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Democracy Dies in Darkness
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Politics


INSIDE THE FIGHT FOR EVERY VOTE IN MONTANA


(The Washington Post)
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In this sparsely populated state, each vote is fiercely contested. Not over
presidential politics, but in a race that could establish control of the U.S.
Senate.

By Rhonda Colvin
, 
Ross Godwin
and 
Whitney Shefte
October 27, 2024 at 6:00 a.m. EDT
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again later.

BILLINGS, Mont. — The ads never stop. For more than a year, the people of the
state have been bombarded with political messaging at every turn — TV
advertisements, radio spots, stacks of mailers sent to their homes.

Machaela Goggins, dressed in a cowboy hat and a red shimmering pantsuit as she
leaves a Billings-area rodeo, summarizes how she finds the hard-to-escape ads:
“It feels like borderline psychological abuse,” she quips.

Montana is among few places that is an oasis away from the presidential race —
Trump or Harris yard signs or billboards are hard to come by, and television ads
for either candidate are rare. Instead, the state is focused on a race that
could determine control of the U.S. Senate, and the next president’s ability to
get their agenda through Congress.

Republicans see the race between incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-Montana) and first
time Republican candidate Tim Sheehy as one of their best chances to unseat a
Democrat and add to their numbers — and recent polls suggest they have some
momentum. Democrats, on the other hand, feel they have a strong candidate who
knows how to run a campaign that survives in a red state because he’s done it
three times before.

On the ground, it is still a door-to-door, vote-to-vote fight to the finish,
with historical levels of ad spending and an intense focus on Native American
voters and potential ticket-splitters.

Here’s more on what it looks like when every vote matters in a down ballot race
of consequence.

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NATIVE VOTERS ARE CRUCIAL


“I think they are getting to know their power”
— Ronnie Jo Horse, Western Native Voices

After tireless weeks of door-knocking, hosting voter education bingos and
registration drives at all seven reservations in Montana, organizers set up in
the gymnasium of Little Big Horn College at the Crow reservation for a final pep
rally designed to encourage voter participation.

“I think they are getting to know their power. We have 37,000 unregistered
voters. We’re trying hard every day to get people to the polls and register to
vote,” said Ronnie Jo Horse, executive director of Western Native Voices, a
statewide social welfare nonprofit. “Once people find that out and knowing that
Montana wins elections on 3,000 votes, you can see their eyes get big and
surprised.”

Native Americans in Montana are the largest minority group in the state, making
them a significant voting bloc when they turn out. In prior elections, Tester
won his seat in part because of support from Native voters and this year, the
Montana Democratic Party announced a multimillion campaign focused on keeping
their support.

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But Native turnout in the state has seen a downturn in recent elections and
community organizers with Western Native Voices, a nonpartisan group, say the
energy surrounding this Senate race has given them an opportunity to ramp up
voter participation in Indigenous communities. They’ve traveled the state doing
voter education and registration drives months ahead of Election Day and now
that early voting has started, organizers are offering rides to the polls.
Driving distance from reservations to the polls has been a long-standing hurdle
that can discourage participation. “On average we have to travel around 75 miles
round trip,” Horse said.




AD SPENDING HAS BROKEN RECORDS



Cam Maxwell, owner of 13 radio stations in Montana, knew the minute he heard
Tester would seek reelection that the race would be good for business when it
came to ad revenue. But Maxwell and other broadcast executives are experiencing
ad buys that exceeded expectations, surpassing the record set in the state’s
last U.S. Senate race in 2020 “This is historical. In my whole career,
especially in Montana, usually we don’t get this wave of spending,” Maxwell
said.

Montanans have been under a deluge of inescapable appeals for their vote, from
the airwaves to their electronic devices. The total ad spending from both sides
in the race since January 2023 and planned until Election Day will come in at
$275 million, according to the latest data from AdImpact. With close to 800,000
registered voters on the rolls in Montana, those figures boil down to nearly
$350.00 spent per voter. To compare, Ohio’s U.S. Senate race, the most expensive
Senate race this year, current figures show ad spending at $495 million during
the same period, around $60 dollars per Ohio voter.




MONTANANS REFLECT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE RACE


“I wish that they would focus more on us as individuals, versus attacking each
other.”
— Tammy Heiscer, Billings, Montana voter

When talking to Montana voters, it’s not hard to pick up an independent streak.
Based on its election history, the state appears to be fertile ground for
ticket-splitting, where voters don’t vote for one party straight down the ballot
during presidential race years. Tester was reelected in 2012 during the same
election when the state voted for Republican candidate Mitt Romney. And between
2004 and 2016, the state elected Democrats for governor, while Republican
candidates for president won the state.

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In Yellowstone County, home to the largest share of voters in the state, county
election officials have been readying for higher levels of participation from
these voters who have been heavily sought all year. In the 2020 and 2022
elections, “we saw about 5,000 voter updates or new registrations. This time
we’re over 13,000,” said Ginger Aldrich, the county’s election administrator.
Aldrich added that the county has also doubled the number of election judges who
will oversee polling sites.

As the intense contest for their vote draws to a close, some Montanans have
grown weary. “I think people are just ready to have an answer one way or
another” Goggins said.

 Watch All
PreviousNext

Machaela Goggins

  1:13

Duane Meyer

  0:41

Tammy Heiscer

  0:44



ABOUT THIS STORY

Text by Rhonda Colvin. Video by Ross Godwin and Whitney Shefte. Editing by Zach
Purser Brown and Emily Rauhala. Design and development by Yutao Chen. Design
editing by Christian Font. Copy editing by Thomas Heleba.


Rhonda ColvinRhonda Colvin is an Emmy Award winning journalist covering Congress
for the Post. She has a M.A. degree in politics from Columbia's Graduate School
of Journalism. Colvin was a part of the team awarded the Pulitzer Prize for
Public Service for her reporting from inside the Capitol complex on Jan 6.
@Rho_Co
Follow
Ross GodwinRoss Godwin is a filmmaker and Washington, DC area native. His work
runs the gamut from shooting feature curated studio films in Hollywood, to
rugged documentaries in remote parts of Africa, Asia, and beyond.
Follow
Whitney ShefteWhitney Shefte is a Peabody, Emmy, Murrow and Pictures of the Year
International (POYi) award-winning senior video journalist at The Washington
Post, where she has worked since 2006. @whitneyshefte
Follow


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