www.ecb.europa.eu
Open in
urlscan Pro
80.90.16.91
Public Scan
Submitted URL: http://ecb.europa.eu/
Effective URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
Submission: On December 20 via manual from IL — Scanned from IL
Effective URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
Submission: On December 20 via manual from IL — Scanned from IL
Form analysis 2 forms found in the DOM
GET
<form role="search" method="get" style="width:100%;display:flex" onsubmit="return false">
<input type="text" name="search" class="addsearch" id="searchInput" maxlength="300" aria-label="Search" alt="Search" autocomplete="off">
<a href="#" id="searchButton">Search</a>
</form><form>
<div>
<label for="dropdownSuggestions">Sort by</label>
<div id="dropdownFilter" class="dropdown">
<span class="icon"></span>
<select onchange="ECB.slow.addSearchApi.filterDate(this.value)" id="searchFilterDate">
<option value="all" class="count-hits-all">ANYTIME </option>
<option value="month" class="count-hits-month">PAST MONTH </option>
<option value="year" class="count-hits-year">PAST YEAR </option>
</select>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<label for="dropdownSuggestions" class="space-top">Suggestions</label>
<div id="dropdownSuggestions" class="dropdown">
<span class="icon"></span>
<select onchange="ECB.slow.addSearchApi.initSearch(this.value)" id="searchSuggestion">
<option></option>
</select>
</div>
</div>
</form>Text Content
Skip to: Skip to navigation Skip to content Skip to footer
EN
БългарскиČeštinaDanskDeutschEλληνικάEnglishEspañolEesti
keelSuomiFrançaisGaeilgeHrvatskiMagyarItalianoLietuviųLatviešuMaltiNederlandsPolskiPortuguêsRomânăSlovenčinaSlovenščinaSvenska
Menu
* Monetary policy & markets
Monetary policy & markets
Our monetary policy strategy, the tools we use and the impact they have
Overview of monetary policy and markets
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quick links
* What is monetary policy?
* Strategy review
* Asset purchase programmes
Latest monetary policy press conference
12 December 2024
* Monetary policy & markets
* Introduction
* Introduction
* Benefits of price stability
* Scope of monetary policy
* Transmission mechanism
* Decisions, statements & accounts
* Monetary policy strategy
* Monetary policy strategy
* Strategy review
* Medium-term orientation
* Two per cent inflation target
* Economic, monetary and financial analysis
* Economic, monetary and financial analysis
* Economic analysis
* Monetary and financial analysis
* Instruments
* Instruments
* Open market operations
* Open market operations
* TLTROs
* Asset purchase programmes
* Asset purchase programmes
* Securities lending
* Pandemic emergency purchase programme
* Standing facilities
* Minimum reserves
* Minimum reserves
* Two-tier system
* International market operations
* International market operations
* Euro central bank liquidity lines
* Emergency liquidity assistance (ELA)
* Liquidity analysis
* Collateral
* Collateral
* Eligibility criteria and assessment
* Eligibility criteria and assessment
* Marketable assets
* Non-marketable assets
* List of eligible marketable assets
* List of eligible marketable assets
* User guide
* Mobilising collateral
* Mobilising collateral
* CCBM
* Eligible SSSs
* Eligible links
* Eligible triparty agents
* Risk mitigation
* Risk mitigation
* ECAF
* Risk control
* Haircut categories
* Valuation
* Loan-level requirements
* Loan-level requirements
* Data templates
* Eligibility requirements
* Frequently asked questions
* Contacts
* Structure of the euro area economy
* Structure of the euro area economy
* Economic policy
* Fiscal policies
* External trade
* Effective exchange rates
* Financial structure
* Financial markets
* Financial intermediaries
* Economic diversity
* Labour market
* Market contact groups
* Market contact groups
* Bond market (BMCG)
* Money market (MMCG)
* Debt Issuance Market Contact Group (DIMCG)
* ECB Operations managers group (ECB OMG)
* Foreign exchange (FXCG)
* Institutional Investor Dialogue (IID)
* Payments & financial stability
Payments & financial stability
Insights into our work on financial stability and payments and market
infrastructures
Overview of payments and financial stability
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quick links
* Digital euro
* Payments news & events
* TARGET professional use documents and links
Latest Financial Stability Review
16 May 2024
* Payments & financial stability
* Payments
* TARGET Services
* TARGET Services
* Shared features
* T2
* T2
* Facts and figures
* Governance
* T2S
* T2S
* Governance
* Facts and figures
* Pricing
* TIPS
* TIPS
* Cross-border payments
* Governance
* Facts and figures
* Onboarding
* ECMS
* TARGET professional use documents & links
* TARGET professional use documents & links
* Shared features documents & links
* T2 documents & links
* T2S documents & links
* TIPS documents & links
* ECMS documents & links
* Integration and innovation
* Integration and innovation
* Distributed ledger technologies
* Distributed ledger technologies
* Exploratory work
* Retail payments
* Retail payments
* Retail payments strategy
* ECB as a catalyst
* SEPA
* Instant payments
* Collateral management harmonisation
* Collateral management harmonisation
* Implementation
* FAQ
* Cyber resilience
* Cyber resilience
* Financial market infrastructures
* TIBER-EU
* Oversight
* Oversight
* Payment systems
