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1. News
POSTHASTE: WORST IS YET TO COME FOR CANADA'S ECONOMY
'Recession risks are higher north of the border, with a bumpier landing in
store'
Author of the article:
Pamela Heaven
Published Dec 18, 2023 • Last updated Dec 18, 2023 • 4 minute read
Join the conversation
Until the Bank of Canada starts cutting, higher interest rates promise more pain
to come for Canada's economy. Photo by Getty Images
ARTICLE CONTENT
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Article content
With all this talk of Goldilocks lately, you might think the economy is out of
the woods.
Not quite yet.
The world’s central banks appear to be ending their particularly aggressive
interest-rate hiking cycle and there’s a new optimism in the air. The global
economy, especially the United States, stormed past expectations this year, with
U.S. growth hitting 2.4 per cent, up from 1.9 per cent last year.
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Article content
But until those central banks actually start cutting, higher interest rates are
still around and promise more pain to come — especially for Canada, say
economists.
While the U.S. might get off with a soft landing, Canada, with its high
household debt and dependence on the housing market, likely won’t be so lucky.
“Recession risks are higher north of the border, with a bumpier landing in
store,” said Toronto Dominion economists led by Beata Caranci.
Canada’s growth will hit a low point in the first half of next year as the drag
of higher borrowing costs continue to pull on the economy.
“Cushy soft is not how we would describe Canada’s outlook, which is clearly
bumpier due to a more exposed consumer,” said Bank of Montreal’s chief economist
Douglas Porter.
“Famously strong population growth of now nearly 3 per cent is papering over an
even rockier performance on the ground, while also pressuring shelter costs and
pushing up the jobless rate.”
Consumer belt tightening is expected to reach a peak in the first half of the
new year, slowing spending to below 1 per cent, said TD.
Posthaste
Breaking business news, incisive views, must-reads and market signals. Weekdays
by 9 a.m.
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Article content
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With businesses also pulling back, it expects growth to slow to 1.1 per cent
this year from 3.8 per cent in 2022, and then hit its trough at 0.5 per cent in
2024.
“This leaves a very narrow margin for error and recession risks are elevated,”
said TD.
Other economists think the Canadian economy is unlikely to grow at all. Capital
Economics has lowered its growth forecast for 2024 from 0.5 per cent to zero. It
expects GDP will contract by 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter and 1 per cent
in the first quarter of 2024.
The Achilles heal of Canada’s economy, the housing market, has weakened more
than economists expected, and Capital predicts prices will fall 7 per cent from
their August peak.
“With affordability so stretched, there is a clear risk of an even larger fall,”
said Capital Economic’s Stephen Brown.
“In that scenario, the modest recession that we forecast could morph into a
deeper downturn.”
Economists at Desjardins expect a “short and shallow” recession in the first
half of 2024 with consumption, business and housing investment all contracting,
pushing the unemployment rate higher.
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Bank of Montreal sees GDP gains slowing to 0.5 per cent in 2024, “with the
economy dancing around the edge of recession in the first half of the year.”
The upside of stalling growth is that it will (eventually) trigger Bank of
Canada interest rate cuts.
Most economists see this happening in the spring, but the month and the amount
varies.
Predictions on the starting date range from as early as March to June or later
and forecasts on where the Bank’s rate will be by the end of 2024 range from 3
per cent to 4.25 per cent.
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BMO Economics
Lots going on in this chart from BMO chief economist Douglas Porter. Looking at
the ratio of home prices in Calgary versus Windsor gives a read on the resource
sector versus manufacturing.
The red line tracks oil prices which in the past have been a good indicator of
the fate of the two housing markets, he said.
It also shows the western city’s recent country-beating strength in real estate.
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Article content
While housing markets across Canada are soft, Calgary is up more than 10 per
cent year over year, said Porter. Calgary dipped below Windsor prices at the
peak of the pandemic housing boom, but has since regained ground. Even with the
recent slump in oil prices “the balance still favours Calgary,” he said.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* This week marks the last full week of trading for 2023 on the Toronto Stock
Exchange. It’s been a volatile year but a rally that began at the end of
October has TSX on track to eke out a gain for the year.
* Today’s Data: Canada’s new housing price index for November, construction
investment for October
Get all of today’s top breaking stories as they happen with the Financial Post’s
live news blog, highlighting the business headlines you need to know at a
glance.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Bank of Canada will cut three times next year to bring rate to 4.25%,
Deloitte predicts
* Expect Canadian real estate market to come ‘unstuck’ in 2024
* Legal team didn’t do U.S. university presidents any favours ahead of bungled
testimony on anti-Semitism
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Calculating the combined federal/provincial tax rate is not as simple as adding
up their respective rates, which can cause confusion when financial planning.
Certified financial planner Andrew Dobson says we should not confuse marginal
tax rates with our average tax rate. Get the answer at FP Investing
Recommended from Editorial
1. Get ready for the 'great adjustment' in Canada's housing market
2. Why the Bank of Canada could cut rates as early as April
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven, @pamheaven, with additional
reporting from The Canadian Press, Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg.
Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter?
Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com, or hit reply to send us a note.
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