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The Fifty

IT’S NOT JUST MCAULIFFE VS. YOUNGKIN. THE FIGHT IS ON FOR CONTROL OF VIRGINIA’S
HOUSE.

Virginia might be increasingly blue at the presidential level, but Democrats
only flipped the state legislature in 2019. Next month, they could lose the
governor’s mansion and the state House.

First lady Jill Biden speaks at a rally in Richmond, Va. on Oct. 15 in support
of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe. Democrats could lose both
the governor&#39;s mansion and the state House next month if Virginia elections
don&#39;t go their way. | Steve Helber/AP Photo

By Liz Crampton

10/20/2021 04:30 AM EDT

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* * Link Copied
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VIRGINIA BEACH, Va. — Alex Askew knows firsthand how tight elections can get for
Democrats in Virginia. He barely won his seat in the state House of Delegates,
defeating his Republican opponent by just 802 votes in 2019.

That’s why Askew is campaigning furiously ahead of the November election. On the
first Sunday of “Souls to the Polls” early voting over the weekend, Askew, 36,
attended two church services before an afternoon of campaign events and
canvassing. He was joined by a colleague, state Del. Nancy Guy, who clinched her
seat by an even closer margin of just 40 votes.

In the unfolding pandemic, economic crisis and reckoning on race, governors and
mayors are shaping our shared future. Who are the power players, and how are
they driving politics and influencing Washington?

Full coverage »

“One of the things we’re going to share with you is how important all elections
are, not just the presidential elections, but all elections,” said Veronica
Coleman, the pastor at New Jerusalem Ministries, Askew’s home church where he
began his day. “Amen?”

“Amen,” the crowd repeated.

When Virginia voters cast their ballots in two weeks, they’re not just weighing
in on a closely watched governor’s election — one that’s been hyped as a
bellwether ahead of the 2022 midterms and a judgement on President Joe Biden.
They’re also deciding whether to keep legislative Democrats in office, a choice
that will determine how much statewide power the party will yield and reveal
voters’ satisfaction with the crush of progressive laws enacted in the last two
years.

Virginia might be increasingly blue at the presidential level, but Democrats
only came to control both chambers of the state legislature in 2019, after
nearly two decades of mostly Republican control. Next month, they could lose
control of both the governor’s mansion and the House, all in one day.

Republicans have cast the election as a referendum on the left’s agenda, not
just in Richmond but also in Washington. Whoever wins will be the party that
best motivates their base and turns out people to vote in an off year.

Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin sparring during a
Virginia gubernatorial debate. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

State House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn said she is “making sure everyone knows
all we’ve accomplished, why it matters who governs, why it’s important to make
sure that we maintain if not grow our majority.”

“We’ve got a story to tell,” she said in an interview. “There’s no doubt in my
mind that Virginia elections will have national implications at every level of
the ballot.”

BLUE WAVE POLICIES

Democrats spent the last two years passing a long list of sweeping policies.
They implemented criminal justice reforms, legalized marijuana, expanded voting
rights, raised the minimum wage, enacted gun control measures, repealed the
death penalty and set a goal of getting Virginia electric utilities to 100
percent renewable generation by 2050.

Down-ballot Democrats contend that those policies are popular with voters and
believe it’s what will get them reelected in November. State House Democrats
have raked in more than $36.9 millionthis election cycle, dwarfing Republicans’
total of $17.6 million.

POLITICO DISPATCH: OCTOBER 12

The governor’s mansion isn’t the only thing on the line in November. Republicans
could also take back control of the State House.

Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | Subscribe on Google Podcasts

But Republicans are jumping on all that activity by framing Democrats as radical
liberals who reflect the Biden administration and Democrats in Congress. The
Republican State Leadership Committee in August launched a six-figure television
ad campaign targeting six Democratic incumbents. Those ads attacked Democrats on
issues like increased costs of living due to rising inflation, rising violent
crime rates and “politicization of public education.”

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“The Democrats, when they took control of the General Assembly, they kind of
went nuts,” said Garren Shipley, communications director for House Minority
Leader Todd Gilbert. “They made the mistake of thinking Twitter was their actual
district. They locked into this massive spree of all sorts of left-wing things.”

Republicans portray Democrats as the “defund-the-police” party, an issue they
say stirs up their base. Campaigns have zeroed in on the criminal justice reform
package that put in place changes to policing practices such as banning no-knock
warrants, requiring minimum training standards for police and strengthening the
decertification process for law enforcement.

Yet no enacted policies from Democrats in the legislature involved defunding
police departments, and the Covid-19 federal spending relief plan approved by
the legislature included bonuses for sheriff’s deputies, corrections officers
and police officers.

