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Wednesday, Feb 8th 2023 6PM 1°C 9PM 1°C 5-Day Forecast
Advertisement




MARK ALMOND: BRITAIN DOESN’T JUST NEED TO RE-ARM. IT NEEDS TO PREPARE TO FIGHT
THE HI-TECH WARS OF THE 21ST CENTURY

By Mark Almond For The Daily Mail

Published: 01:06, 8 February 2023 | Updated: 02:02, 8 February 2023



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There was something strange about China’s high-altitude balloon travelling
across America last week before it was shot down by the U.S. Air Force’s F22
jets.

For six days, the lumbering airship floated some 50,000 ft over the world’s
greatest superpower, reportedly even travelling over Alaska without being
detected.

In an age of advanced satellite communications, Star Wars-style anti-missile
defences, early-warning systems and laser-guided missiles, here was a machine
that would have looked old-fashioned to the Wright brothers, the American
aviation pioneers of the early 20th century.

Beijing’s spy balloon was able to run rings around the U.S.’s top surveillance
programmes precisely because it was so slow and primitive.

The case, I believe, has profound and far-reaching lessons — and we would do
well to heed them. 

Aggressive

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The spy balloon is seen drifting above the Atlantic Ocean, just off the coast of
South Carolina, on Saturday - with a fighter jet and its contrail seen below it

TRENDING
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US braces for Beijing's response over spy balloon
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This week, the Mail has drawn attention to the parlous state of Britain’s
defence capability. As the world becomes ever more perilous, with a revanchist
Russia and an increasingly aggressive China destabilising geopolitics, the
democracies have a clear need to retain mighty military forces.

Several influential voices have called for a vast increase in Britain’s military
spending — and with good reason.

But while new tanks, jets, guns, warships, ammunition and the rest are all
vital, the next world war — should it ever come — is just as likely to be fought
online as on the battlefield. That is why we must match any spending on military
hardware with massive investment in technological defence — that is, our ability
to wage war in cyberspace.

Just imagine a nightmare scenario in which the Chinese fitted a small nuclear
bomb to a second balloon and floated it over the U.S. — to detonate over
Chicago, say.

Given the limited scale of the weapon, the explosion itself might not cause much
physical devastation or loss of life.

But its shockwaves could nevertheless cripple much of the electronic
infrastructure across the eastern U.S..

Mobile phones, internet access, energy grids, water supplies, transport networks
and military logistics would all be hit. Parts of society would cease to
function.

This is the threat for which we should be preparing: investing in the technology
and the skills needed to detect and neutralise such attacks.

Britain is lucky to have a world-beating intelligence and security asset in GCHQ
at Cheltenham. But our systems are still too prone to attack by foreign regimes,
criminal gangs and terrorists.

In recent months, the world has been dazzled by developments in artificial
intelligence (AI). Programs such as the remarkable ChatGPT machine-learning
software, which can answer many questions better and more coherently than humans
do, have hinted at the scale of this capability.

‘Deepfake’ technology, in which computers generate spookily realistic videos of
individuals apparently saying things they would never say in real life, is
another example.

These technologies are aimed at civilians. But you can be sure that our
potential adversaries are studying how to exploit AI and other modern tech in a
future war. We should now be matching their investment pound for pound.

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In recent months, the world has been dazzled by developments in artificial
intelligence. Programs such as the remarkable ChatGPT machine-learning software,
which can answer many questions better and more coherently than humans do, have
hinted at the scale of this capability



My point is that, as regular scandals in military procurement illustrate, a
splurge of cash on huge projects is in itself no guarantee of effectiveness. As
with the NHS, just throwing money at problems doesn’t solve them.

The Ajax armoured vehicle, for instance, was meant to enter service six years
ago. The £5.5 billion project remains beset by problems in development and
production.

Our entire approach over recent years has been unbalanced, with too much money
squandered on prestige initiatives, while the foundations of defence have been
neglected.

All three of the services have been reduced in size, but there has been no
commensurate pruning in senior hierarchies.

In 2019, the Ministry of Defence admitted that the Royal Navy had 34 admirals —
but just 20 warships. The higher ranks of the RAF are packed with air
vice-marshals, yet the entire RAF has fewer operational planes than the average
U.S. aircraft carrier.

These people need to be far better deployed — and better trained, regardless of
the cost — for the hi-tech world of the 2020s.