* TARGET2-Securities
* Electronic payments
* Securities settlement systems and central counterparties
* Critical service providers
* Correspondent and custodian banks
* SecuRe Pay forum
* Reserve management services
* Reserve management services
* Key aspects
* Range of services
* Cash professionals
* Cash professionals
* Cash handling
* Cash handling
* Authentication devices
* Recirculation of banknotes
* Common detector interface specifications
* Banknote manufacturer accreditation
* Payment contact groups
* Payment contact groups
* Advisory groups on market infrastructures
* Euro Cyber Resilience Board
* Euro Retail Payments Board (ERPB)
* European Forum for Innovation in Payments (EFIP)
* Financial stability
* Introduction to financial stability
* Macroprudential Measures
* Financial stability contact groups
* Statistics
Statistics
Access to all ECB statistics and background information
Overview of ECB statistics
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quick links
* Main figures
* ECB Data Portal
* Statistical releases
THE ECB BLOG - Improved data: how climate change impacts banks
18 April 2024
* Statistics
* Frequently accessed
* Euro exchange rates
* Key ECB interest rates
* Euro short-term rate (€STR)
* Euro short-term rate (€STR)
* Interest rate benchmarks
* Interest rate benchmarks
* Working group on euro risk-free rates
* Inflation
* Euro area yield curves
* All statistics & background
* All key statistics
* All data services
* Data reporting & standards
* Data reporting & standards
* Governance and quality framework
* Co-operation and standards
* Banks’ data reporting
* AnaCredit
* AnaCredit
* AnaCredit Q&A
* Public consultations
* Banking industry dialogue on ESCB statistics and integrated reporting
* SDMX – statistical data exchange model
* INEXDA - granular data network
* The euro
The euro
All you need to know about our common currency
Overview of the euro
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quick links
* Cash professionals
* Banknote and coins statistics
* Euro exchange rates
Study on the payment attitudes of consumers in the euro area (SPACE) – 2024
19 December 2024
* The euro
* Digital euro
* Digital euro
* What it is
* What it is
* Digital euro and privacy
* How it works
* Why we need it
* Timeline and progress
* In-depth information
* In-depth information
* Governance and stakeholder engagement
* Technical documents and research
* Scheme rulebook
* Frequently asked questions
* Cash
* The Eurosystem cash strategy
* The Eurosystem cash strategy
* The role of cash
* Issuance and circulation
* Access to and acceptance of cash
* Frequently asked questions
* Banknotes
* Banknotes
* Future banknotes
* Future banknotes
* Redesign process
* Current banknotes
* Current banknotes
* Denominations
* Design elements
* Security features
* Anti-counterfeiting
* Banknote production and stocks
* Damaged and inked-stained banknotes
* Environment, health and safety
* Environment, health and safety
* Product environmental footprint
* Research and development
* Images and reproduction rules
* Information and training materials
* Coins
* Coins
* €2
* €1
* 50 cent
* 20 cent
* 10 cent
* 5 cent
* 2 cent
* 1 cent
* Common sides
* €2 commemorative coins
* Security features
* Collector coins
* Joining the euro area
* Joining the euro area
* Croatia (2023)
* Lithuania (2015)
* Latvia (2014)
* Estonia (2011)
* Slovakia (2009)
* Cyprus (2008)
* Malta (2008)
* Slovenia (2007)
* Initial changeover (2002)
* Exchanging national cash
* Exchanging national cash
* Austria
* Belgium
* Croatia
* Cyprus
* Estonia
* Finland
* France
* Germany
* Greece
* Ireland
* Italy
* Latvia
* Lithuania
* Luxembourg
* Malta
* The Netherlands
* Portugal
* Slovakia
* Slovenia
* Spain
* Visually impaired people
* Research
Research
In-depth studies and expert analyses covering diverse topics and fields
Overview of ECB research
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quick links
* Conferences & seminars
* Opportunities for researchers
Research Bulletin
* Research
* Economic research
* Economic research
* Research agenda
* Research agenda
* Monetary policy, strategy and implementation
* Fiscal policy and governance within EMU
* International macro and finance
* Real sector and microeconomic analysis
* Forecasting and business cycle analysis
* Macro-finance, systemic risk and macroprudential policy
* Financial institutions, microprudential policy, financial markets and
payments
* Opportunities for researchers
* Opportunities for researchers
* Wim Duisenberg Fellowship
* Regular Research Visitors
* Lamfalussy Fellowship
* Summer Research Graduate Programme
* Student Research Traineeship Programme
* Legal Research
* Legal Research
* Legal conferences and seminars
* Legal Research Programme
* Research papers
* Research papers
* Papers by authors
* ECB researchers
* Research networks
* News & publications
News & Publications
Browse all news & publications
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* News
* Press releases
* Statistical releases
* Speeches
* Interviews
* The ECB Blog
* Podcasts & webcasts
* Payments news & events
* Media contacts
* News & publications
* Publications
* Governing Council decisions
* Governing Council decisions
* Monetary policy decisions
* Other decisions
* Monetary policy accounts
* Economic Bulletin
* Economic Bulletin
* Articles
* Focus
* Monthly Bulletin
