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BENJAMIN F. EDWARDS: COMPANIES LESS IMPACTED BY INFLATION COULD BE A SMART
CHOICE AMID MARKET VOLATILITY

by Bill Hornbarger, CIO, Benjamin F. Edwards
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The recent decline in U.S stocks , particularly against the backdrop of surging
Covid cases, has left many investors unnerved. Tuesday (Jan. 18), the Dow Jones
Industrial Average was down more than 540 points, a number that is sure to
capture the attention of anyone who watches the markets.

Veterans of equity investing know that one can always find reasons to worry
about market levels. In the current cycle, heightened inflation, a looming
change in the monetary policy regime, and the ongoing pandemic have all been
cited as reasons to be wary of stocks. The S&P 500 has posted three consecutive
years of positive returns, and it has been more than two decades since it was
able to post a fourth (1999). Earnings and earnings growth will be key in our
opinion to the market going forward. We are currently in fourth-quarter earnings
season and earnings are expected to grow approximately 20%. However, we believe
the markets will be more selective and look for companies and industries that
will be less impacted by the current heightened inflation.

After the strong markets of the last decade and the strong rebound from the 2020
Covid bear market, investors are concerned that another precipitous decline
could be right around the corner. In our experience, bear markets are often
triggered by events and not just the fact the markets have been strong for an
extended period. Recent examples include the Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009)
and the forced recession and shutdown of the economy in early 2020 due to the
pandemic. While an event could emerge at any time to shake confidence, the
environment for stocks is still positive: earnings and the economy are growing,
monetary policy, while changing, is still relatively loose, and investors remain
interested in stocks with bond yields below the rate of inflation.

A few things that we feel investors should be mindful of in the current
environment of increased volatility:

 * Corrections happen and are a healthy and normal part of any stock market
   cycle. Using the definition of 10% for a correction, they happen on average
   approximately every 18 months and staying invested through them is important.
 * Stock declines improve the prospects for forward returns from that point. We
   firmly believe that price matters and a decline in price and valuation can
   make for a more attractive entry point.
 * Despite the recent decline, the S&P 500 remains less than 5% from its record
   high.
 * Historically, the S&P 500 index has been resilient around the start of Fed
   hiking cycles. Although the index has returned -6% on average during the
   three months following the first hike of recent cycles, the weakness has been
   short-lived as returns average +5% during the six months following the first
   hike. Moreover, the S&P 500 P/E is typically flat during the 12 months around
   the first hike.
 * Not all stocks move at the same time or the same direction. So far this year,
   The S&P 500 Growth index is down slightly more than 5% while its value
   counterpart is up over 1% YTD.
 * Don’t ignore the “base effect.” The higher the indices climb, the larger the
   point (as opposed to percentage) swings are. On Black Monday (Oct.19, 1987)
   the DJIA fell 508 points or 22.6%, the worst single day for the U.S. market
   in history. Tuesday’s (Jan. 182022) 543-point decline by comparison was a
   percentage loss of 1.5%.

No one likes volatility, but it is a necessary part of stock investing. Stocks
have been one of the best performing asset classes over the long-term and to
realize those returns, investors must accept volatility and periodic
corrections. Actively managing risk through asset allocation and disciplined
rebalancing can help investors weather those periods. Another key attribute of
successful investing is remaining resistant to panic and euphoria and many
investors might be inclined to liquidate a part or all of their stocks in these
environments. History has shown a disciplined approach to rebalancing into that
volatility has been a winning strategy. With the markets still near record-high
levels, and with abundant liquidity, it remains an opportune time to ensure that
one’s portfolio is aligned with their individual risk and return objectives and
tolerances.

MORE ABOUT BENJAMIN F. EDWARDS



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