The truth is that our Armed Forces have grown complacent, the generals fighting
— or at least preparing to fight — the wars of the last century.

After the Soviet Union fell, a misguided belief took hold that Britain was no
longer in any danger from external threats — the world had witnessed what some
called ‘the end of history’.

This led to the theory that our Armed Forces should project British power
overseas instead of protecting us at home. The Army was to be revamped as an
elite, lean expeditionary force, just as the Royal Navy would inspire awe around
the world with two vast new aircraft carriers, together costing £7 billion.

It is a strategy that has backfired calamitously.

Sabotage

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The Royal Navy released images of HMS Portland tracking the Russian vessels in
the North Sea on January 9, 2023

Failed interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan badly undermined Britain’s military
reputation, while the construction of the two carriers now looks like an act of
epic folly.

One has been plagued with technical problems, and both have had to use borrowed
American planes because Britain does not have its own suitable seaborne
aircraft.

The skewed priority given to the carriers has left our defence spending
hopelessly unbalanced. The Royal Navy now lacks the sailors, submarines and
ships to guard the underwater infrastructure — such as utility pipelines and
internet cables — around our coast.

Like a nuclear explosion released from a high-altitude balloon, a deliberate,
sustained, but deniable attack by unknown assailants on this infrastructure
would cause social mayhem and economic meltdown. The sabotage of the Nordstream
gas pipeline last September was a warning shot in this respect — one that has
exposed our lack of preparedness for such attacks.

And this leads me to another key question about how best to prepare for war in
the modern era. It is often a question of proportion.

The former U.S. President George W. Bush, a critic of Pentagon excess,
complained about the absurdity of aiming a $2 million missile at ‘a $10 empty
tent’, and then ‘hit a camel in the butt’, as he put it.

The same mismatch can be seen in the current Ukrainian war, where Western
anti-aircraft missiles, often costing over $250,000, are being fired against
Iranian drones with a price tag of just $5,000. Old-fashioned flak guns could do
the job just as well.

Danger

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Air Chief Marshal Mike Wigston (left) and Station Commander for RAF Coningsby
Billy Cooper (right) with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during his visit to RAF
Coningsby in Linconshire

We also need less ‘sophistication’ in our defence recruitment. The RAF’s
emphasis on gender balance for its fighter pilots, for instance, ignores the
fact that the Typhoon helmet is too heavy for the average woman, no matter how
committed she is.

This is not just a question of redesign: the helmet’s in-built protections and
hi-tech components mean it is always going to be very heavy.

It is ridiculous that, as we learnt this week, the RAF is struggling with
personnel shortages, yet at the same time rejecting young, tough, capable men
who are keen to do the job — simply because of their sex.

Some elements of war are timeless. As George Orwell warned: ‘We sleep soundly
because rough men stand ready in the night to do violence on those who would do
us harm.’

It is critical, then, that increased spending on military hardware corresponds
to far greater and better-targeted investment in how to deal with the sort of
attacks we are actually likely to face in future — as well as on the spying
capabilities that could identify the perpetrators.

The world is growing more dangerous. How we approach that danger now will
determine whether or not we finally overcome it — should the terrible day ever
come when we discover we need to try.

Mark Almond is director of the Crisis Research Institute, Oxford.


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MARK ALMOND: BRITAIN NEEDS TO PREPARE TO FIGHT THE HI-TECH WARS OF THE 21ST
CENTURY

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   Authority for 'targeting minors and encouraging irresponsible drinking'  
 * Michael Jackson's daughter Paris shows her strength in impressive rock
   climbing video  
 * Fawlty Towers set to return as John Cleese teams up with his daughter Camilla
   to write reboot, as tortured hotel manager Basil opens up new property  
 * Suki Waterhouse shows off her abs in midriff-baring tank top during concert
   at Echo Lounge and Music Hall in TX  
 * Lana makes her mind up, Will gets a Wynter thrill and a new bombshell revs up
   the Heart Rate Challenge... all you need to know about Love Island  
 * As BBC star Amol Rajan reveals his embarrassing past as a magazine model...
   Can YOU spot the stars in our teen photo casebook?  
 * Pregnant Carey Mulligan highlights baby bump in comfy black overalls in West
   Hollywood... after revealing she's expecting third child  
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 * Kylie Jenner cuddles up to son Aire, one, in adorable Instagram
   videos... after celebrating his and sister Stormi's back-to-back birthdays  
 * Kelly Ripa wishes Anderson Cooper's son Sebastian a Happy Birthday as he
   turns one in adorable Instagram post: 'Joyeux anniversaire'  
 * Just the three of us! Selena Gomez plays the gooseberry to Nicola Peltz and
   Brooklyn Beckham again as they dine at romantic NYC restaurant   
 * As someone who has been with famous men... let me tell you how it's playing
   out for Leo and the 'manipulated' young model right now, writes JANA HOCKING
    