* Macroeconomic projections
* Annual reports & financial statements
* Annual reports & financial statements
* Annual Report
* Annual Report
* Annual Accounts
* Eurosystem balance sheet
* Eurosystem balance sheet
* Monetary policy operations
* Weekly financial statements
* Weekly financial statements
* Disaggregated data
* Financial stability publications
* Financial stability publications
* Financial Stability Review
* Financial Stability Review
* Special features & boxes
* Macroprudential Bulletin
* Research publications
* Research publications
* Research Bulletin
* Working papers
* Discussion papers
* Occasional papers
* Legal working papers
* Statistics papers
* Other publications
* Other publications
* Letters to MEPs
* Convergence Report
* International Role of the Euro
* Events & calendars
* Monetary policy press conference
* Monetary policy press conference
* Monetary policy statements
* Monetary policy statements at a glance
* Conferences & seminars
* Conferences & seminars
* Forum on Central Banking
* Forum on Central Banking
* Young Economist Prize
* Past editions
* Civil society engagement
* Calendars
* Calendars
* Weekly schedule
* Meetings of the Governing Council and the General Council
* Statistical calendars
* Statistical calendars
* Money, banking and financial markets
* Euro area economic and financial developments by institutional sector
* External transactions and positions
* Prices, output, demand and labour
* Government finance
* Supervisory and prudential statistics
* Eurosystem's tender operations
* Reserve maintenance period
* Banking Supervision
* About us
About us
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* About us
* All about us
* Our leadership
* Our leadership
* Executive Board
* Governing Council
* General Council
* Supervisory Board
* Our organisation
* Our organisation
* ECB, ESCB and the Eurosystem
* ECB, ESCB and the Eurosystem
* ECB mission
* Eurosystem mission
* Strategic intents
* Organisational principles
* Our tasks and responsibilities
* Our tasks and responsibilities
* Monetary policy
* Statistics
* Financial stability and macroprudential policy
* Financial stability and macroprudential policy
* Our tasks
* Strategy
* Institutional framework
* Banknotes
* Payments & securities
* European relations
* European relations
* European cooperation
* EMU economic governance
* International affairs
* International affairs
* International relations and analysis
* International central bank cooperation
* Foreign reserves and own funds
* Foreign exchange operations
* Organisation chart of the ECB
* Capital subscription
* Corporate governance
* Our values
* Our values
* Independence
* Transparency
* Accountability
* Ethics – working with integrity
* Ethics – working with integrity
* Ethics Network of Multilateral Organizations (ENMO)
* Our history, arts and culture
* Our history, arts and culture
* Our history
* Our history
* 25 years of the ECB
* Economic and Monetary Union
* EU enlargement
* European Union
* Archives
* Archives
* Committee of Governors
* European Monetary Cooperation Fund
* Delors Committee
* European Monetary Institute
* European Central Bank
* Arts and culture
* Our legal framework
* Our legal framework
* EUR-Lex - Frequently asked questions
* Institutional framework
* Climate change and the ECB
* Climate change and the ECB
* Our climate and nature plan
* Climate-related financial disclosures
* Managing climate-related risks
* Supporting the green transition
* Fostering wider action
* Our approach
* Environmental protection
* Climate Insurance Protection Gap
* Sanctions imposed by the ECB
* Procurement
* Procurement
* Tenders
* Archive
* Electronic tendering system
* Access to documents
* Access to documents
* Public Register of Documents
* Contacts
* Contacts
* Address
* ECB public holidays
* ECB & You
ECB & You
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* ECB & You
* All about ECB & You
* Explainers
* Test your knowledge
* Youth initiatives
* Youth initiatives
* Girls' IT Bootcamp
* Everyone needs stability
* ECB & You broadcasts
* Ask us
* Visit us
* Visit us
* Main building
* Careers
Careers
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Careers
* All about careers
* Vacancies
* Who we are
* Who we are
* About the ECB
* Meet our people
* Life in Frankfurt
* Why we value diversity
* Why we value diversity
* Women@ECB
* Diversity networks
* What we offer
* What we offer
* Benefits & rewards
* Contract types
* Contract types
* Fixed-term
* Short-term
* ESCB/IO
* Other
* Traineeship
* Graduate programme
* ECB Scholarship for Women
* ECB Scholarship for Ukrainian graduates
* How you can join us
* How you can join us
* How to apply
* How we hire
* You have been selected, what next?
* You have been selected, what next?
* Fixed-term employee
* Short-term employee
* Trainee
* Cost-free secondee
* FAQs
Search
Menu
ANYTIME
PAST MONTH
PAST YEAR
Search Options
Image Preview
Sort by
ANYTIME PAST MONTH PAST YEAR
Suggestions
Home Media Explainers Research & Publications Statistics Monetary Policy The
€uro Payments & Markets Careers
Suggestions
Sort by
Relevance Date
SPEECH
MONETARY POLICY IN THE EURO AREA
We have seen important changes to the path of inflation, the shocks driving
inflation and the risks to inflation, says President Christine Lagarde in a
speech in Vilnius. That is why we have changed our monetary policy stance and
future orientation.
