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Accessibility statementSkip to main content Democracy Dies in Darkness SubscribeSign in Advertisement Democracy Dies in Darkness electionsHarris’s policy positionsLive updatesElection 2024Presidential pollsTrump’s policy positionsSenate races to watch electionsHarris’s policy positionsLive updatesElection 2024Presidential pollsTrump’s policy positionsSenate races to watch HARRIS AND TRUMP PLACE THEIR CHIPS ON DIFFERENT STATES TO WIN WHITE HOUSE A compressed battleground map has given each campaign a defensive electoral college wall, and they overlap in the crucial state of Pennsylvania. 6 min 2165 Supporters at a campaign rally for Donald Trump on Aug. 30 in Johnstown, Pa. (Jeff Swensen for The Washington Post) By Michael Scherer September 14, 2024 at 6:00 a.m. EDT Democrats have spent the last year eyeing a familiar trio of northern states that would deliver the White House in November: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are the “clearest pathway” to victory, Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign leaders wrote in July — as long as she also picks up a single electoral vote in the Omaha area. Cut through the 2024 election noise. Get The Campaign Moment newsletter. The Trump team, meanwhile, has been focused on its own path in the Eastern time zone, a veritable “Red Wall” trifecta that overlaps with the northern “Blue Wall” around the Great Lakes. “As long as we hold North Carolina, we just need to win Georgia and Pennsylvania,” a Trump campaign official told reporters last month in a strategy briefing. “That is all we need to win. So when everybody is running around with all the machinations, she’s still playing defense.” Advertisement Story continues below advertisement The different strategies, which both hinge on a win in Pennsylvania, have been reflected in ad spending by both campaigns and the super PACs supporting them, according to AdImpact, which tracks spending and reservations on television, radio and digital platforms for ads that have already run. The data shows that the Trump and Harris camps largely agree on the seven principal states where they will advertise and the several more where they have hired staff. But the two sides have deployed decidedly different battle plans. Follow Election 2024 Follow Republicans, for instance, have spent 19 percent of their ad money between March 12 and Sept. 3 in the presidential contest in Georgia, compared with the 11 percent Democrats have spent. Democrats have focused 16 percent of their spending in Michigan, compared with 12 percent of the Republican spending. Republicans, meanwhile, have moved a greater share of their chips into Pennsylvania, which given its size is likely to hold the key to the election if the outcome is close. That state has seen 36 percent of Republican ad dollars, compared with 21 percent for the Democratic side. Advertisement Story continues below advertisement “Pennsylvania and Georgia have taken center stage for the final act of this election,” said John Ashbrook, a Republican strategist. “The map becomes nearly impossible for Republicans without Georgia, and it becomes nearly impossible for Democrats without Pennsylvania.” The fall electoral college chess game, a vestige of 18th-century concerns that the Founding Fathers had about majority rule, always produces complex gamesmanship late in presidential contests. But this year the map is historically small, the margins in the key states are expected to be tiny, and the various paths each candidate has to victory appear more limited. Both major-party campaigns continue to have staff in states such as Minnesota, Virginia and New Hampshire, where Harris made a visit Sept. 4. But both campaigns have focused their spending on a smaller footprint of just seven states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Advertisement Story continues below advertisement Within that core battleground, the Trump team has identified a subset of voters, called “Target Persuadables,” that makes up about 11 percent of the voting pool and is the focus of much of their spending. A separate program within Trump’s coordinated campaign is focused on turning out voters who lean Republican but are not certain to get to the polls or turn in a ballot. The Harris campaign — which has raised and spent much more money — has a more ambitious plan for voter communication, with more money going to more states and with a greater reliance on national advertising buys that do not target specific states. Eighteen percent of the money spent by the Harris side has been spent nationally, compared with 8 percent on the Trump side. Harris also has a much bigger operation overall. On the whole, the Democratic side had spent or reserved at least $933 million for advertising as of Sept. 3, compared with $485 million on the GOP side. That spread could narrow over the coming weeks, because Republicans have been less aggressive than Democrats in making future ad reservations tracked by