 * Home and Away star Sophie Dillman reveals a weird detail in her baby
   storyline with Patrick O'Connor  
 * James Corden's Late Late Show to be replaced by reboot of comedy game show
   @midnight with Stephen Colbert producing  
 * Reese Witherspoon steps out in pretty plaid dress while promoting Your Place
   Or Mine in NYC  
 * Pretty in pink! Khloe Kardashian shows off her ample cleavage in a plunging
   bodysuit while promoting new Good American collection  
 * EDEN CONFIDENTIAL: Gino D'Acampo leaves nasty taste with out of pocket firm A
   boss of one of the businesses claims Gino is unfit to be on the board
 * Vanderpump Rules' Ariana Madix and Tom Sandoval pack on the PDA at premiere
   for show after shutting down 'open relationship' rumors  
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 * Jessie stuns Love Island fans after admitting she had SEX with wacky farmer
   in the hideaway... as Aussie islander bonds with Tanya  
 * Demi Lovato puts on busty display while modeling black sports bra and
   leggings before showing off 'glam' makeup she did herself  
 * Sir Tom Jones to defy critics and perform Delilah at first major gig in Wales
   for 20 years after Welsh Rugby Union banned hit for 'offensive' lyrics  
 * Rita Ora sizzles in white semi-sheer lingerie and garter as she poses with
   Sharon Stone who dons pink satin animal print pyjamas  
 * Celebs cheer on LeBron! Jay-Z, Denzel Washington, Adele's boyfriend Rich Paul
   and more pack Crypto.com Arena to watch LeBron James break the NBA all-time
   scoring record  
 * Hailey Bieber is the epitome of model off-duty in sleek shades and low-rise
   cargo pants for lunch with BFF Justine Skye... after Hawaii trip with Justin 
    
 * Slade Smiley's son Grayson dies at 22: Real Housewives of Orange County star
   Gretchen Rossi reveals family heartache after stepson passes away  
 * Ashton Kutcher attempts to explain his lack of chemistry with Reese
   Witherspoon after fans call out awkward poses  
 * Khloe Kardashian poses like a pin-up for sultry bedroom snap... after
   insisting she's too busy for a man following Tristan Thompson betrayal   
 * 'Have some self respect!' Love Island fans slam 'heartless' Lana for kissing
   Ron in front of the islanders just MINUTES after dumping Casey   
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 * 'There is no way he would have ever turned it down': Tom Cruise 'will delay
   work on new Mission Impossible film' to attend King Charles' Coronation  
 * Gary Beadle's wife Emma expresses gratitude for medical staff in touching
   post after undergoing surgery to fix three holes in her heart  
 * Pregnant Rose Leslie covers her bump in a black coat - days after husband Kit
   Harington revealed they were expecting their second child  
 * Olivia Attwood confirms WHEN she will marry fiancé Bradley Dack after
   cancelling her wedding twice  
 * Shane Warne's beefcake son Jackson, 23, stuns his followers by flaunting his
   huge biceps in gym selfie  Has wowed his Instagram fans
 * Ellen DeGeneres Rwanda campus plants tree in honor of late Stephen 'tWitch'
   Boss ... following tragic suicide of dance professional and producer at 40  
 * 'It provides vaginal wellness': Kourtney Kardashian plugs gummy which
   promises to support 'taste, odor, freshness' of a woman's privates  
 * 'She's forging a path solo on the box': Abbey Clancy 'to launch a TV career
   as she lands interior design show' She's said to be over the moon  
 * 'She's not even hiding it': Love Island viewers want Tanyel 'to admit she's
   in love with Ron' after straddling him during the steamy Heart Rate Challenge
    