Read President Lagarde’s speech
In focus
© Oscar Wong
PUBLICATION 19 December 2024
PAYMENT ATTITUDES OF EURO AREA CONSUMERS
What was the most common way to pay in the euro area in 2024? What do consumers
value most about different payment methods? We looked at these and other
questions in our latest study on how people like to pay in the euro area.
Read more
© Adrian Petty / ECB
SPEECH 16 December 2024
NAVIGATING TOWARDS NEUTRAL
Monetary policy should proceed gradually and remain data-dependent, says
Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. Once price stability is restored,
central banks can be more tolerant of moderate deviations of inflation from
target, in both directions.
Read Isabel's speech
PODCAST 20 December 2024
TARIFFS, TENSIONS AND TACKLING INFLATION
What impact do global events have on the European economy? And how has the ECB’s
monetary policy shifted recently? As 2024 comes to an end, our host Paul Gordon
discusses these questions and more with Chief Economist Philip R. Lane.
Listen to The ECB Podcast
Press releases
19 December 2024
PRESS RELEASE
ECB appoints Karin Turner-Hrdlicka as Director General On-site and Internal
Model Inspections
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
DeutschDE
Français
19 December 2024
PRESS RELEASE
Digital payments continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace; cash remains a key
payment method
English
Español
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
FrançaisFR
Related
19 December 2024
PAGE
Study on the payment attitudes of consumers in the euro area (SPACE)
English
Details
SummaryResults of a study on the payment attitudes of consumers in the euro area
19 December 2024
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (MONTHLY)
Euro area monthly balance of payments: October 2024
English
Annexes
19 December 2024
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (MONTHLY)
Table
English
18 December 2024
PRESS RELEASE
ECB publishes new wage tracker indicators
English
Français
18 December 2024
PRESS RELEASE
ECB and EIOPA propose European approach to reduce economic impact of natural
catastrophes
English
Deutsch
OTHER LANGUAGES (2) +
Select your language
EspañolES FrançaisFR
Related
18 December 2024
PAGE
The climate insurance protection gap
English
ALL PRESS RELEASES
Speeches
18 December 2024
Philip R. Lane: The euro area outlook and monetary policy
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, MNI Webcast
English
Annexes
18 December 2024
Slides
English
16 December 2024
Isabel Schnabel: Navigating towards neutral
Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at
the CEPR Paris Symposium 2024 hosted by the Banque de France
English
Annexes
16 December 2024
Presentation slides
English
16 December 2024
Christine Lagarde: Monetary policy in the euro area
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Bank of Lithuania’s
Annual Economics Conference on “Pillars of Resilience Amid Global Geopolitical
Shifts”, on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of euro introduction, Vilnius,
Lithuania
English
12 December 2024
Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement (with Q&A)
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the
ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 12 December 2024
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
Select your language
БългарскиBG ČeštinaCS DanskDA DeutschDE EλληνικάEL EspañolES Eesti keelET
SuomiFI FrançaisFR GaeilgeGA HrvatskiHR MagyarHU ItalianoIT LietuviųLT
LatviešuLV MaltiMT NederlandsNL PolskiPL PortuguêsPT RomânăRO SlovenčinaSK
SlovenščinaSL SvenskaSV
Related
12 December 2024
Combined monetary policy decisions and statement
English
12 December 2024
Monetary policy decisions
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
Select your language
БългарскиBG ČeštinaCS DanskDA DeutschDE EλληνικάEL EspañolES Eesti keelET
SuomiFI FrançaisFR GaeilgeGA HrvatskiHR MagyarHU ItalianoIT LietuviųLT
LatviešuLV MaltiMT NederlandsNL PolskiPL PortuguêsPT RomânăRO SlovenčinaSK
SlovenščinaSL SvenskaSV
4 December 2024
Christine Lagarde: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of
the European Parliament
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the
Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
English
Annexes
4 December 2024
Introductory statement in three charts
English
4 December 2024
Transcript of the hearing
English
ALL SPEECHES
Interviews
4 December 2024
Christine Lagarde: How to turn European savings into investment, innovation and
growth
Contribution by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB to The Economist
English
28 November 2024
Christine Lagarde: Interview with the Financial Times
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Roula
Khalaf, Patrick Jenkins and Olaf Storbeck on 25 November 2024
English
27 November 2024
Isabel Schnabel: Interview with Bloomberg
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB,
conducted by Mark Schrörs and Alexander Weber on 25 November 2024
English
26 November 2024
Luis de Guindos: Interview with Helsingin Sanomat
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Petri
Sajari
English
25 November 2024
Philip R. Lane: Interview with Les Echos
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB,
conducted by Guillaume Benoit on 19 November 2024
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
FrançaisFR
ALL INTERVIEWS
The ECB Blog
18 December 2024
The ECB wage tracker: your guide to euro area wage developments
The growth of negotiated wages is expected to ease in 2025. This is the
information emerging from the ECB wage tracker, which we will publish on a
regular basis from now on. The ECB Blog explains the tool and how it can help
monitor wage pressures in the euro area.
