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Property Types>Office


THE OFFICE IS NOT DEAD—JUST EVOLVING—AND DEFINITELY HERE TO STAY

Though there are many forces at play, an office environment will remain relevant
and important in the long term.

Tal Peri | Jul 07, 2020

Save

The current unprecedented pandemic has impacted many facets of the real estate
landscape, and the office sector will be no exception.

The severity and direction of these implications will vary based on the time
horizon (short-, medium-, or long-term), location (strong micro-location vs.
fringe, urban vs. suburban), building quality, building age, and many other
factors that define the attractiveness and value of an office building.



The current discussion about the future of office demand is mainly based on
surveys or anecdotal evidence like statements from business leaders or a small
sample set of actual lease decisions, and even those decisions may be short-term
in nature.

There are valid arguments on both sides. Below are some common points in the
ongoing conversation.


POSITIVE MARKET FORCES

De-densification due to social distancing: In the short term, de-densification
to accommodate social distancing rules has a positive effect on office demand as
some companies are choosing to rent additional space. This should


partially result in a long-term pattern due to an increased focus on health and
well-being.



De-densification as a general trend: Over the last three decades, office density
went from 300 sq. ft. per employee for the average office user to as low as 75
sq. ft. in the case of some co-working operators. For example, since 2010,
office-using jobs in New York City increased by 30 percent, whereas office
demand only increased by 8 percent. While some of the more extreme density is
driven by economics and affordability, there is a general expectation that more
companies will revert and de-densify their spaces for productivity reasons, in
addition to health.



Delay and reduction in future supply: Office developments that are already under
construction will certainly be completed, but as a response to a potential
adjustment in demand and rent levels, future developments will slow down over
time and lead to a new equilibrium. This will especially apply to speculative
developments.


NEGATIVE MARKET FORCES



Recessionary impact: Recessions lead to bankruptcies, right-sizing, and a
suppressed appetite for expansions, with downside pressures on office demand and
rental rates.

Hub-and-spoke model: Occupiers will likely retain their main headquarters, but
reduce their footprints in densely populated city centers, while offering their
employees flexibility by granting them access to a secondary office or
co-working location closer to home.

Working from home (WFH): The longevity and depth of the adaptation of WFH
policies will arguably be the most relevant factor for future office demand.
This warrants a deeper dive.


ADVANTAGES AND CHALLENGES OF WFH

Advantages: The implementation of WFH during the pandemic has undoubtedly worked
better than many had anticipated and should lead to an increased adaptation of
more flexible work models. The often-cited advantages are lower to no commute
times, flexible working hours, and with those, an improved work-life balance.

Challenges: Certain drawbacks that come with the WFH paradigm should limit
extreme adaptation of WFH and will protect office demand in the long term.

The “mass experiment” of WFH during the pandemic has happened under a sterile
laboratory-type environment, with entire workforces of non-essential companies
working from home. Everyone was forced to work from home and the playing field
has been equal within companies. But many complications arise once companies
apply a WFH policy with no physical presence for a fraction or the entirety of
their workforce, as well as if the duration of WFH is extended. The following
examples are prominent:  

 * Information flow can be asymmetric and lead to dissatisfaction and a feeling
   of disconnection. For senior-level employees, this could result in an
   imbalance in decision-making and an exacerbation of political tensions, as
   employees who are not physically present could lose influence. This may apply
   in the case of promotions, layoffs, and other organizational decisions. 
 * Employees, especially those in lower ranks, will miss out on training
   opportunities and the ability to spontaneously join meetings and learn soft
   career-building skills.
 * The hiring process becomes more complex in a virtual world, with employees
   potentially living in another city or state than their managers. This also
   complicates the creation and maintenance of a corporate culture and team
   unity, which in turn may reduce loyalty to a specific employer, as job
   changes across state lines may not even require moving the primary residence.
 * Questions surrounding motivation and distraction, which ultimately may lead
   to productivity losses when purely WFH. Personal living conditions vary by
   economic situation and stage of life, and can therefore complicate a
   productive work set-up, which is already lacking inherent structure. Parents
   working at home may be encumbered with childcare responsibilities, and others
   may be distracted by roommates in a relatively small city apartment without
   privacy or physical working space. Not all remote working is created equal.
 * Lack of a work persona that breeds an office-based social world where
   friendships and even deeper personal relationships are forged.



Though there are many more arguments on both sides, an office environment is
sure to offer inimitable benefits with regard to productivity, creativity,
motivation, corporate culture and social interaction that will remain relevant
and important for employers and employees in the long term. This explains why
big tech companies create “office meccas” with extensive amenities and company
cultures that spur many of the afore-mentioned positive aspects. Co-working
companies, in the same vein, literally took people out of their homes or nearby
coffee shops and placed them into an office environment. Once the health crisis
subsides with a lasting medical solution, we should see a strong re-engagement
in the office space.

The below recent survey results are only three of many indicators for this
belief:

 * Colliers surveyed 5,000 clients and found that only “12 percent want to work
   for four+ days from home post-pandemic.”
 * Savills surveyed 65,000 clients and found that “89 percent of respondents
   believed that physical office space remains a necessity for companies to
   operate successfully, but the office is set to change.”
 * JLL surveyed 3,000 clients and found that “58 percent of office workers
   missed the office, a sentiment expressed by an even larger percentage of
   those 35 and under.”

Looking ahead, while we can expect a somewhat increased adaptation of WFH and
other flexible policies, the office is certainly not dead—just evolving—and
definitely here to stay.

Tal Peri serves as head of U.S. East Coast and Latin America with real estate
investment firm Union Investment Real Estate GmH.

TAGS: Leasing Real Estate
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