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2023 NBA DRAFT




NBA DRAFT LOTTERY: ODDS, HISTORY AND HOW IT WORKS

The 2023 NBA Draft Lottery presented by State Farm will be held on May 16, 2023.
Here's everything you need to know about how it works.

From NBA.com Staff


Updated on April 18, 2023 1:28 PM

The NBA Draft Lottery determines the order of selection for the NBA Draft.
Here’s how it works.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

When is the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery?

The 2023 NBA Draft Lottery presented by State Farm will be held on May 16, 2023
at 8:30 p.m ET on ESPN.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Which teams will participate in the 2023 Draft Lottery?

The teams eligible for the Draft Lottery are the 14 teams that missed out on the
NBA Playoffs. The final odds were determined on April 17 after tie breaks were
settled between teams with identical regular-season records.

TEAM RECORD WIN% LOTTERY PROBABILITY Detroit 17-65 .207 14.0% Houston 22-60 .268
14.0% San Antonio 22-60 .268 14.0% Charlotte 27-55 .329 12.5% Portland 33-49
.402 10.5% Orlando 34-48 .415 9.0% Indiana 35-47 .427 6.8% Washington 35-47 .427
6.7% Utah 37-45 .451 4.5% Dallas1 38-44 .463 3.0% Chicago2 40-42 .488 1.8%
Oklahoma City 40-42 .488 1.7% Toronto 41-41 .500 1.0% New Orleans 42-40 .512
0.5%

1 This pick may be conveyed to New York
2 This pick may be conveyed to Orlando

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What is the format for the Draft Lottery?


The NBA Board of Governors approved changes to the lottery system on Sept. 28,
2017. Under the revamped format (which began with the 2019 Draft), the NBA Draft
Lottery will ensure that the team with the worst record will receive no worse
than the fifth pick. Under the pre-2019 system, the team with the worst record
would pick no lower than fourth.

The new system will level the odds at the top of the NBA Draft Lottery so that
the teams with the three worst regular-season records will each have a 14
percent chance of winning the lottery. In the pre-2019 structure, the top seed
had a 25 percent of winning the lottery, the second seed had a 19.9 percent and
the third seed had a 15.6 percent.

After drawings are conducted for the first four picks of the NBA Draft, the
other lottery teams will continue to pick in inverse order of their
regular-season record.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

How specifically does the Lottery work?

The 2023 NBA Draft Lottery will be held Tuesday, May 16. ESPN will air the
results live at 8:30 p.m. ET. The 38th annual NBA Draft Lottery will determine
the order of selection for the first 14 picks of the 2023 NBA Draft. Drawings
will be conducted to determine the first four picks in the NBA Draft. The
remainder of the “lottery teams” will select in positions five through 14 in
inverse order of their 2022-23 regular-season records.

The actual lottery procedure will take place in a separate room just before
ESPN’s national broadcast. Select media, NBA officials and representatives of
the participating teams and the accounting firm Ernst & Young will be in
attendance for the drawings.

Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery
machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of
14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of
those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams.
The lottery machine is manufactured by the Smart Play Company, a leading
manufacturer of state lottery machines throughout the United States. Smart Play
also weighs, measures and certifies the ping-pong balls before the drawing.

The drawing process occurs in the following manner: All 14 balls are placed in
the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball
is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10
seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then
the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is
drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1
pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery
machine for the second through fourth picks.

If the same team comes up more than once, the result is discarded and another
four-ball combination is selected. Also, if the one unassigned combination is
drawn, the result is discarded and the balls are drawn again. The length of time
the balls are mixed is monitored by a timekeeper who faces away from the machine
and signals the machine operator after the appropriate amount of time has
elapsed.

A representative from Ernst & Young oversees the entire lottery process and
stuffs and seals the envelopes before bringing them to the studio for the
broadcast. The announcement of the lottery results will be made by NBA Deputy
Commissioner and Chief Operating Officer Mark Tatum. A second representative
from each participating team will be seated on stage. Neither the Deputy
Commissioner nor the team representatives on stage will be informed of the
lottery results before the envelopes are opened. The team whose logo is in the
last envelope opened will have the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, which will
be held on Thursday, June 22.

The below video shows the complete lottery process from 2022:



2022 NBA DRAFT LOTTERY PRESENTED BY STATE FARM

Watch the 2022 #NBADraftLottery presented by State Farm.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What are the odds for each team in the Draft Lottery?

Each team will be assigned the following odds for teams starting with the
reverse order of regular season record. The default odds are as follows:

Team > Odds for No. 1 Pick

 * Team 1: 14.0%
 * Team 2: 14.0%
 * Team 3: 14.0%
 * Team 4: 12.5%
 * Team 5: 10.5%
 * Team 6: 9.0%
 * Team 7: 7.5%
 * Team 8: 6.0%
 * Team 9: 4.5%
 * Team 10: 3.0%
 * Team 11: 2.0%
 * Team 12: 1.5%
 * Team 13: 1.0%
 * Team 14: 0.5%

In 2023, the odds are slightly different for teams 7 & 8 and teams 11 & 12 due
to tie-breaking procedures when teams finish with identical records.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What about picks 15-60?

The Draft selections for the remainder of the first round (No. 15-30) and the
entire second round (No. 30-60), are determined by reverse order of regular
season record. Each NBA team gets one selection in the first round and one
selection in the second round.

The 2023 Draft order for the remainder of the first-round will be determined at
the end of the regular season.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What is the history of the NBA Draft Lottery and when was it first used?

— 1966-1984: From 1966 through 1984, the NBA team that finished with the worst
record in each conference participated in a coin flip. The team that won the
coin flip received the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft. That team that lost
the coin flip received the No. 2 overall pick. The remaining teams picked in
inverse order of their regular-season records.