* Colm Bates
* Vasco Botelho
* Sarah Holton
* Marc Roca I Llevadot
* Mirko Stanislao
English
16 December 2024
What drives domestic inflation? The triangle of wages, profits and productivity
Though overall inflation has come down a lot, domestic inflation remains
stubbornly high. This is typical for monetary policy tightening cycles. To
understand why, The ECB Blog looks at how monetary policy is transmitted to
wages, profits and productivity.
* Stefan Gebauer
* Thomas McGregor
* Sebastiaan Pool
English
Details
JEL CodeE31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business
Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary
Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting
and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking,
and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
3 December 2024
Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus: Crisis and Recovery
At the height of the financial crisis Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus
needed help. The international assistance came under the condition of economic
adjustment aiming to restore financial stability, debt sustainability and
growth. How did the four countries recover from their crises?
* Marinela-Daniela Filip
* Klaus Masuch
* Ralph Setzer
* Vilém Valenta
English
28 November 2024
Financial intermediation beyond banks: taking a macroprudential approach
The European Commission is seeking the views of stakeholders on policies to
guard against the build-up of systemic risk in the financial sector beyond
banks. This ECB Blog post describes the pillars of a macroprudential approach
for the so-called non-bank financial sector and explains the need to further
develop the policy framework.
* François Haas
* Cornelia Holthausen
* Vasileios Madouros
English
Details
JEL CodeG23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank
Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
19 November 2024
Luis de Guindos: Can our financial system support the green transition when the
going gets tough?
Meeting the EU’s climate neutrality targets calls for deep structural changes
and significant private funding, requiring a healthy financial system. That’s
why we’ve tested how resilient banks, investment funds and insurers are to
stresses arising during the green transition. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos
explains the findings.
English
Related
19 November 2024
Transition risk losses alone unlikely to threaten EU financial stability,
“Fit-For-55” climate stress test shows
English
Deutsch
OTHER LANGUAGES (2) +
Select your language
EspañolES FrançaisFR
19 November 2024
FAQ on one-off “Fit-for-55” climate scenario analysis
English
ALL BLOG POSTS
Publications1
20 December 2024
GOVERNING COUNCIL STATEMENT
Governing Council statement on macroprudential policies
English
19 December 2024
STUDY ON THE PAYMENT ATTITUDES OF CONSUMERS IN THE EURO AREA (SPACE)
Study on the payment attitudes of consumers in the euro area 2024
English
English
Annexes
19 December 2024
STUDY ON THE PAYMENT ATTITUDES OF CONSUMERS IN THE EURO AREA (SPACE)
Annex A
English
19 December 2024
STUDY ON THE PAYMENT ATTITUDES OF CONSUMERS IN THE EURO AREA (SPACE)
Annex B
English
19 December 2024
STUDY ON THE PAYMENT ATTITUDES OF CONSUMERS IN THE EURO AREA (SPACE)
Charts
English
19 December 2024
STUDY ON THE PAYMENT ATTITUDES OF CONSUMERS IN THE EURO AREA (SPACE)
Country specific data
English
19 December 2024
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 365
Navigating a fragmenting global trading system: insights for central banks
* Maria Grazia Attinasi
* Michele Mancini
* Lukas Boeckelmann
* Claire Giordano
* Baptiste Meunier
* Ludovic Panon
* Ana M. Almeida
* Irina Balteanu
* Marta Bańbura
* Elena Bobeica
* Oscar Borgogno
* Alessandro Borin
* Peonare Caka
* Rodolfo Campos
* Juan Carluccio
* Paola Di Casola
* Dennis Essers
* Guillaume Gaulier
* Rinalds Gerinovics
* Demosthenes Ioannou
* Makram Khalil
* Laura Lebastard
* Wolfgang Lechthaler
* Catalina Martínez Hernández
* Richard Morris
* Michele Savini Zangrandi
* Katja Schmidt
* Roberta Serafini
* Felix Strobel
* Sebastian Stumpner
* Jacopo Timini
* Francesca Viani
* Marco Bottone
* Francesco Paolo Conteduca
* Bernardo De Castro Martins
* Simona Giglioli
* Juuso Kaaresvirta
* Ambre Kutten
* Noemi Matavulj
* Riikka Nuutilainen
* Javier Quintana
* Gabriel Smagghue
English
Details
AbstractIn light of recent global economic and geopolitical shocks threatening
trade openness, this report aims to shed light on geoeconomic fragmentation and
develops a rich set of new tools to assess its economic effects and implications
for central banks. The report shows that, although global trade integration has
largely withstood recent disruptions and the rise of inward-looking policies,
selective decoupling between few trading partners (United States vis-à-vis
China, western economies vis-à-vis Russia) and for specific products (such as
advanced technologies) is occurring. Survey data show that, although European
firms are reorganising supply chains critical foreign dependencies persist. A
firm-level stress test reveals that sudden disruptions in the supply of critical
inputs from high-risk countries would lead to significant, albeit very
heterogeneous, economic losses across firms, regions and sectors. Addressing
foreign dependencies with broad-based protectionism policies, however, is
self-defeating. In an extreme counterfactual scenario involving prohibitive and
across-the-board trade barriers between geopolitical blocs, global GDP could
decline by up to 9% coupled with an increase in global inflation of 4 percentage
points in the first year, with the impact persisting for at least five years. It
is conceivable that trade fragmentation will unravel over the course of a number
of years, with supply disruptions becoming more frequent and severe than in the
past. If this process should ultimately lead to a less interconnected global
economy, countries might suffer from increased volatility and price pressures,
as shocks cannot be easily diversified away through trade. [...]JEL CodeF13 :
