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 * Home
 * About
 * Topics
   * Building Wealth
   * Investment Strategies
   * Market Analysis
   * Economic Trends
   * Special Opportunities
   * Beyond Wealth
 * Meet The Experts
   * Experts
     
     
     ALEXANDER GREEN
     CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST
     
     May 11, 2018
     
     Experts
     
     
     MATT BENJAMIN
     SENIOR MARKETS EXPERT
     
     May 10, 2018
     
     Experts
     
     
     MARK FORD
     FOUNDING MEMBER, THE OXFORD CLUB
     
     May 9, 2018
     
     Experts
     
     
     ANTHONY SUMMERS
     DIRECTOR OF TRADING
     
     February 13, 2018
 * Resources
   * Best Finance Books
   * Position Size Calculator
 * Join The Oxford Communiqué



Home TopicsEconomic Trends Stop Worrying About a Recession
Economic Trends


STOP WORRYING ABOUT A RECESSION


written by Matt Benjamin August 21, 2024


If you find yourself worrying about a possible recession, don’t.

But don’t just take my word for it. Instead, look at the most recent data.

First, check out the labor market. The July employment report – published on the
morning of August 2 – spooked investors because the number of new jobs the
economy created last month (114,000) was significantly below estimates of
185,000.

But the fact that the economy continued to add – not destroy – jobs was
overlooked. And though the unemployment rate has been ticking up in recent
months, it remains very low by historical standards at 4.3%. In fact, many
economists believe the jobless rate has been rising not because of layoffs, but
because people continue to return to the job market after leaving it during the
COVID pandemic. As Martha Stewart might say, it’s a good thing.

Indeed, if layoffs were to blame we would see it in the data on new claims for
unemployment insurance. This is filed by Americans who have recently been laid
off, better known as initial jobless claims.

The weekly claims data is a bit noisy – it can easily be impacted by weather or
other seasonal variables – but it has clearly been trending down in recent
weeks.

That’s made clear in this chart…




SPENDING CONTINUES

In addition, consumers continue to spend. Retail sales fell slightly in June,
and rebounded strongly in July. That’s a very good sign for the economy, as
consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of gross domestic product (the other
components are business spending, government spending, and net exports).




COOLING INFLATION

But what about inflation? It’s also heading in the right direction.

Here’s the consumer price index over the past year…



You can see it has been falling over the past four months and is now below the
major 3% threshold. Better yet, if you exclude the housing component of that
index – which I believe is badly measured – both headline and core inflation are
below 2%, the Fed’s target.

Finally, and probably most important for investors, corporate profits are
extremely healthy. In fact, they’re at a record high.

Collectively, S&P 500 operating earnings per share rose 10.9% year over year
during the second quarter – to a record high of $60.19.



And as Chief Investment Strategist Alexander Green routinely reminds us,
earnings are the best indicator of where share prices will go in the medium- to-
long-term.

So, relax. We have just a few more weeks of summer. Enjoy them.





economyepsGDPrecessionS&P 500

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