AdImpact. Advertisement Story continues below advertisement But the Harris campaign has not tried to hide the fact that it has a more geographically expansive plan than its Republican counterpart. “Our campaign strategy relies on a wide map: Trump is all in on one to two ‘must win’ states. We don’t have that luxury. Every single battleground state is close, so we need to compete aggressively in every state to build a pathway to 270 electoral votes,” Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said in a memo to top donors on Sept. 7. The Harris effort, including independent groups, has put about 13 percent of its state-specific advertising resources into Arizona and Nevada, compared with about 9 percent for the Trump campaign and allied groups, according to AdImpact. A win in both those states for Harris would make up for a loss in either Wisconsin or Michigan, giving her an electoral college victory if she carried Pennsylvania. Advertisement Story continues below advertisement The challenge Harris faces is that if she held Michigan and Wisconsin but lost Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes, she would need to win North Carolina or Georgia and one of the two Western states to make up the difference. One of the major groups supporting Harris, American Bridge 21st Century — which has spent or reserved $44 million so far — has decided to focus all of its spending in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Future Forward, the other major Democratic super PAC, has spread its spending across all the battlegrounds, including the Omaha media market in Nebraska. On the Republican side, the two largest advertising super PACs have roughly divided up the states, with a notable overlap in Pennsylvania. Preserve America PAC, backed by casino magnate Miriam Adelson, has focused on Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, while MAGA Inc. has focused on Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Advertisement Story continues below advertisement Recent polls in North Carolina have shown a close race, with Harris leading in an early-September survey by Quinnipiac University by three points among likely voters. That has raised concerns among Republican strategists about the integrity of their eastern “Red Wall.” Democratic strategists continue to view Georgia as a more favorable state than North Carolina, in part because of its higher percentage of Black voters. After Harris’s strong debate performance this week, Republican allies of Trump are no longer talking about the sweep they saw as a possibility this summer, when President Joe Biden was crashing in polling. Former House speaker Kevin McCarthy, echoing the Trump campaign’s early pitch, said Wednesday that voters should focus on the strongest bulwark for another Trump term. “It comes down to two states — it’s Pennsylvania and Georgia,” McCarthy said on CNBC. “If Trump carries exactly what he did before, and he wins Pennsylvania and Georgia, he is at 270. He doesn’t need Arizona. He doesn’t need Nevada.” Clara Ence Morse contributed to this report. ELECTION 2024 Follow live updates on the 2024 election and the contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump from our reporters on the campaign trail and in Washington. Presidential debate: We asked swing-state voters who won the debate. This is what they said. Catch up on the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump with key takeaways and fact checks from the night. Policy positions: We’ve collected Harris’s and Trump’s stances on the most important issues — abortion, economic policy, immigration and more. Presidential polls: Check out how Harris and Trump stack up, according to The Washington Post’s presidential polling averages of seven battleground states. Senate control: Senate Democrats are at risk of losing their slim 51-49 majority this fall. The Post breaks down the eight races and three long shots that could determine Senate control. VP picks: Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a Midwestern Democrat and former high school teacher, to be her running mate. Trump chose Sen. JD Vance (Ohio), a rising star in the Republican Party. Here’s where Vance and Walz stand on key policies. Show more Share 2165 Comments Election 2024 HAND CURATED * Who is ahead in Harris vs. Trump 2024 presidential polls right now? September 13, 2024 Who is ahead in Harris vs. Trump 2024 presidential polls right now? September 13, 2024 * Building on debate momentum, Harris works to gain ground in redder areas September 13, 2024 Building on debate momentum, Harris works to gain ground in redder areas September 13, 2024 * Trump pledges ‘large deportations’; Harris held rally in Pa. September 13, 2024 Trump pledges ‘large deportations’; Harris held rally in Pa. September 13, 2024 View 3 more stories NewsletterWeekdays Early Brief The Washington Post's essential guide to power and influence in D.C. Sign up Subscribe to comment and get the full experience. 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