International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and
International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
F52 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and
International Political Economy→National Security, Economic Nationalism
F61 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Microeconomic
Impacts
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic
Impacts
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and
Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking,
and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
18 December 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3007
The geography of capital allocation in the euro area
* Roland Beck
* Martin Schmitz
* Antonio Coppola
* Angus Lewis
* Matteo Maggiori
* Jesse Schreger
English
Details
AbstractWe assess Euro Area financial integration correcting for the role of
“onshore offshore financial centers” (OOFCs) within the Euro Area. The OOFCs of
Luxembourg, Ireland, and the Netherlands serve dual roles as both hubs of
investment fund intermediation and centers of securities issuance by foreign
firms. We provide new estimates of Euro Area countries’ bilateral portfolio
investments which look through both roles, attributing the wealth held via
investment funds to the underlying holders and linking securities issuance to
the ultimate parent firms. Our new estimates show that the Euro Area is less
financially integrated than it appears, both within the currency union and
vis-à-vis the rest of the world. While official data suggests a sharp decline in
portfolio home bias for Euro Area countries relative to other developed
economies following the introduction of the euro, we demonstrate that this
pattern only remains true for bond portfolios, while it is artificially
generated by OOFC activities for equity portfolios. Further, using new
administrative evidence on the identity of non-Euro Area investors in OOFC
funds, we document that the bulk of the positions constituting missing wealth in
international financial accounts are now accounted for by United Kingdom
counterparts.JEL CodeF3 : International Economics→International Finance
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and
Finance
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
G3 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance
H26 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Tax Evasion
18 December 2024
OTHER PUBLICATION
Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management
English
17 December 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3006
Trust in central banks
* Michael Ehrmann
English
Details
AbstractTrust in the central bank is an essential ingredient for a successful
conduct of monetary policy. However, for many central banks trust has recently
declined, for instance in the wake of the post-pandemic inflation surge, due to
large errors in central banks’ inflation forecasts, or given problems when
exiting from forward guidance. The rapid, substantial and persistent erosion of
trust makes it clear that trust needs to be earned continuously. This paper
reviews why trust is important, what determines it and how central banks can
enhance it. It also argues that it is important for central banks to improve the
measurement and monitoring of trust. It ends by highlighting some future
challenges for maintaining trust.JEL CodeE52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary
Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and
Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking,
and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G53 : Financial Economics
16 December 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3005
Why do we need to strengthen climate adaptations? Scenarios and financial lines
of defence
* Francesco Paolo Mongelli
* Andrej Ceglar
* Benedikt Alois Scheid
English
Details
AbstractAdaptation needs are vast, rising fast and difficult to determine in
their entirety, especially with uncertain adverse scenarios due to climate
inertia and implementation lags. Adaptation is hindered by a lack of a unified
understanding of what it necessitates; the challenge in pointing out its costs,
benefits, and residual risks; insufficiently prescriptive policy and legal
frameworks; and the growing financing gap. Conversely, we now have better
granular climate data to study the impacts of climate hazards and forecast
climate risks; there is awareness that adaptation choices must be dynamic and
reactive; and there is an increasing pool of case studies from which to learn.
There is evidence that efficient adaptation investments can yield
“triple-dividends” helping to close the financing gap. There is a need to absorb
and smooth the impacts of rising extreme climate events. Innovative financial
instruments, such as catastrophe bonds and climate bonds, might support
challenged insurance coverages.JEL CodeE52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary
Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and
Credit→Monetary Policy
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological
Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
16 December 2024
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 364
A look back at 25 years of the ECB SPF
* Anastasia Allayioti
* Rodolfo Arioli
* Colm Bates
* Vasco Botelho
* Bruno Fagandini
* Luís Fonseca
* Peter Healy
* Aidan Meyler
* Ryan Minasian
* Octavia Zahrt
English
Details
AbstractThis paper looks back on the 25-year history of the ECB Survey of
Professional Forecasters (SPF). Since its launch in the first quarter of 1999,
it has served as an important input for policymaking and analysis, especially
over the past five years, where the euro area has, following a period of low
inflation, navigated a global pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and an
unprecedented surge in inflation. The survey has evolved over time and provides
not only a long time series of economic expectations and forecasts, but also
valuable insights on key topical issues and on economic risks and uncertainties.
