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Submitted URL: http://url7163.project-syndicate.org/ls/click?upn=fVVQuY7VLG9dAzCKLi3qRFbbPuahyoSyhOzJ39OHftpvyMblpAZMpMMqJ4O9VZ7r2RNsKsPJg-2B8RWEo98...
Effective URL: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-hype-and-potential-in-a-world-of-rising-mega-threats-by-nouriel-roubini-2024-02?ut...
Submission: On February 05 via api from BE — Scanned from DE

Form analysis 14 forms found in the DOM

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POST 

<form class="form form--fullwidth form u-mb-se" id="email-friend-form" method="post" enctype="multipart/form-data">
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POST /feedback/create

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  <div class="edit-preferences newsletter-editor u-hidden newsletter--branding newsletter--ps newsletter--label">
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            Select Newsletters
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<form class="newsletter input-element u-mtb-s form user-input-form" aria-hidden="false" novalidate="novalidate">
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    <div class="newsletter-editor__fields">
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  <div class="edit-preferences newsletter-editor u-hidden newsletter--branding newsletter--ps newsletter--compact newsletter--label newsletter--inverted newsletter--s">
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            Select Newsletters
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  <input name="__RequestVerificationToken" type="hidden" value="CfDJ8EGuzv6kvA1IuShi84C7KavsoxRtY-YqJCzr6MZUNfIXyidkz42refpTkmR-8rVnRCOvJuIoBm6yTPXUBawha_3mJ-zCeqC82ICUvENDUcBu2Hdqxfa65M_POEPEjReWer0n75PrNj4rQYE5WBJ0PZM">
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GET /archive

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  <p id="tab-reset-pw-desc" class="u-fs-ter tab--like" aria-hidden="true"> Please enter your email address and click on the reset-password button. If your email exists in our system, we'll send you an email with a link to reset your password. Please
    note that the link will expire twenty-four hours after the email is sent. If you can't find this email, please check your spam folder. </p>
  <p>
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  <p class="u-mtb-se u-block">
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Name: register-form — POST /account/register

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      <span class="validation">required</span>
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  <p>
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      <p class="u-fs-ter"> If you are not already registered, this will create a PS account for you. You should receive an activation email shortly. </p>
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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE VS. HUMAN STUPIDITY

Feb 5, 2024 Nouriel Roubini

There is no shortage of hope – and hype – about what artificial intelligence
could do for productivity and economic growth in the future. But we must bear in
mind that our politics have proven too dysfunctional, and our policies too
misguided, to manage even the most obvious threats to our future.

NEW YORK – Since returning from this year’s World Economic Forum meeting in
Davos, I have been asked repeatedly for my biggest takeaways. Among the most
widely discussed issues this year was artificial intelligence – especially
generative AI (“GenAI”). With the recent adoption of large language models (like
the one powering ChatGPT), there is much hope – and hype – about what AI could
do for productivity and economic growth in the future.

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    Antara Haldar urges policymakers to heed Karl Polanyi’s warning that the
    economy cannot be “disembedded” from society.



To address this question, we must bear in mind that our world is dominated far
more by human stupidity than by AI. The proliferation of megathreats – each an
element in the broader “polycrisis” – confirms that our politics are too
dysfunctional, and our policies too misguided, to address even the most serious
and obvious risks to our future. These include climate change, which will have
huge economic costs; failed states, which will make waves of climate refugees
even larger; and recurrent, virulent pandemics that could be even more
economically damaging than COVID-19.

Making matters worse, dangerous geopolitical rivalries are evolving into new
cold wars – such as between the United States and China – and into potentially
explosive hot wars, like those in Ukraine and the Middle East. Around the world,
rising income and wealth inequality, partly driven by hyper-globalization and
labor-saving technologies, have triggered a backlash against liberal democracy,
creating opportunities for populist, autocratic, and violent political
movements.

Unsustainable levels of private and public debt threaten to precipitate debt and
financial crises, and we may yet see a return of inflation and stagflationary
negative aggregate supply shocks. The broader trend globally is toward
protectionism, de-globalization, de-coupling, and de-dollarization.