 * Ben Affleck and Jennifer Lopez will star in Dunkin's first ever Super Bowl
   commercial... which was filmed last month outside of Boston  
 * Priscilla Presley grabs lunch with troubled star Bam Margera... a month after
   the tragic death of daughter Lisa Marie  
 * DWTS pro Jenna Johnson reveals son's name and shares first picture of his
   face... four weeks after giving birth  
 * DiCaprio insider DENIES he's 'dating' model, 19, after pair were pictured at
   party - but WHY did she post and suddenly delete a picture this morning?   
 * Gisele Bündchen cuts a relaxed figure as she chats on phone while daughter
   takes a riding lesson - five after ex-Tom Brady seen spitting with anger on
   call  
 * King Charles tells Turkish president he and Camilla are 'shocked and
   profoundly saddened' by deadly earthquakes in the country  
 * Aussie TV host repeatedly misgenders pop star Sam Smith in bizarre interview
   with controversial YouTuber who claims to be 'transracial'   
 * Netflix releases exhilarating trailer for Jada Pinkett Smith's powerful new
   documentary series African Queens  
 * Gus Kenworthy claims his gay kiss was CUT from 80 For Brady to appease Middle
   America... and says some takes were 'raunchy'  
 * Justin Bieber and wife Hailey Bieber hint they have BABY FEVER as the couple
   share some love to their pal's precious newborn during getaway  
 * Christina Applegate says the SAG Awards may be her 'last awards show as an
   actor' amid MS battle: 'It's kind of a big deal'  
 * Beyonce fans are up in arms after Grammy Awards clip of Diplo sparks debate
   over whether he said 'They bought that' after her record-breaking win  
 * Jessica Alves puts on a busty display in a jumpsuit as she leaves Chiltern
   Firehouse... after revealing she wants a pioneering trans womb operation  
 * Ellie Goulding shows off her choppy new fringe as she takes to the stage in a
   stylish coordinated crop top and trousers in London   
 * Feline fine! Carmen Electra reminisces about her racy days in the Pussycat
   Dolls dance troupe with throwback lingerie snaps   
 * Sienna Miller cuts a stylish figure in a cosy faux fur jacket and white
   tracksuit bottoms as she leaves a nail salon in Manhattan Stepping out 
 * Jana Kramer looks smitten while snuggling her new guy in sweet social media
   snap... after finding love again following ugly divorce   
 * Christine Brown raves about her 'wonderful and romantic' new man after nasty
   split from polygamist husband Kody Brown  
 * Lizzo reveals Adele's real reaction to Harry Styles' Grammys win after fans
   claimed the songstress 'walked out' during his speech  
 * Celebrity Great British Bake Off 2023 line-up REVEALED: Jesy Nelson, Gemma
   Collins and David Schwimmer lead the stars heading into the tent  
 * 'So proud!': Mark Wahlberg shares sweet snaps of daughter Grace, 13, on her
   horse during a show jumping competition Well done  
 * 'Thanks for that image!' Emmerdale's Bear leaves fans nauseous as he makes
   VERY X-rated comment about his night of passion with Carol  
 * Love Island fans slam Lana after she ends things with Casey - but insist
   she'll be back at 'square one' after Ron is 'let loose' in Casa Amor Not
   happy  
 * Love Island's Will Young leaves viewers cringing as he dons bondage gear
   including nipple tassels before crawling across the floor for Jessie Wynter  
 * Rihanna gets waxwork of her sexy Pope look from 2018 Met Gala at Madame
   Tussauds... unveiled just DAYS before her Super Bowl halftime show  
 * 'I find it hard to believe she's the oldest girl!' Love Island fans brand
   Olivia 'childish' for accusing Samie of 'stirring the pot' during heated chat
    
 * Am I the only one who finds Amol Rajan's bumptiousness off-putting? Fans
   think he's a breath of fresh air. But CHRISTOPHER HART takes a different
   view   
 * Twitter EXPLODES over Leonardo DiCaprio's 29-YEAR age gap 'romance' with Eden
   Polani - as users call out other inappropriate pairings  
 * EastEnders fans brand Danielle Harold and Patsy Kensit's performance a
   'masterclass in acting' as characters Lola and her mother make up  
 * Julia Garner is seen for the first time since Madonna biopic was SCRAPPED...
   as she is spotted on casual LA outing with husband Mark Foster  
 * Ashley Tisdale sizzles in cheeky black bikini as she splashes in the surf
   during girls' trip to Maui  Enjoyed a day at the beach on Tuesday  
 * Pamela Anderson wrote Britney Spears 'a private letter' after singer said
   she's 'such a fan' of her... and reflects on 'pain' of being a 'moneymaker'  

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