We show that, for each of the three main macroeconomic variables forecast – HICP
inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate – the track record of the
ECB SPF in forecasting has been broadly comparable to that of the Eurosystem. In
addition, its combination of quantitative point forecasts and probability
distributions with qualitative explanations has provided useful input for
macroeconomic analysis. Beyond analyses of the forecasts for the main
macroeconomic variables, there are also two further sections that examine the
technical assumptions (oil prices, policy rates, exchange rates and wages)
underlying SPF expectations and an analysis and assessment of measures of
macroeconomic uncertainty. Technical assumptions are shown to account for the
lion’s share of the variance in the inflation forecast errors, while uncertainty
is shown to have increased considerably relative to that which prevailed during
the early years of the SPF (1999-2008). Looking ahead, the SPF – with its long
track record, its large and broad panel (spanning both financial and
non-financial forecasters) and committed panellists – will undoubtedly continue
to provide timely and useful insights for the ECB’s policymakers, macroeconomic
experts, economic researchers and the wider public.JEL CodeD84 :
Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations,
Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and
Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and
Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking,
and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic
Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
16 December 2024
SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), December 2024, Aggregated Results
English
English
16 December 2024
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 126
The “doom loop” and default incentives
* Dominik Thaler
* Luis E. Rojas
English
English
Details
AbstractThe “doom loop” or “sovereign-bank nexus” has been a key factor in the
European debt crisis, driven by feedback between fiscal sustainability risks and
financial stability. This Research Bulletin revisits the doom loop, examining
strategic default incentives and the unintended effects of policy interventions.
While limiting banks’ exposure to sovereign debt can break the doom loop, it may
increase default risks by weakening governments’ repayment incentives.
Similarly, measures like the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) or
European Safe Bonds (ESBies) can mitigate the doom loop but might introduce new
vulnerabilities, requiring precise calibration. Counterintuitively, allowing
banks to increase sovereign bond holdings during crises may stabilise markets by
reducing default incentives. These findings underscore the complex trade-offs
and the need for nuanced policy design at both national and monetary union
levels.JEL CodeE44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest
Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic
Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and
Debt Problems
13 December 2024
LETTERS TO MEPS
Letter from the ECB President to Mr Fabio de Masi, MEP, on the economic outlook
and monetary policy
English
13 December 2024
LETTERS TO MEPS
Letter from the ECB President to Mr Fabio de Masi, MEP, on monetary policy
English
13 December 2024
LETTERS TO MEPS
Letter from the ECB President to Mr Fabio de Masi, MEP, on monetary policy
English
13 December 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3004
Nowcasting Made Easier: a toolbox for economists
* Jan Linzenich
* Baptiste Meunier
English
Details
AbstractWe provide a versatile nowcasting toolbox that supports three model
classes (dynamic factor models, large Bayesian VAR, bridge equations) and offers
methods to manage data selection and adjust for Covid-19 observations. The
toolbox aims at simplifying two key tasks: creating new nowcasting models and
improving the policy analysis. For model creation, the toolbox automatizes
testing input variables, assessing model accuracy, and checking robustness to
the Covid period. The toolbox is organized along a structured three-step
approach: variable pre-selection, model selection, and Covid robustness.
Non-specialists can easily follow these steps to develop high-performing models,
while experts can leverage the automated tests and analyses. For regular policy
use, the toolbox generates a large range of outputs to aid conjunctural analysis
like news decomposition, confidence bands, alternative forecasts, and heatmaps.
These multiple outputs aim at opening the "black box" often associated with
nowcasts and at gauging the reliability of real-time predictions. We showcase
the toolbox features to create a nowcasting model for global GDP growth.
Overall, the toolbox aims at facilitating creation, evaluation, and deployment
of nowcasting models. Code and templates are available on GitHub:
https://github.com/baptiste-meunier/Nowcasting_toolbox.JEL CodeC22 :
Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single
Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment
Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model
Construction and Estimation
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model
Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and
Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with
Large Data Sets?
