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FREE PDF AND AUDIO FILES: THE ENTIRE 3RD CHAPTER OF FUTURIST GERD LEONHARD’S
BOOK TECHNOLOGY VS. HUMANITY “THE MEGASHIFTS” IN 10 LANGUAGES
27
OCT 2018
Artificial IntelligenceCulture and HumanityDigital Ethics
THIS CHAPTER IS NOW AVAILABLE AS A FREE PDF, IN 9 LANGUAGES (SEE BELOW)
There has been so much demand on the topic of this chapter – the ‘10 MEGASHIFTS
that will define the next 10 years' – that we decided to release it as a free
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DOWNLOAD CHAPTER 3 FOR FREE
[EN] CHAPTER 3 – Technology vs. Humanity
[DE] KAPITEL 3 – Technology vs. Humanity
[ES] CAPÍTULO 3 – Tecnología versus Humanidad
[FR] CHAPITRE 3 – L'Humanité face à la Technologie
[IT] CAPITOLO 3 – Tecnologia vs. Umanità
[PT] CAPÍTULO 3 – Tecnologia versus Humanidade
[RU] КАПИТЕЛ 3 – Технологии против человечества
[TR] BÖLÜM 3 – Teknoloji ve İnsanlık
[KR] 제 3 장 – 기술 대 인류
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CHAPTER 3
THE MEGASHIFTS
Technological shifts are rewiring society and transforming the landscape.
I believe the coming clash between man and machine will be intensified and
exponentalized through the combinatorial effects of ten great shifts—Megashifts,
if you will, namely:
1. Digitization
2. Mobilization
3. Screenification
4. Disintermediation
5. Transformation
6. Intelligization
7. Automation
8. Virtualization
9. Anticipation
10. Robotization
As a paradigm change is to thinking and philosophy, so a Megashift represents a
huge evolutionary step for society, one that may seem gradual at first . . . but
then has a very sudden impact. Below I explore the nature of these Megashifts
and then go on to describe each of them and their potential implications.
Exponential and simultaneous
Many of the world’s great innovations were born decades, sometimes centuries,
before they eventually swept through human society. They often occurred in a
relatively sequential manner, each following and building on the previous ones.
In contrast, Megashifts might grow slowly as well but many were born together.
They have now started sweeping through society simultaneously and at a much
faster pace.
Megashifts present immediate and complex challenges and differ in nature to the
forces that have swept through society and business in the past. A key
difference here is that a relatively few organizations and individuals that
anticipate and find ways of exploiting or addressing a Megashift can normally
expect to find opportunities and reap the biggest benefits. You may be familiar
with these terms already, but now I want you to imagine them as distinct
technological forces combining to create a perfect storm for humanity.
Technostress? The challenges we have experienced so far won’t even register on
the stress scale when compared with what’s to come…
Megashift 1: Digitization
‘Technology vs. Humanity' z.B. auf Deutsch von Gerd Leonhard
Everything that can be digitized, will be. The first wave included music, then
movies and TV, then books and newspapers. Now it is impacting money, banking,
insurance, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, transportation, cars, and cities. Soon
it will have transformational impact in logistics, shipping, manufacturing,
food, and energy. It is important to note that when something gets digitized and
moved to the cloud, it often becomes free or at least vastly cheaper. Consider
what happened with Spotify: In Europe an individual 12-song CD used to cost
around €20 (US$22)—and now you can get 16 million songs for €8 (US$9) per month,
or listen to them free on YouTube.
While I am a happy and faithful Spotify subscriber and enjoy it very much, this
kind of margin-destroying Digital Darwinism brings a huge shift in business
models and forces most incumbents to transform or perish. In my 2005 book The
Future of Music (Berklee Press), I discussed at length what seems to me a
certainty—that the big record labels that controlled the music industry for
decades will cease to exist because distributing music is no longer a viable
business. Indeed, Sir Paul McCartney has famously compared incumbent record
labels to dinosaurs wondering what happened after the asteroid. While that is an
accurate image of the “psychic whiplash” being experienced by the established
rulers of this once lucrative kingdom, it gives no indication of the speed of
extinction. Crocodiles survived and some dinosaurs evolved into chickens—but
digital Megashifts pay little homage to history and take no prisoners.
In 2010, I coined the phrase “the people formerly known as consumers”; for them,
digitization often means cheaper goods and widely improved availability. That’s
generally a positive, but then again, cheaper goods can also mean fewer jobs and
lower wages. Witness the digitization of mobility with Uber and its rivals
around the world like Lyft, Gett, and Ola Cabs in India. We can now order a taxi
ride using an app on our smartphone, and it will often be cheaper than the
incumbent competition. But will this economy work for the taxi drivers in the
long term, or are we heading into a Darwinian “gig economy,” a situation where
we all work a multitude of relatively poorly paid freelance gigs rather than
regular jobs?
Regardless of societal challenges, the rapid digitization, automation, and
virtualization of our world are probably inevitable. In practice, the rate may
sometimes be constrained by fundamental laws of physics such as the hereto unmet
energy needs of supercomputers or the minimum viable size of a computer
chip—often cited as the reason why Moore’s Law will not prevail forever. This
assumption of continued and pervasive penetration of technology points towards a
future where what cannot be digitized and/or automated (see Automating Society,
chapter 4) could become extremely valuable. As discussed in chapter 2, these
androrithms capture essential human qualities such as emotions, compassion,
ethics, happiness, and creativity.
While algorithms, software, and artificial intelligence (AI) will increasingly
“eat the world” (as venture capitalist Marc Andreessen likes to say), we must
place the same value on androrithms—those things which make us uniquely human…
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GERD LEONHARD
Gerd is a Futurist and a humanist, a leading global keynote speaker (on-stage as
well as virtually), the author of 5 books including ‘Technology vs. Humanity’
and a film-maker. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society for the Arts in London,
and the CEO of The Futures Agency in Zürich / Switzerland. People, Planet,
Purpose and Prosperity is Gerd's credo, and The Good Future is his passion.
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