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FIVE THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW TO START YOUR DAY: AMERICAS

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IN THIS ARTICLE

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By Morwenna Coniam
July 31, 2024 at 12:30 PM GMT+2
BookmarkSave


Good morning. Investors are awaiting signals from the Fed on a possible rate cut
and tech stocks are rebounding despite disappointing earnings from Microsoft
overnight. Meanwhile Vice President Kamala Harris has knocked out Donald Trump’s
polling lead in key swing states. Here’s what markets are talking about —
Morwenna Coniam.

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Spanish Edition newsletter.


MARKETS RALLY

Global stocks rallied, with Nasdaq 100 index futures jumping, as a flurry of
bullish news powered a rebound in technology stocks. The yen strengthened after
Japan raised interest rates. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to
signal a potential rate cut for the US in September later today. Meanwhile, oil
extended gains after Hamas said Israel killed its political leader, stoking
tensions in a region that produces around a third of the world’s crude.


FED IN FOCUS

Federal Reserve officials are likely to move closer to lowering interest rates
from a two-decade high this week by signaling a potential rate cut in September,
though they may stop short at providing details beyond that. The US central
bank’s Federal Open Market Committee will keep its benchmark rate in a range of
5.25% to 5.5%, a peak reached a year ago, at the conclusion of its two-day
policy meeting Wednesday, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Meanwhile,euro-area inflation unexpectedly quickened, an outcome that may make
the European Central Bank warier about cutting interest rates further when it
meets in September.


SEMI STRENGTH

Semi-conductor shares rallied after Reuters reported the US plans to exempt
chip-equipment makers in Japan, the Netherlands and South Korea from upcoming
export restrictions. The Biden administration is still under pressure to take
additional steps to curb Beijing’s technological developments, and the
semiconductor-production equipment companies may still face constraints on
selling to Chinese companies, people familiar with the situation told Bloomberg.


AI INVESTMENTS

Meanwhile, Microsoft shares slid in pre-market trading after itsAzure
cloud-computing service posted a slowdown in quarterly growth. Revenue from
Azure, Microsoft’s main growth engine in recent years, rose 29% in the fiscal
fourth quarter, compared with a 31% jump in the previous period. Advanced Micro
Devices gained in pre-market trading after giving an upbeat revenue forecast.
Now investors are awaiting results from Meta Platforms due after the close
today, with the firm’s AI investments expected to be in focus.


SWING STATES TIED

Kamala Harris has wiped out Donald Trump’s lead across seven battleground states
as the vice president rides a wave of enthusiasm among young, Black and Hispanic
voters, according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll. Harris was
backed by 48% of voters to 47% for Trump — a statistical dead heat — in the
swing states that will likely decide November’s election. The poll offers early
hints that the party’s historic gambit in pushing an incumbent president off the
ballot is having the effect that Democrats hoped it would.


WHAT WE’VE BEEN READING

This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours.

 * Kyiv is hit by the largest Russian drone attack of the year so far
 * Donald Trump attacks Kamala Harris and her husband, as race becomes an
   election issue
 * Outgoing HSBC CEO Noel Quinn announced a further return of $3 billion to
   shareholders.
 * Intelplans to eliminate thousands of jobs to reduce costs
 * The FTSE 100 climbs to a two-month high while gilts rally ahead of the Bank
   of England’s interest rate decision on Thursday


AND FINALLY, HERE'S WHAT JOE’S INTERESTED IN THIS MORNING

Hello and Happy Fed Day. By now you've probably read all of the decision
previews, and know that the expectation is that Powell & Co will set up the
first rate cut to come in September. Certainly the market seems to think that's
a total lock.



So I’ll just keep this short. Yesterday we got the latest JOLTS Data, as well as
the latest update from the Conference Board Consumer Sentiment survey. The
reports dovetail with each other in a very elegant way.

One of the things measured in JOLTS is the Quit Rate (the percentage of people
who are quitting their jobs each month.) Generally, when the labor market is
booming, the quit rate goes up, since people have another job lined up, or feel
that they can get another job easily after taking a break from work.

Meanwhile the Conference Board asks people to just qualitatively assess whether
they perceive the labor market to be good or not.

So one is quantitative (a measurement of people getting their jobs and one is
qualitative (how are the labor market vibes?)

It turns out that both are signaling that things are continuing to cool off in
the labor market. Here's the chart, which shows the Quit Rate Labor Differential
Index are clearly below pre-Covid levels.

Expand


The direction and levels of the line are clear and the question is the degree to
which they still have further to fall, and whether Jerome Powell can pull up the
nose of the airplane at just the right time so that the landing is smooth.

Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on X @TheStalwart



— With assistance from Joe Weisenthal

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