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Using natural gas as a climate solution will become a climate problem | CBC News
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Calgary·Opinion
USING NATURAL GAS AS A CLIMATE SOLUTION WILL BECOME A CLIMATE PROBLEM
What is clear is that planned LNG growth is not compatible with a Paris target
climate solution for the electricity sector.
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LNG CAN DISPLACE COAL POWER ABROAD BUT WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED IN THE LONG RUN
Sara Hastings-Simon, Arvind Ravikumar, Shuting Yang · for CBC Opinion · Posted:
Jun 08, 2022 2:00 AM MT | Last Updated: June 8
This is what the onshore part of the project might look like at Grassy Point in
Placentia Bay, N.L., with liquefaction facilities and an export terminal to ship
LNG to markets in Europe. (LNG Newfoundland and Labrador Ltd.)
415
comments
This column is an opinion by academic researchers Sara Hastings-Simon, Arvind
Ravikumar and Shuting Yang. For more information about CBC's Opinion section,
please see the FAQ.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A commonly heard claim from oil and gas boosters is that Canada should export
more liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a climate solution by replacing coal as a
source of power generation in other countries.
The Government of Alberta's own Canadian Energy Centre, the so-called war room,
points to LNG as a tool for emissions reductions, going as far as to state that
"growing Canadian LNG exports is necessary if the world is to meet its Paris
commitments of keeping global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius."
These claims are at best misleading.
Under the right conditions, additional LNG can reduce power sector emissions but
only if there is sufficient existing coal-based generation to substitute.
Otherwise, the new supply of natural gas ends up displacing lower-emitting
sources such as renewables or nuclear.
This makes LNG only a short-term opportunity. By the 2030s, additional
LNG becomes a problem for a world that is cutting emissions to meet its climate
goals. It would either create stranded assets out of costly new LNG export
terminals or lock in emission growth that takes us in the wrong direction on
climate change.
In other words, investing in new LNG infrastructure means either committing to
carbon emissions or putting in a lot of money only to abandon infrastructure
before its designed lifetime.
LNG'S EMISSIONS IMPACT
In our recently published research, we test these claims by asking: Under what
conditions does using LNG to switch from coal to gas in the electricity sector
help reduce global greenhouse gas emissions?
The question is critical for Canada, where 24 LNG projects have been issued
long-term export licences, a subset of which may proceed. Export terminals
require significant infrastructure development, including controversial gas
pipelines and federal and provincial subsidies.
For LNG to reduce emissions, two conditions must be satisfied: 1) methane
leakage along the natural gas supply chain is low, a challenge as recent
measurements indicate methane emissions in Canada are higher than previously
estimated, and 2) LNG displaces coal-based electricity generation rather than
other lower-emitting sources of electricity such as renewable energy.
A coal-burning power plant is seen in the city of Baotou, in China's Inner
Mongolia Autonomous Region. (David Gray/Reuters)
LNG can help in the near-term. There is significant coal-based generation
remaining in the world today that could be substituted by natural gas. However,
in a 1.5-degree or 2-degree compatible world — as is called for under the Paris
agreement — all coal-based generation would be replaced by natural gas or
renewables by 2030 or 2038, making the coal-to-gas transition argument moot.
* VIDEO | How an extra half degree of warming could ramp up climate danger
To remain on a Paris-compliant pathway, the world would need to replace these
natural gas plants with lower-emitting generation. This effectively creates an
expiry date for the use of LNG as a climate solution.
Even this best-case scenario ignores serious infrastructure challenges. For
example, places that would benefit the most from a coal-to-gas transition — like
India with its large fleet of young coal power plants — are also the places most
likely to not have the physical infrastructure such as pipelines to support a
shift to gas.
* Europe's path away from Russian oil and toward renewable energy is paved with
a dirty reality
* Energy transition will be challenging in era of public protests, regulatory
hurdles
Whether a coal-to-gas transition is desirable or even feasible in such scenarios
depends on the cost of building out these new pipelines and the risk of locking
in future emissions by doing so. In theory, LNG could substitute for other uses
of coal in heating or industrial applications, but with the same types of
constraints around substitution.
What is clear is that planned LNG growth is not compatible with a Paris target
climate solution for the electricity sector.
From left: Sara Hastings-Simon of the University of Calgary; Arvind Ravikumar of
the University of Texas at Austin; Shuting (Lydia) Yang of the Harrisburg
University of Science and Technology. (Courtesy of authors)
However, in a 3-degree "business as usual" scenario, where the world fails to
deploy the additional renewable energy required, LNG can continue to help
displace coal-fired generation.
In short, LNG expansion makes a below 3 C increase more likely and a 2 C or
below increase less likely. Warming above 2 C will result in dramatically worse
consequences for Alberta and the world.
CLIMATE INSURANCE, NOT CLIMATE SOLUTION
Growing the global LNG supply to displace coal-fired generation is, at best, a
short-term solution to quickly draw down coal use in the power sector. In
reality, LNG expansion is best understood as an insurance against a world that
fails to act on climate, and any efforts to develop LNG should take this into
account.
* Price of natural gas could climb higher still after cresting multi-year highs
* 2 stalled LNG projects in Nova Scotia may be on the brink of revival
That could mean, for example, building business cases that plan for shorter
operational lifespans for LNG export terminals and granting operating permits
that impose strict retirement dates. Or governments could play a more active
role and structure the economics of a project as an insurance policy, with
near-term profits held to pay for early retirement.
Failure to do so risks turning LNG into another climate problem.
As for Canada's priorities, while individual companies may be limited in their
ability to influence global deployment of renewable energy, Canadian government
efforts to support global climate action may be better focused on enabling
zero-carbon technology deployment than directly supporting LNG expansion.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Do you have a strong opinion that could add insight, illuminate an issue in the
news, or change how people think about an issue? We want to hear from you.
Here's how to pitch to us.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sara Hastings-Simon, Arvind Ravikumar, Shuting Yang
Freelance contributors
Sara Hastings-Simon is an assistant professor and director of the Masters in
Sustainable Energy Development program at the University of Calgary. Arvind
Ravikumar is a faculty member in the Petroleum Engineering Department at the
University of Texas at Austin. Shuting (Lydia) Yang is a postdoctoral research
fellow at the Harrisburg University of Science and Technology.
CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices|About CBC News
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