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BUSINESS / Economy


BANK OF JAPAN BOARD MEMBER MOOTS FED-STYLE DOT-PLOT PROJECTIONS

During the Bank of Japan's September policy board meeting, some members pointed
out that the central bank needs to more carefully communicate with the public to
prevent a divergence between its views and those of investors. | JIJI
By Kazuaki Nagata
STAFF WRITER
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Nov 6, 2024
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At least one Bank of Japan board member mentioned the possibility of making the
central bank’s policy-rate outlook more transparent, according to minutes from
its September policy meeting released Wednesday.

In their first meeting since a surprise rate increase in July, which may have
been at least in part responsible for a market crash, BOJ board members
discussed how the bank speaks to the markets.





Some members pointed out that the BOJ needs to more carefully communicate with
the public to prevent a divergence between the views of the bank and investors.

One member suggested that the BOJ come up with something similar to the dot
plots released by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which show short-term rate
projections of Fed officials.

“As there is a limit to what can be communicated solely through language, it
might be an option for the bank to release the policy board members' actual
projections for the policy interest rate path,” the minutes state.

Another member argued that, while the outlook for key economic data remains
unclear, Japan’s neutral policy rate is also unclear. The neutral policy rate is
the interest rate at which monetary policy neither restricts nor stimulates the
economy.

“Even if the bank provided numerical projections of the policy interest rate,
the projections would inevitably range quite widely and would therefore unlikely
lead to effective communication,” the board member said.

After the bank unexpectedly raised its short-term policy-rate target to 0.25%
from a range of 0% to 0.1% on July 31, Japanese stocks plummeted into
bear-market territory, with the benchmark 225-issue Nikkei stock average falling
12.4% — the second-biggest point decline ever — on Aug. 5.

Japan's currency strengthened dramatically, and stocks globally became volatile.

Since then, the BOJ’s communication style has been in the spotlight, with
officials vowing to do a better job of making their thinking on rates known to
the public.

Although the July rate increase may have caused market turmoil, many BOJ board
members agreed at the September meeting that domestic economic activity and
inflation were in line with the bank’s view, saying that the July rate increase
had not negatively affected the Japanese economy, according to the minutes.

The central bank discloses the minutes of its policy meetings once they are
approved at the next meeting that follows them.

At the latest policy meeting that took place last week, the BOJ left rates
unchanged in line with market expectations, but BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda changed his
tone, signaling that the central bank may be ready to make an upward move on
rates at the December meeting.

Prior to last week's meeting, Ueda said the bank had “enough time” to monitor
the economic situation before it raises rates again because of market
instability in relation to some weak U.S. economic data.

But the governor said last week that the markets seem to be regaining stability
with more positive U.S. economic indicators, so the BOJ does not need to use the
language that it still has “enough time.”

Due to this change of tone, some analysts predict that the BOJ will raise rates
during its December meeting, which is scheduled for Dec. 18 and 19.


KEYWORDS

BOJ(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/tag/boj), Japanese
economy(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/tag/japanese-economy), Kazuo
Ueda(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/tag/kazuo-ueda), FEDERAL
RESERVE(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/tag/federal-reserve)
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