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Home/News/North America’s reshoring of the global supply chain
News
NORTH AMERICA’S RESHORING OF THE GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN
GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIST PETER ZEIHAN’S VISION OF A COLLAPSING SUPPLY CHAIN WILL
BENEFIT US — IF IT CAN FIRST TACKLE INFLATION
John Gallagher
· Tuesday, November 01, 2022
Peter Zeihan (left) during keynote with FreightWaves Founder and CEO Craig
Fuller. (Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)
Listen to this article
0:00 / 4:11
1X
BeyondWords
CHATTANOOGA, Tenn. — With manufacturing and labor markets on the decline with
North America’s traditional partners in Asia — and with trade with Russia
collapsing — North America is in prime position to take advantage by reshoring
global sourcing.
“For the most part we can keep this in America — or at least North America,”
said geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan during the opening keynote Tuesday at
FreightWaves’ F3: Future of Freight Festival in Chattanooga, Tennessee.
Zeihan is the author of the recently published book “The End of the World is
Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.”
He said one of the keys to boosting U.S. trade will be reforming the Jones Act,
a century-old trade protection law that Zeihan contends boosts transport costs.
“This would help the country bring manufacturing back on the water in a very big
way,” he said. “Mexico is now ahead of Canada from a labor productivity measure,
which means that Mexico now needs a low-wage partner. Colombia and Cuba are the
obvious candidates. It’s a much simpler system, one that is reliant on things
close to home.
“When you want to do a trade deal with Russia or China, it’s a pain. But calling
on a country like Colombia, which is kind of desperate and wants to be part of
the club, it’s a much easier process and we don’t need to do things at scale to
the same degree. A small container ship is fine, you don’t need that massive
Triple E container ship.”
Some of the trends that many in the transportation industry are expecting to
happen quickly — such as the transition to electric vehicles — could be stuck in
neutral for a while, Zeihan said.
In fact, he said, “the [EV] transition is not going to happen — that’s the short
version. Russia is one of the top three suppliers of nickel, cobalt and aluminum
— and all of those are going to zero” as far as U.S. imports.
Peter Zeihan, left, and FreightWaves CEO and founder Craig Fuller.
“So we’re going to be in the position, very soon, where we will have to decide
which parts of the green transition are worth doing because we will not have the
materials. If you’re looking at this from a carbon production transition period,
a wind tower you put up in a place with wind, that has an immediate carbon
impact.
“But an EV does not, because it draws from the grid in its current form, and for
the most part the processing facilities required to build the EVs in the first
place are incredibly carbon intensive. And most vehicles running on most grids
are going to take in excess of a decade to pay back the carbon debt.”
And in a world where globalization is shifting — or ending — what does that mean
for inflation?
“Every disinflationary trend of the last 75 years has flipped, and every
inflationary trend is back at the same time. We are looking at 9% to 15%
inflation for at least the next five years — and that’s independent of anything
the Fed does,” he said.
“If at the end of the five-year period we’ve succeeded in building out the
industrial plant, we go back to a much tamer system that will be lower for
longer, because the supply chains will be local, the processing will be local
and we’ll be following our own labor metrics, which will have evolved because we
will have had to do a lot more with artificial intelligence and automation than
we currently have, especially as we bring in electronics manufacturing — we will
have a choice.
“But if we fail to do that, then the 9% to 15% inflation continues and there are
product shortages. From my standpoint, it’s a really clear path. The alternative
is to go through the worst of it and get none of the benefits.”
For companies looking to survive in the new North American supply chain,
“anything that makes you more modular and more capable and allows you to adapt
more quickly is something I think that can provide an outsized advantage,”
Zeihan said.
“We’re going to have fewer supply chain steps closer to home, and the
competitive nature to that is going to be very different from just waiting for
things to show up at the dock. We’re going to have the need to do everything
that is currently done in Asia but in fewer steps and right in our own world.
“That’s not just an issue of a capacity increase. That’s an awareness of what
the cargo is on a micro level and in each container so that anyone can go to
anything at any time and find out the best way to route within the system —
that’s going to require a lot more information technology.”
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F3keynotePeter ZeihanReshoringSupply chain
2 COMMENTS
1. ANGLIA
Sunday, November 06, 2022 at 4:23 pm
I’m making a decent compensation from home $60k/week , which is astonishing
under a year prior I was jobless in a horrendous economy. I say thanks to
God consistently I was honored with these guidelines and presently it’s my
obligation to show preemptive kindness and offer it with Everyone,
, GOOD LUCK.:)
Here is I begun.… … ……>> 𝗪𝘄𝘄.𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗵𝟳.𝗰𝗼𝗺
Reply
2. WM RAY BULLMAN
Tuesday, November 01, 2022 at 7:17 pm
Appreciate your informed, visionary report out. It’s too bad that
e-Muskification and nationalistic politics have taken root in the public
psyche, displacing collaborative thought and action required to develop the
efficient, concentric infrastructures we need now and into the future. I’ll
remain optimistic.
Reply
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JOHN GALLAGHER
Based in Washington, D.C., John specializes in regulation and legislation
affecting all sectors of freight transportation. He has covered rail, trucking
and maritime issues since 1993 for a variety of publications based in the U.S.
and the U.K. John began business reporting in 1993 at Broadcasting & Cable
Magazine. He graduated from Florida State University majoring in English and
business.
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