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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TELLS FLORIDIANS TO MONITOR SOON-TO-BE TROPICAL STORM
SARA
By Mary Gilbert, CNN Meteorologist
4 minute read
Updated 9:02 AM EST, Thu November 14, 2024
Link Copied!
Follow:
Hurricanes See your latest updates
Tropical Depression Nineteen churns in the Caribbean Sea early Thursday morning.
CIRA/RAMMB
CNN —
Tropical Storm Sara is expected in the Caribbean soon and will deliver
“life-threatening” impacts to parts of Central America as it begins a journey
that could once again bring a tropical threat into the Gulf of Mexico.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are urging residents of the eastern
Gulf Coast, including Floridians, to monitor the forecast closely because the
storm could reach the US next week.
Soon-to-be Sara is another example of an Atlantic hurricane season that hasn’t
played by the rules. Tropical activity should be winding down in November, but
this will be the third named storm this month instead thanks to exceptionally
warm water wrought by climate change.
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For now, it is Tropical Depression Nineteen with 35 mph maximum sustained winds
and is located 65 miles east of the Honduras/Nicaragua border in the Caribbean
Sea, according to the NHC.
The storm will strengthen as it meanders and nearly stalls over the very warm
water of the western Caribbean Sea — the same body of water that fueled
Hurricane Rafael — and will be a tropical storm while near the northern coast of
Honduras over the weekend.
Tropical storm alerts have been issued for parts of Honduras and Nicaragua, with
the storm’s wind and rain expected to arrive as soon as Thursday evening and
ramp up Friday.
The storm will bring “life-threatening” flooding rainfall up to 30 inches to
Honduras and double-digit rainfall totals to other parts of Central America, the
NHC warned. That could mean “widespread areas of life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides.”
It will then threaten Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula with storm surge and
gusty winds by early next week, so residents should prepare.
The potential impacts on the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba, remain uncertain, and those in these areas should
closely monitor forecasts because the forecast becomes extremely uncertain
beyond this weekend.
US THREAT?
There are a few potential scenarios on the table for how formidable the storm
could be and whether it could reach the US next week. They all hinge on how
close Sara gets to the coast of Honduras over the next few days.
The official forecast from the hurricane center has the system skimming along
the coast of Honduras over the weekend, but this could change.
If it makes landfall in Honduras this weekend and moves far enough inland, it
could deteriorate while over land, cut off from the warm water fueling it. This
scenario would bring strong winds and torrential rain to Central America, but
could keep the storm away from the US entirely or have it approach as a very
weak storm.
If Sara remains very close to the coast of Central America, but briefly moves
over land, it could eventually emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico next week
as a weak, but slightly stronger storm than in the first scenario. This scenario
would lessen the blow if it were to reach the US. It would still unleash
life-threatening flooding rainfall in Central America and head for dangerous
strike on Belize and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula
But if the system stays far enough away from the coast and over the Caribbean’s
tremendously warm water, it could strengthen considerably — and possibly rapidly
intensify. This would bring more substantial impacts to Central America, the
Yucatán and Belize and a much more troubling forecast for the US.
Sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are currently their second-warmest on
record — just behind 2023’s record-breaking heat. They’re warmer than they
should be at the peak of hurricane season and could continue to produce
unusually strong storms. Warmer bodies of water are fueling stronger storms and
more rapid intensification as the world warms due to fossil fuel pollution.
Sara could make a gradual turn to the northwest after it exits Central America,
head for a powerful strike on the Yucatán and potentially reach the eastern Gulf
of Mexico as a much stronger storm that could make a run at Florida next week.
The Gulf is record-warm for this time of year and likewise could boost or
sustain any system that reaches it.
All scenarios are still possible, but forecast models are starting to agree that
the storm will get much closer to the Honduras coast than initially thought
Wednesday, making the more troubling scenario less likely.
Five hurricanes have slammed into the US Gulf Coast this year.
If this system were to make landfall in the US, it could challenge the latest
landfalling hurricane on record. The current record rests with Hurricane Kate,
which made landfall as a Category 2 storm in Florida on November 21, 1985.
Hurricane season officially comes to an end on November 30, but named storms
have formed in December in the past.
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