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Moreover, the same brave new AI technologies that could contribute to growth and
human welfare also have great destructive potential. They are already being used
to push disinformation, deepfakes, and election manipulation into hyperdrive, as
well as raising fears about permanent technological unemployment and even
starker inequality. The rise of autonomous weapons and AI-augmented
cyber-warfare is equally ominous.

Blinded by the dazzle of AI, Davos attendees did not focus on most of these
megathreats. This came as no surprise. The WEF zeitgeist is, in my experience, a
counter-indicator of where the world is really heading. Policymakers and
business leaders are there to flog their books and spew platitudes. They
represent the conventional wisdom, which is often based on a rear-window view of
global and macroeconomic developments.

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Hence, when I warned, at the WEF’s 2006 meeting, that a global financial crisis
was coming, I was dismissed as a doomster. And when I predicted, in 2007, that
many eurozone member states would soon face sovereign debt problems, I was
verbally browbeaten by Italy’s finance minister. In 2016, when everyone asked me
if the Chinese stock-market crash augured a hard landing that would cause a
repeat of the global financial crisis, I argued – correctly – that China would
have a bumpy but managed landing. Between 2019 and 2021, the faddish topic at
Davos was the crypto bubble that went bust starting in 2022. Then the focus
shifted to clean and green hydrogen, another fad that is already fading.

When it comes to AI, there is a very good chance that the technology will indeed
change the world in the coming decades. But the WEF’s focus on GenAI already
seems misplaced, considering that the AI technologies and industries of the
future will go far beyond these models. Consider, for example, the ongoing
revolution in robotics and automation, which will soon lead to the development
of robots with human-like features that can learn and multitask the way we do.
Or consider what AI will do for biotech, medicine, and ultimately human health
and lifespans. No less intriguing are the developments in quantum computing,
which will eventually merge with AI to produce advanced cryptography and
cybersecurity applications.

The same long-term perspective also should be applied to climate debates. It is
becoming increasingly likely that the problem will not be resolved with
renewable energy – which is growing too slowly to make significant difference –
or expensive technologies like carbon capture and sequestration and green
hydrogen. Instead, we may see a fusion energy revolution, provided that a
commercial reactor can be built in the next 15 years. This abundant source of
cheap, clean energy, combined with inexpensive desalination and agro-tech, would
allow us to feed the ten billion people who will be living on the planet by the
end of this century. 1

Similarly, the revolution in financial services will not be centered around
decentralized blockchains or cryptocurrencies. Rather, it will feature the kind
of AI-enabled centralized fintech that is already improving payment systems,
lending and credit allocation, insurance underwriting, and asset management.
Materials science will lead to a revolution in new components, 3D-printing
manufacturing, nanotechnologies, and synthetic biology. Space exploration and
exploitation will help us save the planet and find ways to create
extra-planetary modes of living.

These and many other technologies could change the world for the better, but
only if we can manage their negative side effects, and only if they are used to
resolve all the megathreats we face. One hopes that artificial intelligence
someday will overcome human stupidity. But it will never get the chance if we
destroy ourselves first.


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NOURIEL ROUBINI

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Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University’s Stern
School of Business, is Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team, CEO of Roubini
Macro Associates, Co-Founder of TheBoomBust.com, and author of Megathreats: Ten
Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them (Little, Brown
and Company,  2022). He is a former senior economist for international affairs
in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton
Administration and has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US
Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com, and he
is the host of NourielToday.com.

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 * Markus Kirsten  Feb 5, 2024
   Show paragraph
   
   Fusion energy might become an important player in the energymix of the
   future, but even if an economically justifyable reactor can be build, I
   wouldn't bet on a revolution in the energy sector that solves all the energy
   related problems of humankind. Most fission reactor concepts make use of
   heavy water which is a rare ressource.
   (https://www.science.org/content/article/fusion-power-may-run-fuel-even-gets-started)
   
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