13 December 2024
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 363
The evolution of the supervisory reporting framework for the EU banking sector
* Paolo Poloni
English
Details
AbstractSupervisory data are typically not conceived for statistical purposes or
considered “official statistics”, but they are disclosed to the public, either
directly by the supervised institutions or indirectly by the competent
authorities. This disclosure is required under Pillar 3 of the Basel framework
on banking supervision. The aim of the framework is to promote market
discipline, whereby market participants monitor the risks and financial
positions of banks and take action to guide, limit and price their risk-taking
to safeguard financial stability. The disclosure of supervisory data is
therefore a public good. In addition, supervisory data can be a reliable source
for official statistics such as financial accounts. On the other hand, the
nature of supervisory data differs from that of standard official statistics and
its quality is subject to a robust assessment framework, with distinct
particularities. The aim of this paper is to analyse the EU supervisory
reporting framework from an institutional and policy perspective, in view of its
potential and desirable evolution over time, including its possible integration
with the statistical framework. The paper is split into three main parts. First,
it describes the historical and current EU institutional settings, including the
role of the European Banking Authority (EBA) reporting framework and the role of
the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), focusing on the data quality assessment
framework and the publication of supervisory statistics. […]JEL CodeC81 :
Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation
Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and
Organizing Microeconomic Data, Data Access
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository
Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy
and Regulation
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and
Regulation
13 December 2024
LEGAL CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS
ESCB Legal Conference 2024
English
12 December 2024
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, December 2024
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
Select your language
БългарскиBG ČeštinaCS DanskDA DeutschDE EλληνικάEL EspañolES Eesti keelET
SuomiFI FrançaisFR HrvatskiHR MagyarHU ItalianoIT LietuviųLT LatviešuLV
NederlandsNL PolskiPL PortuguêsPT RomânăRO SlovenčinaSK SlovenščinaSL SvenskaSV
English
Annexes
12 December 2024
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Projections charts and tables
English
4 December 2024
INTEGRATED REPORTING FRAMEWORK DOCUMENT
The Eurosystem Integrated Reporting Framework ‒ an overview
English
3 December 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3003
Monetary policy pass-through to consumer prices: evidence from granular price
data
* Anastasia Allayioti
* Lucyna Gόrnicka
* Sarah Holton
* Catalina Martínez Hernández
English
Details
AbstractWe document that about 33% of the core inflation basket in the euro area
is sensitive to monetary policy shocks. We assess potential theoretical
mechanisms driving the sensitivity. Our results suggest that items of a
discretionary nature, as reflected in a higher share in the consumption baskets
of richer households, and those with larger role of credit in financing their
purchase, tend to be more sensitive.Non-sensitive items are more frequently
subject to administered prices and include non-discretionary items such as rents
and medical services. Energy intensity does not seem to drive our results and
the sensitive items are not dominated by durable goods, but are relatively
evenly split between goods and services. Estimations over different samples show
that the impact of monetary policy shocks on sensitive core inflation has become
larger recently.JEL CodeE30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices,
Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking,
and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation
Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions,
Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
3 December 2024
CONSULTATION RESPONSE
ECB staff contribution to the European Commission’s targeted consultation on the
functioning of the EU securitisation framework
English
ALL PUBLICATIONS
Digital euro
Read more
INTEREST RATES
Marginal lending facility 3.40 % Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) 3.15 %
Deposit facility 3.00 %
18 December 2024 Past key ECB interest rates
INFLATION RATE
2024JulOct1.52.02.5
1.7%
September '24
2.0%
October '24
2.2%
November '24
More on inflation
EXCHANGE RATES
USD US dollar 1.0395 JPY Japanese yen 163.07 GBP Pound sterling 0.82445 CHF
Swiss franc 0.9319
Last update: 19 December 2024 Euro foreign exchange rates
FINANCIAL STABILITY
Our tasks Institutional framework Financial Stability Review Macroprudential
policy measures
MARKET OPERATIONS
Open market operations Asset purchase programmes Lendings of holdings under PSPP
NOT AN EXPERT? CHECK OUT OUR EXPLAINERS
LEARN MORE
What is the European Central Bank?
CURIOUS FOR MORE?
QUIZ
8 December 2024
Quiz: euro banknote security and design
PODCAST
25 November 2024
Financial stability in uncertain times
FRAUD
20 November 2024
Beware of fraud
PODCAST
1 November 2024
The financial fallout from a warming world
PODCAST
17 October 2024
Tune in to our latest decisions
MONETARY POLICY
17 October 2024
Our monetary policy statement at a glance
PODCAST
5 October 2024
“Swiftflation”, banknotes and the digital euro
Are you happy with this page?
Yes No
What made you unhappy?
Page not working Information not useful Design not attractive Something else
Thank you for letting us know!
Site directory
FOLLOW US
Copyright 2024, European Central Bank
Useful links
* Work with us
* Glossary
* Other institutions
Using our site
* Disclaimer & Copyright
* Privacy statement
* Language policy
* Technical updates to this site
Corporate Policies
* Data Protection
* Access to documents
* Responsible disclosure
Contact
* Contacts
* Address
* Public holidays
OUR WEBSITE USES COOKIES
We use functional cookies to store user preferences; analytics cookies to
improve website performance; third-party cookies set by third-party services
integrated into the website.
You have the choice to accept or reject them. For more information or to review
your preference on the cookies and server logs we use, we invite you to:
Read our privacy statement
Learn more about how we use cookies
I understand and I accept the use of cookies I do not accept the use of cookies
THANK YOU!
THANK YOU!
WE HAVE UPDATED OUR PRIVACY POLICY
We are always working to improve this website for our users. To do this, we use
the anonymous data provided by cookies.
See what has changed in our privacy policy
I understand and I accept the use of cookies I do not accept the use of cookies
YOUR COOKIE PREFERENCE HAS EXPIRED
We are always working to improve this website for our users. To do this, we use
the anonymous data provided by cookies.
Learn more about how we use cookies
I understand and I accept the use of cookies I do not accept the use of cookies
This feature requires cookies.
Privacy statement