House speaker Del. Eileen Filler-Corn exits the center isle of the empty
Virginia House of Delegates chamber after a Zoom Legislative session in
Richmond, Va. on Feb. 10. | Steve Helber/AP Photo

Republicans say they’re confident that they’ll be able to pick up at least one
seat and hopeful they’ll gain a handful by the end of election night. And they
insist that, while taking the chamber is unlikely, it’s still within reach.

Virginia’s election cycles have fallen into a predictable pattern that has
encouraged Republicans this fall. In the year after a presidential election, the
party that doesn’t hold the White House performs well at the ballot box.

But there’s a notable exception that’s relevant to the current governor’s race:
While former President Barack Obama was in office, Republican Ken Cuccinelli
lost in 2013 to Democrat Terry McAuliffe, who is seeking the governorship again.

GAMING THE ELECTORAL MAP

Democrats are defending just a five-seat advantage in the state House. The most
competitive races are in Hampton Roads, which includes Norfolk, Virginia Beach
and Newport News, a suburban-dense region with a strong military presence. A few
Northern Virginia districts are expected to be tight as well.

“We know it won’t be easy,” said Jessica Post, executive director of the
Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. “This is an uncertain political
environment. We are trying to leverage that same energy we had in 2019.”

Yet the close nature of these races means there’s also a chance Democrats could
see gains. The party is focused on flipping about four GOP-held seats, like one
district in the suburbs of Richmond that went to a Republican by less than 1
percentage point.

Guy, whose district abuts Askew’s, said at a Sunday gathering of campaign staff
and volunteers that she’s “cautiously optimistic” about Democrats’ chances.
Earlier that day, Askew attended a second church service with Guy, along with
the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, Hala Ayala, showing how
Democrats are banding together in the mad dash to election day.

Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor Del. Hala Ayala gestures during a
rally in Richmond, Va., on Friday, Oct. 15. | Steve Helber/AP Photo

“Let’s win this thing, because it’s right there,” Askew told the group of
roughly two dozen who gathered in the parking lot of a state Democratic Party
office before splitting up to canvas nearby neighborhoods. “It’s within our
grasp.”

Askew’s Republican challenger, Karen Greenhalgh, founded a custom cabinet
manufacturing company and manages crisis pregnancy centers. She’s raised
$430,000 during her campaign.

Four hours north of Virginia Beach, up in Loudoun County, Democratic state Del.
Wendy Gooditis has the challenge of appeasing two different regions within her
district: One side is rural and more conservative and the other is suburban and
more progressive. She’s facing Nick Clemente, the Republican candidate who has
brought in the most fundraising dollars at $936,000. He’s running on a platform
focused on increasing funding for mental health services, keeping schools open
in the pandemic and maintaining funding for law enforcement. Clemente stands
with mainstream Republicans on social issues like opposing vaccine mandates and
using taxpayer funds for abortion.

Despite those opposing geographic and political factions, Gooditis voted with
the Democratic Party 99 percent of the time, according to the Virginia Public
Access Project. She’s hoping to convince all voters within her district that
Democrats have their best interests in mind, not just on local issues but ones
capturing national attention, like the Covid-19 pandemic and protection of
women’s reproductive rights.

In an interview, she referenced the “Don’t Texas my Virginia’’ slogan that’s
spread in the wake of Texas passing the nation’s most restrictive abortion law.
“That hits home with a lot of people,” she said. “My opponent is on the opposite
side of that.”

Up and down the ballot, Democrats are framing this election as a choice between
a progressive future and a regressive past if Republicans take over.

“There’s a question about who do you want to lead the state?’” Post said.
“Republicans are not presenting a moderate vision for Virginia.”

Virginia is heavily influenced by the national political environment. Democrats
are proudly linking themselves to the Biden administration, a strategy that
could pose a risk as Congress struggles to pass central pieces of Biden’s agenda
and the president’s approval rating has dropped by double digits since he
carried Virginia by 10 points in the presidential election.

For those reasons, Tucker Martin, a GOP consultant who worked for former
Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell, believes it will be hard for Democrats to
overcome that environment by championing specific pieces of policies.

“This race is being driven by Joe Biden’s approval rating and Trump being out of
the White House,” he said. “Those two meta-factors are the big movers.”

McAuliffe wins Democratic nomination for Virginia governor

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Democrats say they’re not worried about how Biden’s slipping popularity may hurt
them and maintain this election is just as much about what they accomplished in
Richmond as what’s happening in D.C.

“I’ve been happy to celebrate when the administration has done well. I’ve been
willing to talk about when things haven’t gone so well,” said state Del. Dan
Helmer, an Iraq and Afghanistan veteran whose district represents parts of
northwestern Prince William and Fairfax counties. He won in 2019 by less than
1,500 votes.

“My focus at the end of the day is on Virginia. Again, I think the work we’ve
done in Virginia speaks for itself.”

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* Elections,
* Virginia,
* The Fifty

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