fiscal space to finance ageing-related expenditures
and the green transition."
It said the government should restructure its costly energy price cap system,
which the European Commission has also criticised, and opt for targeted cash
transfers to vulnerable households instead.
It also said uncertainties regarding commodity prices, core inflation, the
forint's exchange rate, and the anchoring of inflation expectations called for a
"gradual and measured continuation of monetary easing."
"The Central Bank will need to remain vigilant and stand ready to keep monetary
policy tighter for longer if upside inflation risks materialise," it said.
"Fully anchoring inflation expectations, especially in the short term, is key to
avoid a wage-price spiral and ensure that core inflation will recede."
(Reporting by Krisztina Than Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
Share
© Reuters - 2024
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-5.18%
DELL TECHNOLOGIES INC.
-5.67%
ORACLE CORPORATION
-6.67%
SUPER MICRO COMPUTER, INC.
-8.20%
MODERNA, INC.
-9.07%
Created with Highcharts 9.3.3Technology TechnologyConsumer Cyclicals Consumer
CyclicalsConsumer Non-CyclicalsConsumer … Consumer Non-CyclicalsConsumer
…Healthcare HealthcareFinancials FinancialsEnergyEne… EnergyEne…Basic
MaterialsBasic Materi… Basic MaterialsBasic Materi…Industrials
IndustrialsUtilities UtilitiesReal Estate Real Estate
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Rankings -- North America --DOW JONESMexico IPCNasdaq 100Nasdaq CompositeRussell
2000Toronto TSXUS 500 -- Europe --AEXAEX All SharesAMXASCXASEATXBEL 20BEL All
SharesBEL MidBel SmallCAC 40CAC Large 60CAC Mid & SmallCAC Mid 60CAC Next 20CAC
SmallDAXEuro Stoxx 50Finland OMXH 25FTSE 100FTSE-MIBIBEX 35MDAXOMX Copenhagen
20OMX Nordic 40OMX Oslo 20OMX Stockholm PIPEA (Liste Indicative)PEA PMEPolska
100PSI 20S&P United KingdomSBF 120SDAXSMISRD FranceSRD Long OnlyStoxx Europe
600Stoxx Europe 600 trStoxx Italy 20Stoxx Italy 45Stoxx Italy TMISweden OMXS
30Swiss Market (Mid Cap) Total Return Index - CHFSwiss Market (SMI) Gross Total
Return Index - CHFSwiss Middle Companies Total Return Index - CHF TecDAXWIG
20 -- Asia, Pacific --ASX 200BIST 100Hang SengKOSPI CompositeMSCI Pacific ex
JapanNifty 100Nifty 50Nifty 500Nikkei 225Pacific 500SENSEX 30SET 50Shanghai
CompositeSingapore 100Solar Value ChainTaiwan TWSETokyo TOPIX -- South
America --CaracasIbovespaMSCI EM LATIN AMERICA -- Middle East --CASE
30Tadawul All Share TASIUAE 50 -- --Ireland ISEQ Overall IndexPEA PME
(Liste Indicative)
ALPHABET INC.
+5.59%
CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS, INC.
+3.28%
TESLA, INC.
+2.87%
T-MOBILE US, INC.
+2.03%
GILEAD SCIENCES, INC.
+1.93%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PDD HOLDINGS INC.
-5.29%
APPLOVIN CORPORATION
-6.27%
SUPER MICRO COMPUTER, INC.
-8.20%
MODERNA, INC.
-9.07%
MONGODB, INC.
-16.92%
Created with Highcharts 9.3.3Technology TechnologyConsumer CyclicalsConsume…
Consumer CyclicalsConsume…Consumer Non-CyclicalsConsumer N… Consumer
Non-CyclicalsConsumer N…Healthcare HealthcareBasic MaterialsBa… Basic
MaterialsBa…Industrials IndustrialsUtilitiesUti… UtilitiesUti…
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