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Governance



UKRAINE’S POPULATION CRISIS DEEPENS AS RUSSIAN INVASION HITS 1,000-DAY MARK

With one of Europe’s lowest birth rates, Ukraine battles the twin crises of war
and demographic collapse

UN aid workers at recent attack sites in Odesa, Ukraine@OCHA_Ukraine / X
(formerly Twitter)
Nandita Banerji


Published on: 
20 Nov 2024, 8:30 am
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Ukraine’s population crisis has emerged as a key concern for its recovery, even
as military alliance North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on November 19,
2024 marked the 1,000th day of Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country. The
country is facing a dual battle: defending its sovereignty and safeguarding its
future generations.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, in a video message, reaffirmed support for
Ukraine, calling for an end to the war that has wrought devastating human and
economic losses. 

Since 2014, when Russia first annexed Crimea, Ukraine’s population has declined
by over 10 million, according to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). The
ongoing conflict has exacerbated pre-existing demographic challenges, including
one of Europe’s lowest birth rates and a rapidly aging population. 

Also Read
Under siege for 846 days, here is what Ukraine plans to do with its 75,000 cubic
metres of ‘destruction waste’


Ukraine’s fertility rate has plummeted to one child per woman, well below the
replacement level of 2.1, making it the lowest in Europe. The war has
intensified this trend, as 8.6 million Ukrainians have fled the country and
daily attacks on civilian infrastructure continue to disrupt lives. Meanwhile,
6.7 million refugees remain displaced.

From 2000 to 2021, Ukraine’s live birth rate showed a consequential decline,
reaching a low of 7.3 births per 1,000 population in 2021, the lowest figure in
over a decade, according to data portal Statista. The highest recorded rate
during this period was 11.4 live births per 1,000 inhabitants in 2012.

In 2022, Ukraine's total population was estimated by Statista at approximately
41 million. However, this figure does not reflect the emigration and
displacement resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The demographic data is
extremely outdated as the last census was conducted in 2001.

Also Read
Ukraine war forces eagles to shift migratory route, making journey arduous and
stressful


“While the return of peace to Ukraine is paramount, much can be done now to
strengthen Ukraine's human capital and build the foundations for the country's
demographic recovery,” Florence Bauer, UNFPA regional director for Eastern
Europe and Central Asia, said at a press briefing in Geneva last month.

The demographic decline has far-reaching economic implications. The Ukrainian
Institute of the Future estimates that the country’s workforce is now down to
approximately 9.5 million, reported news website Ukraine Business News. Just six
to seven million people support the rest of the population — about  23 million
people, including pensioners, children and public sector employees. 

The ageing population poses additional challenges, with forecasts suggesting
that by 2052, pensioners could outnumber working-age individuals two to one.
Ukraine will struggle to generate the gross domestic product needed for
reconstruction unless its population trends are addressed, the institute
warned. 

Also Read
How Russia-Ukraine conflict could influence Africa’s food supplies



CIVILIAN TOLL AND LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS  

Since February 2022, over 11,973 civilians, including 622 children, have been
killed and nearly 26,000 injured including 1,686 children, according to the UN.
Beyond the immediate human cost, demographers predict Ukraine’s population could
shrink by up to 31 per cent by 2052 under the most pessimistic scenarios,
leaving fewer than 30 million people in the country, Down To Earth had earlier
reported.

Assistant Secretary-General for United Nations Department of Political Affairs
Miroslav Jenča emphasised the urgency of addressing ongoing attacks on Ukraine’s
energy and residential infrastructure. As winter approaches, the continued
destruction risks further displacement and suffering. 

With support from the UNFPA, Ukraine has developed a national demographic
strategy aimed at addressing the crisis by focusing on human capital rather than
simply increasing birth rates. The strategy emphasises education, health and
socioeconomic reforms to retain talent and incentivise return migration. 

Also Read
Parts of Germany will phase out coal-fired power by 2030, war in Ukraine
notwithstanding: EU MP Matthias Ecke  


Notably, the strategy includes the concept of “demographic resilience,” which
emphasises the importance of improving society's ability to thrive in the face
of rapid demographic change.

However, recovery remains uncertain as the war grinds on. The path to
stabilisation will depend on rebuilding communities, securing peace and
addressing the deep scars left by conflict.  

Read all the news related to governance in Hindi
Migration
war in ukraine
russian invasion of ukraine
ukraine crisis
Ukraine
Population
Displacement
Conflict
demographic decline
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