— June 1984: The NBA Board of Governors voted to adopt a lottery system among
the non-playoff teams (or the teams holding their picks through trades) to
determine their order of selection in the first round of the NBA Draft,
beginning in 1985. Teams would pick in inverse order of their regular-season
records in the second round (or, before the draft was reduced to two rounds in
1989, in all succeeding rounds).

— April 1986: Under a procedural change adopted by the Board of Governors, the
lottery would determine the order of selection for the first three teams only.
The remaining non-playoff teams would select in inverse order of their
regular-season records. Therefore, the team with the worst record would be
assured of picking no worse than fourth, the team with the second-worst record
no worse than fifth and so on.

— October 1989: The NBA Board of Governors adopted a weighted system, beginning
with the 1990 NBA Draft Lottery, which included 11 teams due to expansion
(Charlotte and Miami joined the NBA for the 1988-89 season and Minnesota and
Orlando followed in 1989-90). The team with the worst regular-season record
received 11 chances at the top pick (out of a total of 66), the second-worst
team got 10 chances and the team with the best record among the non-playoff
teams was given one chance.

— November 1993: The NBA Board of Governors approved a modification that,
effective with the 1994 NBA Draft Lottery, increased the chances of the teams
with the worst records to win one of the top three picks while decreasing the
chances of the teams with the best records. The new system increased the chances
of the team with the worst record of drawing the first pick from 16.7 percent to
25 percent, and it decreased the chances of the team with the best record among
lottery teams from 1.5 percent to 0.5 percent.

— October 1995: The NBA Board of Governors increased the number of teams
participating in the lottery from 11 to 13 to account for the addition of
expansion teams Toronto and Vancouver. Starting in 1996, the team with the worst
record would continue to have a 25 percent chance of winning the first pick.
Teams two through six would have slightly fewer chances, team seven would have
the same chances and teams eight through 12 would have slightly more chances.
The number of chances for team 13 did not change.

— 2004: The 2004 NBA Draft Lottery increased to 14 teams with the addition of
the Charlotte Bobcats. However, as part of their expansion agreement, the
Bobcats were locked into the fourth position in the 2004 NBA Draft and therefore
did not have a chance to receive other picks in the lottery.

— September 2017: The NBA Board of Governors approved changes to the lottery
system effective with the 2019 NBA Draft, reducing the odds so that the teams
with the three worst records would share the same chance (14 percent) of
receiving the No. 1 overall draft pick. The odds for the remaining participants
in the 14-team lottery would be reduced gradually after the top three. Drawings
would be conducted for the first four picks of the NBA Draft. The other lottery
teams would continue to pick in inverse order of their regular-season record.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What is the all-time list of winning lottery teams?

Year | Team with No. 1 Pick | Winning Odds | Player Taken

 * 
 * 2022: Orlando Magic | 14.00% | Paolo Banchero
 * 2021: Detroit Pistons | 14.00% | Cade Cunningham
 * 2020: Minnesota Timberwolves | 14.00% | Anthony Edwards
 * 2019: New Orleans Pelicans | 6.00% | Zion Williamson
 * 2018: Phoenix Suns | 25.00% | Deandre Ayton
 * 2017: Philadelphia Sixers | 25.00% | Markelle Fultz
 * 2016: Philadelphia Sixers | 25.00% | Ben Simmons
 * 2015: Minnesota Timberwolves | 25.00% | Karl-Anthony Towns
 * 2014: Cleveland Cavaliers | 1.70% | Andrew Wiggins
 * 2013: Cleveland Cavaliers | 15.60% | Anthony Bennett
 * 2012: New Orleans Hornets | 13.70% | Anthony Davis
 * 2011: Cleveland Cavaliers | 2.80% | Kyrie Irving
 * 2010: Washington Wizards | 10.30% | John Wall
 * 2009: Los Angeles Clippers | 17.70% | Blake Griffin
 * 2008: Chicago Bulls | 1.70% | Derrick Rose
 * 2007: Portland Trail Blazers | 5.30% | Greg Oden
 * 2006: Toronto Raptors | 8.80% | Andrea Bargnani
 * 2005: Milwaukee Bucks | 6.30% | Andrew Bogut
 * 2004: Orlando Magic | 25.00% | Dwight Howard
 * 2003: Cleveland Cavaliers | 22.50% | LeBron James
 * 2002: Houston Rockets | 8.90% | Yao Ming
 * 2001: Washington Wizards | 15.70% | Kwame Brown
 * 2000: New Jersey Nets | 4.40% | Kenyon Martin
 * 1999: Chicago Bulls | 15.70% | Elton Brand
 * 1998: Los Angeles Clippers | 22.56% | Michael Olowokandi
 * 1997: San Antonio Spurs | 21.60% | Tim Duncan
 * 1996: Philadelphia Sixers | 33.73% | Allen Iverson
 * 1995: Golden State Warriors | 9.40% | Joe Smith
 * 1994: Milwaukee Bucks | 16.30% | Glenn Robinson
 * 1993: Orlando Magic | 1.52% | Chris Webber
 * 1992: Orlando Magic | 15.15% | Shaquille O’Neal
 * 1991: Charlotte Hornets | 10.61% | Larry Johnson
 * 1990: New Jersey Nets | 16.67% | Derrick Coleman
 * 1989: Sacramento Kings | 11.11% | Pervis Ellison
 * 1988: Los Angeles Clippers | 14.29% | Danny Manning
 * 1987: San Antonio Spurs | 14.29% | David Robinson
 * 1986: Cleveland Cavaliers | 14.29% | Brad Daugherty
 * 1985: New York Knicks | 14.29% | Patrick Ewing

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